Super Bowl LIX Player Prop Best Bets & Analysis
Bittersweet moment as it always is around this time as a football fan. It has been a fun filled season but we end it like we did in SB LVII. Will the result be different or can the Chiefs 3-peat? I’m going with the latter but that’s not why we are here.
At one point in time (believe it or not) we had to wait almost a week for player props to be posted. With gambling being legalized more worldwide that is no longer the case. We had props being posted and widely available as soon as Sunday evening after the game.
As we always stress at this network, shop and find the best number. Every book is different and every half yard matters. Below I have listed my favorite player props for the big game. Please remember, just because it is the last game of the season, you do not have to bet the most. Choose your favorite bets and bet responsibility.
X.Worthy OVER 5.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
One of my favorite props for the game. If you tuned into our Pre-game show, you knew this was coming. We saw Worthy have two rush attempts for 16 yards last week against the Bills. His third carry was negated by penalty which would have had the yardage a bit higher.
Utilizing the fastest guy on the field in as many ways possible is a recipe for success, and has been all year for the Chiefs.
There has been four games where Worthy did not have at least one rush attempt. He has carried the ball multiple times in six games – including last week. He is over this number in 8 of the 18 games this year. That seems like a low percentage but when you take a deep dive into the game log, it makes more sense.
If we take away the four games he did not get a rush attempt, he is over this in 57% of the games. Early in the season, he was not utilized as much as a rusher but since December he has rushed 12 times for 63 yards. He has also landed on five yards in four games – falling a hair short of that number.
In this spot, I don’t think we have to worry as he should get two to three carries and reach double digit yardage as he has in four of the last five games.
Z.Baun OVER 9.5 tackles + assists (-130)
One of the unsung heroes of this defense is Zack Baun. He finished last week with 12 tackles + assists, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery. I believe he is in line for another big game – especially with how well the secondary has been playing for the Eagles.
Gameplan wise, I think the Chiefs will try to avoid throwing outside the numbers as much as possible. That has been the gameplan thus far with all of the Eagles opponents. In three games, the opposing teams tight end has been targeted at a high clip. This is exactly where Baun will rack up a boat load of tackles as he did last week.
A comparable game plan is the one the Chiefs had against the Texans. Ten of Mahomes 16 completions were to tight ends. Only one receiver caught a pass and most of those were attacking the middle of the field. There will be a high volume of opportunities for Baun and he will capitalize as he has done all year.
S,barkley OVER 24.5 Longest Rush
If you have been opening your betting app and betting Saquon rushing props, you likely have a nice bankroll built up. We are going to join in on the fun as well but not with his rushing yards prop. Instead, let’s pivot to one of his many elite traits – the explosiveness. The Chiefs rush defense has been elite over most of the regular season, but as of late they have had issues.
There has been three players surpass this number on the Chiefs defense in the regular season. If we expand it a little more – only six players have had a rush of 20 or more yards. In steps the most dynamic back in the game – averaging 51.6 longest rush in the three playoff games.
He is over this number in 10 out of 18 games and 2 out of 3 in the postseason. Joe Mixon and James Cook had ample success against this Chiefs front – in fact I would argue they were underutilized. The Eagles offensive line should get their starting Center back along with Dickerson being closer to 100% after leaving the NFC Championship.
No secret as to how the Eagles want to play on offense. Saquon has seen 25+ carries in 4 of his last 5 games – 2 out of 3 in the playoffs. His total carries prop is 22.5 and his yardage is 114 – I like our chances of him taking one of those 20+ carries for 25+ yards.
Bonus: Both Quarterbacks To Have Longest Rush of 20+ Yards (+1000)
I love this prop due to the willingness both quarterbacks have to run in big games. Hurts will have two full weeks to get that knee healthy which helps raise the floor for this bet on one side. Mahomes is not accustomed to having 20+ yard runs like Hurts, but he’s proven to have it in his arsenal in the biggest moments.
What do I mean by big moments? Well how about in SB LVII against the Eagles where he had a 26 yard rush. How about SB LVIII where he had a 23 yard rush. In the biggest games, Mahomes seems to rise up to another level with his legs. He has 18 rush attempts in his last two games which is the most of any two game span this season. In Super Bowls, he is averaging just shy of 7.5 rush attempts. I like our chances of him breaking a long one in what I feel will be a nice volume of attempts.
This will be the healthiest Hurts will be this post season and a perfect time to unleash his legs. Chiefs will likely send a decent amount of blitzes and all it takes is one slipped tackle and it’s off to the races. Against a similar defense in SB LVII, Hurts had a 28 yard rush and if we fast forward to this year – he has had eight 20+ yard rushes.
He finished with a 28 yard rush and his attempts will likely be higher than it has all playoffs. Would not be shocked if he has multiple 20+ yard runs.