The Melbourne Cup favorite always has a lot to live up to, considering the names of the past. Phar Lap was so heavily expected to win the race that most bookmakers flat out refused to take bets on him. Makybe Diva experienced such a Brady-esque dominance between 2003-05, that no other horse has been given shorter odds to win since.
But those are the exceptions. The truth is, most of the time, the favorite does not win the race. The race is a final, with expected favorites, sure, but there is far more variance compared to other sports like the 100m sprint or a 1v1 playoff final.
To analyze whether it’s worth betting on the horse given top billing in 2024, there are several factors to consider:
Analyzing Frequency of Wins
First, let’s explore historic stats. They can be helpful, but can also muddy the waters. When analyzing the entirety of the race’s long history, you’d come to this conclusion: the favorite is a solid bet.
Going back to the race’s inception in the 19th century, we have a win rate of 21% for the favorite horse. The benefit of having data that goes that far back is a sample size. However, a single race a year means it can be deceiving.
Consider this: in the last twenty years, only 3 favorites have won. Two of those wins come from Makybe Diva, a legendary horse that puts the results in the anomaly bucket.
Also consider that the bookies are now far more careful with how odds are compiled, which is far different from the 1860s, when the race began its long history. The Melbourne Cup is the race that grips Australia, a prime-time televised event, close to something like the Super Bowl. The odds are finely tuned, but the favorites are also often overvalued.
This is partly because many people will either place bets on the horses with the longest odds (hoping to win big on a small bet), or they will go heavy on the favorite. This tends to skew the odds, with companies shortening the odds to minimize risk. If you glance at the odds and think they give you the probability any given event will occur, you’re only getting half the picture.
Nevertheless, the favorite is the favorite for a reason. So yes, Jan Brueghel certainly has a very good chance of winning this race. Most analysts expect him to at the very least place in the top 3. The most recent reports from his camp, including interviews with foreman Kieran Murphy, are all very positive.
However, there are other horses capable of winning, too.
Vauban’s Redemption Race?
One of the main contenders to edge Jan Brueghel out is Vauban. Last year, Willie Mullins entered Vauban for the Melbourne Cup with a lot of fanfare. Great performances throughout the season, with equally great prospects for the big race.
The bookies agreed. Entering with a price of 9/2, he was the clear favorite to take home the top spot. On race day, however, Vauban never looked like he would fulfill the promise, and ultimately finished 14th.
Ouch… For this year, the Mullins team has made the necessary adjustments. Putting more emphasis on training and getting plenty of racing under their belt, it looks like Vauban will arrive fit and ready to go.
If you want to be a little more out there, consider Absurde. The odds are a little longer, although still amongst the favorites, and he’s part of the Mullins team.
Do you think that they’re going about it in the right way? If you’re confident, it may be worth putting a bet on both horses.
Deliver = Win?
Ultimately, the statistics point to the favorite coming up short once again. However, the favorites as a collective tend to do well. The winners tend to come from the top 5. Without a Fight wasn’t at the top of the billing, yet his odds were a very respectable 7/1.
Now we have to mention whether success or as the title of the article says, deliver, is equal to winning. Not always the case, especially when placing a bet.
If you’re not feeling too confident about absolutes, but think your tipped horse is at least going to do well in the race, you can bet on your horse’s placing (i.e. top 3). This is standard practice when it comes to horse race betting, so most bookies will take that bet. In the last few years, 3/8 favorites have placed in the top 3.
This may be a better punt than betting on the winner. For example, Jan Brueghel is at 9/2, but you can also bet on Land Legend placing for a similar price. Recently placing third at the Caulfield Cup, many are looking to the French-born horse to also do well at Melbourne.
