It’s the final race of NASCAR’s regular season! The series heads to the famed Darlington Raceway known by her famous nicknames “The Track Too Tough to Tame” and “The Lady in Black.” Let’s set the stage with the NASCAR picks, odds, and best bets for the Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway.
NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Best Bets Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway
Harrison Burton shocked everyone Saturday night at Daytona International Speedway with an 80/1 upset win, taking him from 34th in the point standings to a playoff berth. That leaves a lot of drama for Sunday evening’s Southern 500.
Five drivers are battling for the final three spots in the playoffs unless another new winner upsets that apple cart. Martin Truex Jr enters the weekend +58, Ty Gibbs +39, and Chris Buscher +21. These three are currently in the playoffs with Bubba Wallace -21 and Ross Chastain -27 on the outside looking in.
Martin Truex Jr locks himself in if there is no new winner, and even with a new winner would need a lot of things to go wrong to miss. Ty Gibbs just needs to finish 20th or better if there is no new winner and he doesn’t score any stage points.
While the Coca-Cola 600 is the longest race of the NASCAR season, it could be argued the Southern 500 is the most grueling race of the season on both the driver and the equipment. The extra 100 miles over the spring race will come into play and bets hitting after 400 miles may change by the time 500 hits. With that being said, keep those extra 100 miles in mind when placing your bets for the final race of the regular season.
F1 Italian Grand Prix Odds and Best Bets
NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Best Bets Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway
Kyle Larson +550
Tyler Reddick +650
Denny Hamlin +650
Brad Keselowski +1200
Martin Truex Jr +1200
William Byron +1200
Ty Gibbs +1600
Christopher Bell +1600
Chris Buescher +1800
Ryan Blaney +2000
Joey Logano +2000
Chase Elliott +2200
Ross Chastain +2300
Kyle Busch +2400
Bubba Wallace +2800
Erik Jones +3700
Alex Bowman +5000
Josh Berry +5000
Chase Briscoe +7500
Noah Gragson +7500
Michael McDowell +12500
Austin Cindric +12500
Todd Gilliland +12500
Daniel Suarez +15000
Austin Dillion +25000
Justin Haley +25000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +25000
Carson Hocevar +30000
Corey Lajoie +30000
Shane Van Gisbergen +30000
John Hunter Nemechek +50000
Ryan Preece +50000
Harrison Burton +75000
Zane Smith +100000
Daniel Hemric +150000
Timmy Hill +500000
Kaz Grala +500000
Chase Elliott Top 10 (+110)
This is my favorite bet on the board for this year’s Southern 500 at Darlington. Chase Elliott has been one of the most consistent drivers throughout the 2024 season. He enters this weekend third in the driver standings for the regular season just -18 points behind Tyler Reddick. Elliott only has two finishes worse than 20th on the entire season: both at wild card races last week at Daytona and the Chicago Street course.
Elliott has a top 10 in three of the last five races at Darlington, however, the one black mark against this bet is in two of the last three Southern 500’s Elliott hasn’t made it to the end of the race. He made up for it last year with an eighth place run. You don’t need him to have a stellar night, just survive until the end and be in the top 10. That’s not too much to ask from a driver and car like this. His outright bet to win the race (+2200) is also worth a bet.
Ty Gibbs Over Martin Truex Jr (+105)
This matchup of teammates puts the old veteran up against the young stud. While you may think, 500 miles you should give the advantage to the better, it’s been a tough go of it lately for Truex. In the last 14 races, Truex has only finished better than 24th in two of them.
For young Gibbs, he’s coming off two straight top-five finishes and is locked in a tight battle on the playoff cut line. Gibbs finished second in the spring to Truex’s 25th. They’ve split the head-to-head matchups in their only two Southern 500s against each other. In six of the last eight races this season, Gibbs has gotten the better of Truex. Perhaps he’s already looking toward that retired life?
Chris Buescher Top Finishing Ford (+550)
When you break down the group of Ford drivers in this race, Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano are the only ones with shorter odds than Buescher. It drops to +1400 for Josh Berry, the next driver on the list. So this should be a race between four guys if things go as the odds suggest.
Buscher can easily just outrace those three ahead of him, but also some of those drivers could drop out of the long race. With top Ford, it doesn’t limit you to the top 10 or top five. All he has to do is beat the other Fords! Buescher has been strong at Darlington. He finished third in last year’s 500, ninth and 12th the previous two seasons.
In the spring race he was battling for the win with Tyler Reddick before the two got together, and neither finished well. Buscher enters the race as the last driver on the bubble, just 21 points to the good. He needs a strong day and his team will throw everything they can into the car this weekend.
A shove and words exchanged!
Buescher very upset with Reddick! #NASCAR pic.twitter.com/6FkorB79tl
— Noah Lewis (@Noah_Lewis1) May 12, 2024
Tyler Reddick to Win (+650)
I’m all in on Tyler Reddick this week. He enters the race as the points leader and will be driving a car with his car owner Michael Jordan on the hood this week. Before the wild card Daytona race last week, Reddick was on a streak of seven top-six finishes in a row.
Last year in the Southern 500, Reddick finished second place in his 23XI Toyota. In 2022 he finished third place in his RCR Chevrolet. He’s been good in both manufacturers and with both teams over the last two years in this race, and then led 174 laps this spring before that dust-up with Chris Buescher. Everything is pointing Tyler Reddicks’ way right now, and I’m going to ride that.
