I hope everyone got those conference winners’ best bets in the portfolio. Now, we finish off the futures with some awards markets. These are not as widely available as win totals, but a few prominent books have them posted. Always be sure to shop around for the best number. Here is my College Football Awards best bets and analysis.
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College Football Awards Best Bets & Analysis
Doak Walker Award
Omarion Hampton – North Carolina – (+1500)
If you are not a power-five running back or one that will not get 20+ touches a game, this is not your award. Omarion Hampton had over 225 carries for slightly over 1500 yards and 15 touchdowns. Those numbers are with a top-three pick at quarterback and an inconsistent offensive line.
With a downgrade at quarterback, expect the offense to run through Hampton. The offensive line loses four starters, so you don’t want them to pass-protect all game. Why not lean on Hampton, who can literally carry you to victory?
You can draw a line through any running back duo (Judkins-Henderson) and the previous year’s winner (Ollie Gordon). The last repeat winner was in 2019 when Jonathan Taylor went back-to-back. The game has changed since then, but Hampton is an old-school running back with the potential to score 20 touchdowns.
The historical data for this award are a bit skewed due to playing style. Look no further than the 21-touchdown average over the last ten years, but five of the last eight have gone under 20.
Yardage is the same way. Before Najee in 2020, seven straight winners had 2000+ yards. Ollie Gordon’s 1732 was the most since Taylor in 2019. The last five winners have averaged just under 1700 yards.
Hampton can get to 1800 and 20 touchdowns, putting him at the top of the contention list. He would be the first winner from the ACC since 2013 (Andre Williams). There are a lot of questions about the Tarheel offense, but running back is not one of them.
I expect around 285 carries, and don’t forget that he can also catch out of the backfield. At this price, it’s too good to pass up.
Fred Biletnikoff Award
Tez Johnson – Oregon – (+1500)
It’s one of the hardest awards to handicap with so many moving parts, but here we are. A quarterback injury can ruin any receiver from having that special season that they and many others projected. Also, if your secondary receiver goes down, it’s more attention on you, which decreases those numbers.
When trying to find a few guys to bet on, I went for a receiver who I could see persevering through those potential issues. Tez Johnson finished with over 80 catches and just under 1220 receiving yards. He did this as a “secondary” option in one of the nation’s best offenses.
He enters this year with a loaded receiver room and two capable quarterbacks. Last year’s winner (Marvin Harrison Jr) did not have overly daunting numbers compared to what Johnson did. The last two winners finished with under 1300 yards and 70 receptions.
If we filter the last ten years, the winners have averaged around 1500 yards and 85 receptions. Those numbers are certainly attainable for Johnson in one of the most prolific offenses in the country.
Only two teams in the last ten years have been outside the top five offensively and had a receiver win—Amari Cooper in 2014 and Harrison Jr. last year.
The Ducks finished second in offense last year, and I don’t see any signs of them slowing down. Johnson is flying under the radar, but the volume, production, and primetime games are there. He would be the first-ever Oregon receiver to win this award, but it won’t surprise us with this ticket in our pocket.
Bear Bryant Award
Ryan Day – Ohio St – (+900)
Since writing this, the price has moved to +900 from +1200. We lose a little value, but it’s still some meat on the bone. An Ohio State coach has not won the Bear Bryant since 2002. That team finished with a national title, which is what expectations are for this Buckeye team.
There was no formula or trends to help figure out who should get this award. After browsing past winners, I found that it is either a surprise team/coach combo (TCU 22’) or a dominant combo (LSU 19’).
Ryan Day and Ohio State have a real chance to dominate from start to finish. They have a few road bumps, but with expanded conferences, going undefeated is unlikely for most teams. Even with a loss, if Day can lead the Buckeyes to a Big Ten championship, he is a good candidate for this award.
No coach who has lost more than two games has won this award since 1994. Four of the last seven winners have gone unbeaten. The expanded playoff and conferences slightly alter the criteria, but Ryan Day has the team to run the table.
A Big Ten championship and a win over Michigan while finishing with one loss or fewer will bring one of the most illustrious college football awards to Ryan Day and cash this bet for us!
