NASCAR leaves the Midwest and heads to the Northeast this weekend. Loudon, New Hampshire, to be exact. The stars of NASCAR will take on the 1.058-mile flat surface known as the “magic mile.” Let’s take a look at this week’s NASCAR picks, odds, and best bets for the USA Today 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
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NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Best Bets: USA Today 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Last week was an exciting one for the first-ever Cup Series race at Iowa Speedway in Newton, Iowa. Defending Series champion Ryan Blaney made up for running out of fuel a few weeks ago to claim his first victory of 2024. The biggest question after Iowa is, what happened to the Toyotas? Based on the odds, the books don’t think that’ll translate to this weekend in New Hampshire, and I agree with that. We’ll chalk it up to the unknowns of a new track and move on.
USA Today 301 Odds
Christopher Bell +450
Martin Truex Jr +500
Denny Hamlin +600
Kyle Larson +700
Ryan Blaney +700
Joey Logano +800
Chase Elliott +1200
William Byron +1200
Brad Keselowski +1800
Ty Gibbs +2000
Tyler Reddick +2500
Ross Chastain +3000
Chris Buescher +4000
Josh Berry +4000
Kyle Busch +4500
Bubba Wallace +5000
Alex Bowman +6000
Chase Briscoe +10000
Noah Gragson +10000
Daniel Suarez +20000
Austin Cindric +30000
Michael McDowell +30000
Carson Hocevar +30000
Justin Haley +30000
Ryan Preece +30000
Todd Gilliland +30000
Austin Dillion +50000
Erik Jones +50000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +50000
Corey Lajoie +100000
Harrison Burton +100000
Zane Smith +100000
John Hunter Nemechek +100000
Daniel Hemric +500000
Kaz Grala +500000
Ty Dillion +500000
USA Today 301 Best Bets
Todd Gilliland Over Daniel Suarez (-110)
It’s always fun when the books give you options that will keep your attention up and down the pylon throughout the day, and this is one of those matchups. On the surface, you are getting a 2024 race winner on a higher-tier team against a lower-level driver and team. As Lee Corso would say, “Not so fast, my friends!”
Todd Gilliland has been on a tear lately. The driver of the Front Row Motorsports #38 Ford just signed a multi-year contract extension and is on a six-race top-17 finish streak, a solid run for a team of this caliber. In six of the last eight races on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule, Gilliland has gotten the best of Suarez at the end of the day. Ford and Gilliland seem to have found something, while Suarez seems to be a little off. I’ll ride the hot hand.
Brad Keselowski Top 5 (+225)
Bad Brad Keselowski is really good at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Over the last five races there, it’s Keselowski who has the best average finish (5.2). Per Ifantasyracing.com Brad also leads the series in driver rating and average running position. In his last 19 races at New Hampshire, Keselowski has 10 top-five finishes.
On top of being really good at this track, Keselowski is having a strong season with seven top-five finishes and has been especially good on short tracks. 10th at Iowa last week, eighth at Richmond, third at Bristol, and fourth at Phoenix the most comparable track the series has been to. Ford is clicking, RFK is clicking, and Brad is clicking right now. I’m also betting Keselowski’s outright at 18/1.
Total Number of Toyota’s in the Top 10 Over 3.5 (-105)
This week should be all about Toyota and Ford. Chevy’s looked strong last week at Iowa, and that was great, but on short flat style tracks, they’ve struggled lately. At Phoenix earlier this season, only one Chevy finished the race in the top 12. That opens up more spots for Ford and Toyota. In that race, four Toyotas found their way into the top 10, with a fifth finishing in 11th.
All four Gibbs Toyotas should be really strong this weekend with a chance to win. Tyler Reddick is always strong, and Bubba Wallace is one of only four drivers who are two for two finishing in the top 10 in the Next Gen era at New Hampshire.
Martin Truex Jr to Win (+500)
Truex announced his retirement effective at the end of this season last weekend. Now he comes to one of his home tracks and a track he’s really good at. Last season, Truex led 254 of the 301 laps on his way to the win. In 2022 he led another 172 laps and has finished top six here in seven of the last eight races, the only one he didn’t spin out because of rain and wrecked his car from second place. Truex has been good this season on tracks. He’s traditionally strong, and this is one of, if not his best, track.
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