Coming into this game, the overarching narrative is that Ohio State is in a class of its own and Texas got lucky. To me, it depends on who you are a fan of and how you use the data to get to your conclusion.
The most recent two games would suggest that Ohio St is in a class of their own, BUT what about the other 12 data points? Do we throw those out? Were they holding back? Is Ryan Day all of a sudden a great coach? All of these are questions that if you can answer confidently, you can easily end up on one side or the other.
In the case of Texas – they are coming off a near loss after choking away yet another big lead. I ask the same question we did with Ohio St – do we negate those prior data points? Some would say that Texas has been the more consistent team and this point spread is way off if you’re factoring in priors.
Both can be true, but let’s break it down from each side and see if we can find some value
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College Football Playoff: Texas vs Ohio State (-6) Preview and Predictions
Jan 10, 2025
7:30 PM EST
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, TX)
ESPN
How Does Texas Win
They have to get a good Ewers game and Sark has to call a hell of a game. On a down-to-down basis, they have to be more consistent. A perfect example of this would be the contrast of halves they played against Arizona State. Numerous sections of the game where they had a chance to put the game out of reach and they failed to do so.
When Texas has not been able to run the ball, they lose. It does not get anymore simpler than that. In their two losses, they combined for 60 rushing yards. If you are a Texas fan, you know how valuable this offensive line is and has been. Last week they were missing their right tackle (Cam Williams) who was top 20 in run blocking grade (PFF) when they ran their outside zone scheme. All indications are that he is ready to go, so the run game could see a lot more success than it did last week.
Will we see more Arch Manning packages? Part of the success teams had has been with the quarterback run. Ewers is not a statue but he does not have the elusiveness of Arch. Don’t be shocked to see Ewers take off a few times as well, especially being that Ohio State runs a lot of zone.
Two key components must happen for Texas to win this game. The offense has to be balanced and able to not be predictable. Along with that comes executing in the red zone. We saw Auburn who’s been a reliable kicker miss a few kicks last week. You do not want to rely on field goals against this Buckeye team. Get in the red zone and score touchdowns – field goals are not going to beat Ohio State.
How Does Ohio State Win
This will be the best defense the Buckeyes have faced all year. Can they execute at a high level like the past two weeks or was that an aberration? The offense has been clicking on all cylinders but the defense is not being talked about enough. They have held both of their opponents to a combined 38 points and under 300 total yards. Keep in mind that through the first halves of these games, they were leading 55-18. Of those 38 points allowed, 20 came in the second half – mostly all garbage time.
Shutting down the run should be at the top of the scouting report. We’ve seen what Texas is when they are not running the ball effectively. This front is more than capable of doing so and forcing Ewers to beat them – which is not how Texas wants to play. Much like Texas’s defense, the Ohio State defense has been fairly consistent and I know what I’m getting when they step on the field.
Offensively is where the questions are. It has been great over the last few weeks – let us not forget that Will Howard has still been average at best in the totality of the season. He is not going to be allowed to be average here. Controlling the line of scrimmage and staying in 3rd and shorts will minimize the Will Howard mistakes he is sometimes prone to.
Texas +6
The third time is a charm, right? I understand why the number is what it is but I believe a little too much recency bias is baked into this. Ohio State should be favored, but we are talking nearly a touchdown with Texas having some home-field advantage. Will Howard has been phenomenal the last two weeks but this is an entirely different defense at every level.
On defense, the Longhorns have to keep Ohio State off schedule. You want to limit Jeremiah Smith as much as you can but stopping the ground game should be the top priority. When Howard is in obvious passing downs, he is a lot less effective, and the only way to get him there is to disrupt the run game.
Offensively, I trust Sark to have something dialed up. I worry that he gets away from the run game too early and we get a few turnovers with Ewers trying to save the day. He responded well when adversity hit and Arizona State was making their run. It would be nice to see it more consistently and not wait until they have to have it.
Big number here and I think this plays more to a field goal game. Texas has the tools to pull the “upset” if they can do the aforementioned things above. I’ll say it again, consistency has to be there. The defense I think will show up and be the best unit on the field. Creating a few turnovers and short fields for their offense in key moments will be why Texas not only covers but wins this outright.
Gunnar Helm Over 44.5 Receiving Yards
For about 3.5 quarters, Helm was rather quiet and was held catchless. He ended up with 56 yards on 3 receptions with limited targets. Before this game, he had 4 or more receptions in seven of the last ten games.
When he catches four or more passes, he is over this number in seven of eight games. In fact, when the competition has been at its highest, we’ve seen Helm elevate his game. Against power four opponents he’s over in six of the nine games – averaging around 71 yards in those nine games.
The Buckeyes have not faced many tough tight ends. We saw Terrance Ferguson of Oregon have success (62 & 71 yards) – also Tyler Warren had 47 receiving yards.
Expecting a lot of play-action with shots over the middle to test those linebackers in coverage. The volume alone should give us a high floor with this one. Don’t be afraid to ladder him up to 60 or even 70 yards.
