The first cut race of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs takes place Saturday night in the Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway. The stars of NASCAR will take on the .533-mile-high banked concrete bullring in Bristol, Tennessee.
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NASCAR Cup Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway Odds and Best Bets
The playoff field will be trimmed from 16 drivers down to 12, with the lowest four drivers’ championship hopes vacated. Kyle Larson and Tyler Reddick have no worries, as they’ve already punched their ticket to the Round of 12. A few drivers hold their own fate in their hands no matter what their opponents do.
Denny Hamlin needs just 14 points (23rd or better with no stage points). William Byron needs 22 points (15th or better with no stage points). Brad Keselowski needs 30 points (7th with no stage points).
Last year, it was Chris Buescher bursting onto the scene and capturing the first win as a rebranded organization for Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing. Bristol has been on the NASCAR schedule since 1961 and has delivered great racing. Add the pressure of the playoffs and making it a cut race, this race is sure to deliver excitement under the lights on a short-track Saturday night.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Kyle Larson +550
William Byron +750
Denny Hamlin +750
Christopher Bell +800
Brad Keselowski +850
Chase Elliott +1000
Kyle Busch +1200
Kevin Harvick +1200
Chris Buescher +1200
Ryan Blaney +1400
Ross Chastain +1400
Martin Truex Jr +1400
Joey Logano +1400
Tyler Reddick +1600
Bubba Wallace +2800
Ty Gibbs +4000
Alex Bowman +5500
Erik Jones +6000
Daniel Suarez +9000
Aric Almirola +9000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +10000
Michael McDowell +10000
Chase Briscoe +10000
Ryan Preece +15000
AJ Allmendinger +15000
Justin Haley +15000
Carson Hocevar +25000
Austin Dillion +25000
Harrison Burton +40000
Austin Cindric +40000
Corey Lajoie +50000
Ty Dillion +100000
Todd Gilliland +100000
JJ Yeley +100000
Cole Custer +100000
BJ McLeod +100000
Truck race winner 8/1 ✅
Cup pole winner 10/1 ✅
Xfinity winner 3/1 ✅
Cup Race winner 9/1 ✅ @Husker_Zeeb swept the entire weekend! LETS GOOOOO https://t.co/TuL2HLpauq— NASCAR Gambling Podcast (@NascarGambling) September 10, 2023
Best Bets
Erik Jones Top 10 Finish (+240 Bet365)
At Bristol (Bristol stats will refer to the concrete surface only unless dirt is noted in the statistic), since 2020, Erik Jones has an average finish of 9.3. Jones finished eighth in 2021, and Jones is coming off an impressively strong finish at Kansas Speedway last week and seven top 11 finishes in the last 12 NASCAR Cup Series races. In his career at Bristol Motor Speedway, Jones has four career top-five finishes, including a second-place finish in his rookie season with Furniture Row Racing.
Chase Briscoe Top 10 Finish (+350 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kicking off the best bets this week with two non-playoff drivers to score top-10 finishes. Both Darlington and Kansas were not kind to playoff drivers, and Bristol Motor Speedway may be even tougher. Last year, Brad Keselowski and Chris Buescher had great runs late, but neither were in the playoffs. Chase Briscoe has had a season to forget for the most part, but short tracks have been the bright spot for both Chase Briscoe and the Stewart-Haas Racing team in general.
In his two starts at Bristol Motor Speedway, Briscoe has finishes of 13th and 14th. Last year, Briscoe scored stage finishes of fourth and third, respectively, proving he had speed throughout the race. Briscoe finished 11th at Richmond, 10th at New Hampshire, fifth at Martinsville, fourth in the All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro, and fifth in the spring race here at Bristol on the dirt surface.
The moral of the story is that Briscoe and his team are great on short tracks, and this is the chance to catch the books not adjusting their prices enough to match his numbers. At 100/1 to win the race, Briscoe is worth a small bet. Buescher was 100/1 for last year’s race here at Bristol.
Kevin Harvick Over Martin Truex Jr (-115 Bet365)
Martin Truex Jr. won the regular season championship yet enters Bristol seven points below the cut line and in jeopardy of being the first regular-season champion eliminated in the Round of 16. Unfortunately for Truex Jr., Bristol has not been kind to him. Since the start of 2020, Bristol has been the 26th-best track (out of 28) for Truex. His average finish in those four races is 21.8. In 33 career starts at Bristol, Truex only has two career top-five finishes, coming back to back in 2011 and 2012.
For Kevin Harvick, it’s been much of the opposite. In the last four races, Harvick has finished in the top 10 in all of them, winning in 2020 and almost winning in 2021. Harvick settled for second place after being held up late in the race by an angry Chase Elliott. In his last 14 races at Bristol, Harvick has just one finish outside of 13th place. These driver’s track history couldn’t be any different, and you have to take the consistent finisher.
Denny Hamlin to Win (+750 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Denny Hamlin has had the best car the last two weeks and, in neither race, has been able to capture the win. Dropping down the odds board a little this week. Maybe it’s the week Hamlin gets back on track. Last week at Kansas, a late caution flag and overtime restart saw Denny lose what had been an easy win before the caution as he finished second to the #45 car he owns.
The week before at Darlington, a loose wheel on a late pit stop took away his chances. Hamlin is no stranger to Victory Lane at Bristol, visiting there twice before. Seven times, Hamlin has finished inside the top three at Bristol.
