March Madness continues into Wednesday with another pair of games that we will break down in our NCAA Tournament First Four preview and best bets.
The first matchup will be between Southwestern Conference Tournament winner (16) Grambling State and the Big Sky’s automatic bid (16) Montana State.
In the second game, (10) Colorado and (10) Boise State will battle for a chance to secure the final place in the South Region. The winner will face (7) Florida on Friday.
Night two has a tournament debutant and NBA lottery players. So, let’s dive into the action with our NCAA Tournament First Four preview and best bets.
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NCAA Tournament First Four Preview: March Madness Upsets, Picks, and Bets for March 20, 2024
Grambling (20-14) vs. Montana State (17-17)
(Montana State -4/Total – 135) – 6:40 p.m. ET on truTV
If you read yesterday’s preview, you know that I started with a first-half under, and I’m going back to that same bet here to tip off Wednesday’s action.
So, my best bet is for the first-half total to fall under 63.5 at DraftKings. I like any number above 60 in this spot.
These two squads have been known to have slow starts to games this season, especially on the offensive end of the floor. Montana State ranks 192nd in the country in first-half points per game.
Meanwhile, Grambling is even worse, ranking 351st out of 362 teams. This is also the same team that is outside the top 300 in tempo by Kenpom.
However, the Tigers have been stout defensively in the opening period. GSU is in the top 70 for points allowed per game in the first half of contests.
The combination of the slow pace of play and a strong defense has been the reason why this same bet would have cashed in 10 of the Tigers’ last 16 games.
I also like how the Bobcats match up with GSU defensively. Grambling is not a good shooting team and does most of its damage from inside the arc.
According to Haslometrics, the Tigers rank 34th in the nation in mid-range attempt rate. This is not good going up against a Montana State defense that ranks in the top 100 in opponent mid-range shooting percentage.
The Bobcats could have success from the three-point line, but I think it will take some time to adjust to the environment and arena in Dayton.
Colorado (24-10) vs. Boise State (22-10)
(Colorado -2.5/O/U 140.5) – 9:10 p.m. ET on truTV
In my previous NCAA Tournament First Four preview, I backed a Mountain West Conference team. However, I have to oppose the league here by taking a more talented and athletic Colorado squad.
With that said, my second First Four best bet is to play the Buffaloes on the moneyline of -148 at DraftKings. I would not exceed -150 odds or -3 on the spread.
Colorado has a clear advantage on both sides of the floor that I can’t ignore. On offense, the Buffaloes love to attack the basket, ranking second in the country in near-proximity attempt rate.
This is not good for a Boise defense that is outside the top 220 in the statistic. The Broncos are also 283rd in the percentage of opponents’ points that come from two-pointers and 60th out of 68 tournament teams since February in shooting percentage allowed from shots inside the arc.
On the flip side, the Buffaloes also match up well on defense against the Broncos. Boise takes and makes a lot of three-pointers.
Since February, Colorado has ranked in the top 10 among NCAA Tournament teams in opponents’ three-point percentage. The Buffaloes are also 61st in the country for the full season.
You also have to question Leon Rice as a tournament coach. He has failed to win a game at the Big Dance in four trips, and he is 4-8 in the postseason if you include the NIT and CBI.
This sets up as a spot where Colorado’s projected NBA lottery picks can get to the rim whenever they want, and I don’t think Boise can stop them.
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