New England just beat a hated rival on the last play, and the Jets are next on the schedule. The guys see a Patriots team that is likely to look past this one. The Raiders visit the Patriots on Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 PM ET in Foxborough, MA, and the Patriots were 3.5-point favorites with a total of 45 when the guys taped on October 7. Both hosts took the points; the full argument is on the NFL Picks Week 5 episode.
Raiders vs Patriots Odds
The Patriots were 3.5-point favorites over the Raiders, with a total of 45, when the guys taped on October 7.
Our Picks
- Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric): Raiders +3.5
- Sean Green (@SeanTGreen): Raiders +3.5
Ryan’s gut said the number was too big. He doesn’t think the Patriots are a team that gets three and a half points for home field, and he couldn’t see what separates them from the Raiders in the first place. He likes this Raiders offense, and he reminded Sean that Kubiak was the offensive coordinator in the Super Bowl against New England. That offense did all right, Ryan said, and Sean added that they ran it right down the Patriots’ throat.
Sean was with him from the start. On top of the letdown spot, his eye test on the Patriots quarterback hasn’t changed: better lately, but still not good against a good defense, and Sean doesn’t rate the Bills as a good defense. Asked about pressure, Sean had the Raiders fourth in havoc with 12 sacks and a league-high 11 forced fumbles. Ball security is the quarterback’s problem and blocking is his line’s, so Sean called the Raiders one of the big mismatches in the trench report. He also likes the Raiders backs against a Patriots defense he had 28th in rush defense DVOA.
“Sure, maybe this should be three,” Ryan said. “You’re giving me a free half point.” His read is that the book is out on the Patriots quarterback: pressure him, mix in some zone, and he’ll hand you the ball once or twice. He floated the Raiders in a money line parlay before landing where he started. This one feels very much like a lock to him.
Hear the full breakdown on the NFL Picks Week 5 episode, or listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Watch every game on YouTube, and download the SGPN app at sg.pn/links. See all our NFL Picks.
