Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for January 26.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – January 26
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Toronto Raptors
Tipoff – 7:30 pm EST
Scotiabank Arena – Toronto, Ontario
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
Neither of these teams have looked all that good on the tip for the year. The Raptors are at just 50% and that number is going down with the injury to Jakob Poeltl. Scottie Barnes has taken over tip duties and is getting just 25% of all tips. The Clippers are barely over that number themselves. Their season average is 35.7% (good for 26th in the league). That doesn’t seem to be improving either with Mason Plumlee on the tip – he’s just 1-for-3 so far.
With all that uncertainty on the jump, the real important data comes from the first buckets. The Raptors just happen to be leading the league in that category. They have scored first in 68.2% of games. The Clippers on the other hand are 29th in the league at 38.1%. That 30.1% difference is plenty to lean to the Raptors.
If you look at the recent first bucket successes for the Raptors, you’d see Gary Trent Jr. has gotten the last two. However, he’s not getting a ton of looks. In fact, he shot the ball just six times last game. Scottie Barnes may be the chalk play, but he scored first for them last time out and they love him on the inside early.
First FG Bet for January 26: Scottie Barnes (+600)
Orlando Magic vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Tipoff – 8:00 pm EST
FedExForum – Memphis, Tennessee
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
On the season, the team that wins the tip is scoring first at a 64.2% clip. When you pair that with the Grizzlies, who happen to be one of two teams with a 70% tip win percentage, they should be the clear favorite to score first here. That’s even before we dig into the Magic’s terrible stats. They have won less than 30% of all tips (29th in the league) and they have scored first in 40.9% of games (26th in the league).
Much like the Raptors, the Grizzlies have a clear-cut chalk pick that could very well score first. Jaren Jackson Jr. has an absurd amount of first buckets. If we’re looking for a contrarian play here, I like Vince Williams. He’s taken one of the first three shots in each of the last two games. He also had a first bucket two weeks ago.
First FG Bet for January 26: Vince Williams (+850)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for January 26, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
