NFL Picks Week 5 (Ep. 2700)

NFL Picks Week 5 Recap

Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) break down their NFL picks for Week 5, from Bucs vs. Cowboys on Thursday night to a big split on Eagles vs. Jaguars in London. It ends with Sean Green locking the Steelers and Ryan Kramer laying it with the Lions.

The Jameis Experience And Week 5’s Biggest Surprises

Week 5 opens with Ryan Kramer and his first-place Giants living the full Jameis experience. So far that means two and a half games, two wins and exactly one of them fun. Jameis Winston now seems to know the label exists, and the guys want more of it this week, because Washington is another secondary where you just let Jameis throw.

Then comes the quarter-pole debate. Sean Green picks the 0-4 Texans as the biggest surprise, mostly because C.J. Stroud isn’t the reason they’re winless and the offense played well against the Cowboys in a loss. Ryan Kramer says the 0-4 Chargers, by a mile, and doesn’t think they’re far behind the Dolphins and Titans tier. He also calls the Raiders’ 3-1 start anything but fluky, while Sean Green credits Kubiak’s coaching, Nakobe Dean and a very good Maxx Crosby. Cleveland at 3-1 is the start they won’t buy. The defense hasn’t missed Myles Garrett, but the Browns still carry a negative point differential.

The interception race is getting ugly for some big names. Drake Maye already has seven, Matthew Stafford and Justin Herbert have six each, and Kirk Cousins and Daniel Jones sit at four. That pace puts a 20-interception season in play. Sean Green thinks Cousins is the likeliest of the group to get benched if the Raiders fall out of the race. But Ryan Kramer puts that at 0% as long as Las Vegas stays in the playoff hunt, because a postseason trip would mean too much to that organization.

Bucs Plus The Points In A Cowboys Letdown Spot

Thursday night sends Tampa Bay to Dallas, and the pros look like they’re on the Bucs. The number was eight earlier in the day and now sits at seven and a half, with Dallas minus 495 on the moneyline, Tampa plus 390 and a total of 48.5. It resembles reverse line movement, Joes on the Cowboys and pros on the Bucs. And the Dallas defense gives you every reason to side with the pros. The Cowboys are dead last in yards per play allowed at 6.4 after facing the Giants, Commanders, Ravens and Texans. Nico Collins and C.J. Stroud just lit them up.

The spot is even better. Prime-time dogs of seven or more against teams off 30-plus point games are 17-5 ATS since 2020, and Dallas is smelling itself after Dak drove them down to beat the in-state rival. Week 6 brings the Micah Parsons Bowl on Sunday Night Football, so the look-ahead is real. Dallas also leads the league in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks, which sets up Jalon Daniels on a short week. Josiah Trotter and Rueben Bain Jr. both got full practices too. So the guys lock it in, Bucs plus seven and a half, with a little moneyline action on the side.

The Dog Mask Comes Out For Eagles Vs. Jags

London gets Philadelphia and Jacksonville, and the market made a massive move. The look-ahead was two and a half. Now it’s Jaguars minus eight at minus 380, Eagles plus 310, with a total of 42. Sean Green calls it a disrespectful line and the biggest spread ever for the Jags over there. He also thinks the Cam Jurgens trade, a 2028 second-round pick from the Ravens, is addition by subtraction, since Jurgens had become a liability at guard. Lane Johnson‘s retirement is huge news, but Johnson was already a late scratch last week.

The case for Philly is bodies coming back and a locker room that hasn’t quit. Dallas Goedert and Zack Baun are practicing, Quinyon Mitchell is expected out there, and Markel Bell held his own against the Rams. So out comes the dog mask in honor of Lane Johnson, and Sean Green takes the Eagles on the moneyline with a 21-17 prediction. Ryan Kramer rides the Jagwagon instead. He already bet Jags minus five and a half earlier in the week, he’ll lay the eight anyway, and he calls Jacksonville a great teaser leg. He leans under on the total too, picturing something like 23-9.

NFL Picks Week 5: The Early Window

The early window starts with Indianapolis on a brutal back-to-back road trip into Pittsburgh. Jared Smith pointed out this is only the second time a team has played in Europe and then gone on the road the following week. The first was the 2025 Browns, who got destroyed by these same Steelers. Pittsburgh also comes in with extra rest off a Thursday game. The line moved from one and a half to two and a half, with the Colts plus 120 and a total of 45. Sean Green loves Jaylen Warren against a Colts run defense that ranked 30th before facing Washington.

