Premier League Matchday 16 – Preview and Best Bets

Premier League Matchday 16 – Preview and Best Bets

After a busy midweek schedule, the festive soccer period continues this weekend in England with a full slate of matches for Premier League Matchday 16.

Saturday has six games, which is headlined by Arsenal’s trip to Aston Villa. Liverpool and Manchester United are both in action as well.

Meanwhile, Sunday’s best fixture is in North London, where Tottenham Hotspur hosts Newcastle. Manchester City and Chelsea are both away from home on the same day.

This EPL weekend has plenty of great betting opportunities, and we break down Premier League Matchday 16 with our full preview and best bets.

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Premier League Matchday 16 – Preview and Best Bets

Crystal Palace vs. Liverpool – Palace has been a bogey team for Liverpool in recent seasons. I still need a better number to fade the Reds here.

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs. Nottingham Forest – This could be the last match for Forest manager Steve Cooper if he doesn’t get a result. I think the odds were spot on here.

 

Brighton vs. Burnley – This feels like one of those fixtures where Brighton may score four or five. However, we haven’t seen the best of the Seagulls lately.

Sheffield United vs. Brentford – The Blades made a switch at manager recently, and I will avoid their games until I see if anything changes.

Manchester United vs. Bournemouth – The Cherries have started to hit form. They almost made the card here, getting +1 on the Asian Handicap.

Aston Villa vs. Arsenal – Aston Villa +0.25 (-104) BetRivers

Unai Emery’s side has made Villa Park a fortress this season for opposing teams. On the year, only Liverpool has a better average home xGDiff than the Villans’ +1.486 per 90 minutes according to fbref.com.

The attack has been the huge force under Emery, averaging 2.429 expected goals per game. Villa has also scored multiple goals in all but one match.

Yes, Arsenal has started to find its form with the full selection of forwards to choose from. However, I still don’t think oddsmakers are fully pricing in how well Villa is at home.

I make this match closer to a coin flip. If you want to pay a larger price for the full +0.5 handicap, I don’t hate it, but I still think this +0.25 line holds great value at almost even money.

Luton Town vs. Manchester City – Luton has shown it is tough to beat at home. The underlying metrics point to a bit of luck with that, so I’ll pass here.

 Fulham vs. West Ham – Are you buying the Fulham attack resurgence? The Cottagers are great at home, but I think the odds are spot on.

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Everton vs. Chelsea – Everton Draw No Bet (+123) BetRivers

Chelsea’s away struggles are the primary reason for this play, especially with how well Everton is at home. Mauricio Pochettino’s side has given up a combined 7.4 xG on the last three road trips to Tottenham, Newcastle, and Manchester United.

This is the same team that gave up three goals at West Ham in a loss earlier in the campaign and drew at Bournemouth before the Cherries recent turn in form.

Meanwhile, the Toffees’ results at Goodison Park may not jump off the page, but you have to look at the advanced metrics. At home, Everton owns a +6.55 xGDiff, averaging over two expected goals per match.

I do expect a response from Pochettino’s team after getting dominated at Old Trafford, but I still feel this is great value for Everton.

Spurs vs. Newcastle – There are too many absentees on both sides to call this one. Spurs shouldn’t be a favorite, but Newcastle has been poor on the road.

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