Some people like to sweat out a bet for 9 hard innings – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with MLB NRFI and YRFI picks. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our NRFI bets for July 10. Go here for MLB World Series odds.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the best-hitting team or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these NRFI and YRFI props for July 10. Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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MLB NRFI and YRFI Picks – July 10
Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles
First Pitch – 6:35 pm EST
Camden Yards – Baltimore, Maryland
Broadcast – MLB TV
Yesterday I wrote about how Shota Imanaga was being undervalued in the NRFI market right now due to a couple of rough starts – only then to see him pushed to today. As I said then, Imanaga hasn’t been the lights out version we saw at the beginning of the year. However, we have two things working for us here. Firstly, the Orioles don’t do much of their run scoring early. Despite being the best scoring team, they rank 12th in first inning runs. Secondly, Imanaga hasn’t been his Cy Young self lately, but he does have back-to-back quality starts with no runs in the first inning. The most recent of which was against the Phillies, who are the best at scoring runs in the first inning.
In addition to having some faith on Imanaga, especially with an extra day of rest, he’s being paired with an even better pitcher here. Previously, I made the case for Dean Kramer to keep these Cubs bats quiet. Today they’ll see Corbin Burnes instead. He carries a 2.32 ERA into Wednesday’s contest and is every bit of a Cy Young candidate at this point. The Cubs are 20th in the majors in scoring runs, and as a result, I don’t expect them to get to Burnes at all. He should be able to bring home the NRFI for us.
NRFI/YRFI Bet for July 10: No (-130)
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres
First Pitch – 8:10 pm EST
Guaranteed Rate Field – Chicago, Illinois
Broadcast – MLB TV
To kick off this NRFI, the Mariners will look to get to Michael King early. I don’t like their chances for a number of reasons – the most pominent of them is their hitting. Despite holding a two-game lead over the Astros in the AL West, the Mariners are 27th in run scoring in the majors. They’ve scored just two more runs than the last place Athletics on the year.
I don’t expect facing Michael King to change their fortunes. One of the key trade chips that convinced the Padres to trade away Juan Soto, King has been quite good in response. He’s got a 3.51 ERA on the year and has held three of his last four opponents to just one run. That includes a game with the hot-hitting Phillies, who he limited to just one striking out six.
The bottom half of the inning will be a bit more of a sweat. The Padres are far better hitting and have done well this year in the first inning. However, I’m going to throw my confidence behind Bryce Miller. He’s held opponents to two or fewer runs in four of his last five starts. We’ve also seen his strikeout numbers come back up a bit as of late, which should help him here.
NRFI/YRFI Bet for July 10: No (-130)
If you’d like even more info to help make your NRFI picks for July 10, check out the MLB Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar with their MLB picks today.