The bigger edge is Daniel Jones holding the ball. He has four fumbles in his last two games, and the Steelers defense ranks third in havoc rate with seven forced fumbles. Ryan Kramer likes the matchup for Aaron Rodgers too, because the Colts are beatable in the short and intermediate middle of the field, right where Rodgers lives with his tight ends and backs. He admits he’d feel a little better if the number got to three. Both guys lay it anyway, Steelers minus two and a half, and it ends up on the contest card.

Then it’s Minnesota at New Orleans. The Saints got embarrassed on Monday night at the Superdome reopening and missed the spread by more than 21 points. Now they’re catching two at home against the 4-0 Vikings, who are minus 132 with the Saints plus 112 and a total of 42. Sean Green won’t trust Kyler Murray and the worst QBR in the league, and Christian Darrisaw is in the concussion protocol. With a bye next week, Ryan Kramer is ready to pencil Justin Jefferson out. It’s a close your eyes special, so both take the Saints plus two.

Browns at Jets is the first split. New York lays one and a half at minus 130, Cleveland is plus 110, and the total is 40. Ryan Kramer dug up the preseason number, Jets minus two and a half, and decided the market hasn’t adjusted enough for a 3-1 Browns team. He trusts Todd Monken more than Aaron Glenn, so he takes Cleveland. Sean Green sees a public dog with fleas and goes Jets minus one and a half, though he won’t lock it. They both flag it as a Pleaser game later.

Cincinnati lays seven in Miami at minus 330, with the Dolphins plus 275 and a total of 42.5. Joe Burrow is likely without his top two targets, and that line was only five and a half in the summer with a healthy Bengals team. Burrow is 10-2-1 ATS in the third game after two straight losses. But the Dolphins are 23-10 ATS as a home dog after two straight losses, and Mitch Moss flagged that Bengals opponents are 3-9 while Miami’s are 11-1. Add a feels-like of 103 and a bye on deck, and the guys take the Dolphins plus the points again.

Raiders, Giants And Texans Lead The Morning

Las Vegas catching three and a half in New England is a lock-pile play for both hosts. The Raiders are plus 165, the Patriots minus 190, and the total is 45. Ryan Kramer doesn’t see much difference between these teams and doesn’t think the Patriots deserve three and a half for home field. Sean Green has the Raiders fourth in havoc at 12% with 12 sacks and a league-high 11 forced fumbles, which is bad news for Drake Maye’s ball security. New England is also 28th in rush defensive DVOA, so Ashton Jeanty and Mike Washington should find room.

The Giants catch three and a half in Washington, with the Commanders minus 180, New York plus 155 and a total of 41.5. Ryan Kramer wants Jameis slinging it again, because he’ll take a one-on-one with Nabers or Fields down the field any day. Jayden Daniels will also wear a brace that keeps his arm bent to guard against a third dislocation, and that has to be in his head when he scrambles. Sean Green worries about another public dog with fleas. But Washington’s injury report is loaded, and he sees an ugly 15-12 game, so both take the Giants plus three and a half.

Houston at Tennessee was one of the spots that jumped off the board for Ryan Kramer. The Texans are 0-4 straight up and against the spread, yet they’re laying seven and a half at minus 385, with the Titans plus 315 and a total of 37. DeMeco Ryans is taking over the play calling, and Sean Green figures he chose his moment, because this Titans offense with Cam Ward is the matchup you’d want. Houston has won six of the last seven against Tennessee, and tackle Braden Smith returned to practice. Both lay the seven and a half.

Broncos, Seahawks And The Late Window Splits

Denver lays three and a half at SoFi, minus 180 with the Chargers plus 155 and a total of 42, and the Broncos crowd should take over the building. The Chargers line keeps falling apart. Rashawn Slater is out four to six weeks with a high ankle sprain and Joe Alt has a neck injury, while Sean Green has Justin Herbert at the second-worst QBR in the league. Pat Surtain is doubtful and Riley Moss is questionable for Denver, which gave Ryan Kramer a moment of pause. He’d rather just be wrong than get cute, so both take the Broncos with Payton off a loss.

Seattle lays three at home against the 4-0 Niners at minus 170, with San Francisco plus 150 and a 46.5 total. Brock Purdy has three touchdowns and five interceptions in his last four games against Mike Macdonald. Sean Green also thinks losing Kyle Juszczyk and Upton Stout hurts more than it looks. The 49ers haven’t allowed a sack yet, but they haven’t seen a pass rush like this one in Seattle either. Leonard Williams was limited with an ankle, and Ryan Kramer talks himself into Seattle anyway, because Macdonald’s defense can create confusion for Purdy and Shanahan.

