Clubs battle for the remaining spots in the knockout rounds this week in the final round of the group stage for Champions League Matchday 6.
Groups A, B, C, and D are in action on Tuesday, where Bayern Munich and Arsenal have already won their groups. Manchester United needs results to go its way to secure a spot in the Round of 16.
Meanwhile, the Group of Death still has one spot remaining to join Dortmund in the next round. The winner of Newcastle and AC Milan needs a Paris Saint-Germain loss to advance from the group stage.
Champions League Matchday 6 is always entertaining, and I have two best bets to cash in on the excitement.
Champions League Matchday 6 – Best Bets
Manchester United vs Bayern Munich – Bayern Team Total Over 1.5 (-111) FanDuel
This was a play that cashed in our UCL Matchday 5 preview, and I’m going back to it again here. I will continue to fade this United defense until something changes.
In this competition, the Red Devils have allowed an average of 2.08 expected goals and three big chances per 90 minutes, according to fbref.com. United’s opponents have scored multiple goals in four of five Champions League matches.
This is not good when you come up against a Bayern attack that has gone over this same total in four group-stage games. This includes putting four past the Red Devils in the opener.
I know the German side doesn’t have anything to play for here. However, I do feel Thomas Tuchel will want a response after this weekend’s thrashing.
Newcastle vs. AC Milan – AC Milan +0.5 (-105) BetRivers
Whenever a club adds the midweek games for European competition for the first time, you can see that team get tired or injuries begin to pile up. I believe this is what we are seeing with Newcastle.
Beyond the lengthy absentee list, it’s not like the Magpies were putting in great performances in the Champions League. In the tournament, Eddie Howe’s side owns a -6.2 xGDiff.
The Italian club sports a +1.7 xGDiff and dominated the first meeting. Milan won the expected goals battle by 1.6. and held Newcastle to no big chances and just six shots.
As long as Rafael Leão is fit to make the starting lineup, I believe the visitors have great betting value to get a result at St. James’ Park.
