Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for January 28.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – January 28
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Detroit Pistons
Tipoff – 2:00 pm EST
Little Caesars Arena – Detroit, Michigan
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The Thunder may have a slight disadvantage in the number of first buckets they’ve gotten, but there’s still reason to lean to the visitors here. The difference on the statistics is about 6.6% when it comes to first field goal success. However, the Thunder have a much bigger advantage when it comes to the tip. They’re winning the tip just shy of 10% more often than the Pistons. With the tip winner getting 65% of all the first buckets, I think we can go with a member of the Thunder here.
It may be a bit of a chalky play out of the gate for Sunday, but I like Chet Holmgren here. He took three of the first four shots for the Thunder last game, with only Luguentz Dort getting a look otherwise. He also is shooting at a high percentage, which gives me faith in his ability to knock something down.
First FG Bet for January 28: Chet Holmgren (+425)
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Indiana Pacers
Tipoff – 3:30 pm EST
Gainbridge Fieldhouse – Indianapolis, Indiana
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The Grizzlies are another team that hold a big advantage on the tip for Sunday. Jaren Jackson Jr. is one of the very best in the league on the tip and he has Memphis at a 71.1% win percentage (good for 2nd in the NBA). The Pacers, meanwhile, are 19th in the league and are winning under half of their jumps (44.7%).
The advantage is also there on the first bucket, albeit less pronounced. The Grizzlies are 11th in the NBA with a 53.3% success rate. On the other hand, the Pacers are 20th in the Association at 46.8%. Between these two leads, you have to go with someone on the Grizzlies here.
Jaren Jackson Jr. has been their bell cow all year on the first bucket. However, we cashed a sweet +850 on Vince WIlliams on Friday as the contrarian play. Looking for another of those, how about John Konchar? With the Grizzlies back court banged up, he’s stepped into a starting role and is taking plenty of shots. The big number next to his name will be even more enticement.
First FG Bet for January 28: John Konchar (+1300)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for January 28, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