Detroit at Arizona is the loudest disagreement of the week. Ryan Kramer’s first bet was Detroit minus five and a half, down from eight and a half in the preseason, because the Cardinals offensive line is down two of five from last week and the Giants just showed that pressure breaks Jacoby Brissett. He expects Gibbs to run hard and Jared Goff to roast that secondary. Sean Green can’t lay points with this Lions defense in a back-to-back road spot before a bye, so he takes Arizona as a home dog. Ryan calls it Sean’s worst pick of the week.

A flexed 10 a.m. kickoff sends Chicago to Green Bay, with the Bears laying two and a half at minus 135, the Packers plus 115 and a total of 45.5. Green Bay was minus three in May, and now Tyson Bagent is a road favorite. Ryan Kramer calls that a bigger adjustment than Eagles-Jags, notes the Bears are one of the more public sides on the board, and takes the Packers. Sean Green keeps it simple. The Bears can run the ball and the Packers can’t, so he lays it with Chicago, even with Green Bay 9-6 ATS as a home dog since 2007.

Falcons In Prime Time And A Bills-Rams Split

Sunday night brings Baltimore to Atlanta, and the Falcons laying three and a half tells Ryan Kramer the market expects Tyler Huntley instead of Lamar Jackson. Baltimore was a four-and-a-half point favorite before the season. Atlanta’s defense has 114 pressures through four games and ranks first in the NFL in rush defense EPA per play, so leaning on Derrick Henry won’t be easy. Then there’s Bijan Robinson, averaging 5.8 yards per carry and on pace for 2,100 rushing yards and 510 receiving. Both lay the three and a half, though Ryan sees no rush to bet it before Lamar’s status is known.

Monday night brings Buffalo to Los Angeles as a three-point dog, plus 140 on the moneyline with a 54.5 total. Sean Green rides Josh Allen, who covers 62% after a loss, 61% as a dog and 65% in a dome. He also expects a Bills crowd and a strong James Cook. Ryan Kramer sees Sean McVay and Stafford controlling the game with long, methodical drives against a Buffalo defense that still hasn’t shown what it is. So it’s a split. Sean takes the Bills plus three, and Ryan lays it with the Rams, a pick Sean ranks as Ryan’s third-worst behind Jags minus eight and Detroit.

Locks, Dogs, Teases And The Contest Card

In Lock, Dog and Tease, Sean Green locks the Steelers minus two and a half, the Saints plus two and the Raiders plus three and a half. His dog is the Bills at plus 140 on the moneyline. His tease moves Houston to one and a half, the Giants up to nine and a half and Arizona up to eleven and a half. Ryan Kramer locks Detroit minus five and a half, Houston minus seven and a half and the Raiders plus three and a half. His dog is the Saints on the moneyline at plus 112, and he teases the Packers to plus eight and a half, the Jags to minus two and the Browns to plus seven and a half.

The quarterly contest card gets a fresh start after a 9-10-1 first quarter, so the guys build a consensus five. The Raiders plus three and a half and the Saints plus two go in first. Then come Pittsburgh minus two and a half and Houston minus seven and a half. They pass on the Dolphins and fill the last spot with Atlanta minus three and a half, partly because Stefanski has seen plenty of the Ravens. Ryan laughs at the collection of teams. Sean shrugs, because in the NFL you don’t bet teams, you bet numbers.

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NFL Week 5 Odds

Podcast Chapters

0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
1:07 The Jameis Experience
4:19 Biggest Surprise: Chargers, Texans, Raiders & Interceptions
12:39 Bucs vs. Cowboys Picks
20:09 Eagles vs. Jags Picks
33:28 Colts vs. Steelers Picks
41:32 Vikings vs. Saints Picks
46:28 Browns vs. Jets Picks
52:06 Bengals vs. Dolphins Picks
1:00:19 Raiders vs. Patriots Picks
1:05:01 Giants vs. Commanders Picks
1:12:53 Houston vs. Tennessee Picks
1:18:50 Denver vs. Chargers Picks
1:25:34 Niners vs. Seahawks Picks
1:31:05 Detroit vs. Arizona Picks
1:37:42 Bears vs. Packers Picks
1:50:48 Baltimore vs. Atlanta Picks
1:56:58 Bills vs. Rams Picks
2:03:28 Lock, Dog & Tease
2:06:27 Circa Million Card
2:09:02 Thank You for Participating in the Sports Gambling Podcast