Welcome back to the weekly Wong Teaser Preview article! In this article, we will take a look at the historical trends and current lines that meet the criteria of the famous blackjack bettor Stanford Wong for NFL Week 18 Wong Teasers. If you are unfamiliar with Wong Teasers, be sure to check out our Wong Teaser Basics article.
Below we will see that the records indicate not a great week. But I think that the lines were fluctuating so much that it is a little bit misleading. The Friday spreads went 5-0. The Closing lines are 2-1, so I think most people got in early enough to have a great week of teasing!
Not a lot of lines that meet the criteria this week, but I anticipate we will see a lot of line movement this week with teams sitting players and stuff like that so keep an eye out as we get closer to Saturday and Sunday.
Right now, I really like the Browns. Again, another AFC North matchup. These are always close games, especially against the Steelers. Keep an eye out for lines you like to pair with that. The Broncos are intriguing as well.
But keep an eye out on my Twitter for my Saturday/Sunday plays.
Good luck this week!
Let’s Talk About Teasers – NFL Week 18 Wong Teasers
6 Point Teasers
Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong’s strategy:
Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3
Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.
Sweetheart Teasers
10-point teasers are often called “sweetheart” teasers.
For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;
Tease the favorite at -10, -10½
Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3
Week 18 Lines
All lines are courtesy of WynnBet. Please note that the results posted next week may differ from what is below due to line movement.
This will show the total and the Record of that team as a 6pt teaser in the current situation this week. So if they’re an underdog, their record below will be their record as an underdog. The total is only on this chart, so you can reference it.
| Wednesday Spread | Total | Record since 2018 | 10 Point Record |
| Browns +3 | 40 | 10-3 | |
| Texans +2.5 | 38 | 7-1 | 3-1 |
| Broncos +3 | 40 | 11-3 | |
| Chiefs -9 | 52 | 8-0 | |
| Vikings -7.5 | 43 | 3-0 |
So how do I bet these?
Typically, I will form 2-3 teasers taking in information from handicappers at the Sports Gambling Podcast Network as well as my own handicaps on teams that meet the criteria. As well as any additional trends.
2022 Results
| Teaser | Line | Record | Win % |
| 6 pt | +1 ½ thru +3 | 60-20 | 75% |
| 6 pt | -7 ½ thru -9 | 14-5 | 73.68% |
| 10 pt | +1 ½ thru +2 ½ | 48-8 | 85.96% |
| 10 pt | -10 thru -10.5 | 9-1 | 90% |
| Week | Record | Win % |
| 1 | 1-4 | 20% |
| 2 | 2-2 | 50% |
| 3 | 5-1 | 83.33% |
| 4 | 3-3 | 50% |
| 5 | 2-1 | 66.67% |
| 6 | 7-1 | 87.5% |
| 7 | 2-2 | 50% |
| 8 | 5-1 | 83.33% |
| 9 | 5-1 | 83.33% |
| 10 | 5-0 | 100% |
| 11 | 6-1 | 85.71% |
| 12 | 6-0 | 100% |
| 13 | 5-1 | 83.33% |
| 14 | 3-2 | 60% |
| 15` | 7-3 | 70% |
| 16 | 8-0 | 100% |
| 17 | 2-1 | 66.67% |
If you are interested in doing a little deeper dive into these bets, continue below…
Historical Wong Teaser Stats
| Teaser | Year | Spread | Record | Win % |
| 6 pt | 2018 | +1½ thru +3 | 59-18 | 76.62% |
| 6 pt | 2019 | +1½ thru +3 | 52-18 | 74.29% |
| 6 pt | 2020 | +1½ thru +3 | 60-16 | 78.95% |
| 6 pt | 2021 | +1½ thru +3 | 67-17 | 79.76% |
| 6 pt | 2018 | -7½ thru -9 | 18-3 | 85.71% |
| 6 pt | 2019 | -7½ thru -9 | 13-4 | 76.47% |
| 6 pt | 2020 | -7½ thru -9 | 25-3 | 89.29% |
| 6 pt | 2021 | -7½ thru -9 | 24-5 | 82.76% |
| 10 pt | 2018 | +1½ thru +2½ | 35-3 | 92.1% |
| 10 pt | 2019 | +1½ thru +2½ | 35-5 | 87.5% |
| 10 pt | 2020 | +1½ thru +2½ | 34-6 | 85% |
| 10 pt | 2021 | +1½ thru +2½ | 36-3 | 92.3% |
| 10 pt | 2018 | -10 thru -10½ | 10-1 | 90.91% |
| 10 pt | 2019 | -10 thru -10½ | 10-3 | 76.92% |
| 10 pt | 2020 | -10 thru -10½ | 8-0 | 100% |
| 10 pt | 2021 | -10 thru -10½ | 13-0 | 100% |
Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have a breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. These are specifically for my book, so yours may differ.
Weekly Wong Teaser Records 2018-2021
| Week | Record | Win % |
| 1 | 22-4 | 84.62% |
| 2 | 17-3 | 85% |
| 3 | 26-2 | 92.86% |
| 4 | 16-6 | 72.73% |
| 5 | 19-4 | 82.61% |
| 6 | 17-8 | 73.08% |
| 7 | 15-6 | 68% |
| 8 | 12-1 | 92.3% |
| 9 | 17-3 | 85% |
| 10 | 16-4 | 80% |
| 11 | 14-8 | 63.64% |
| 12 | 22-3 | 88% |
| 13 | 17-4 | 80.95% |
| 14 | 22-9 | 70.97% |
| 15 | 18-4 | 81.82% |
| 16 | 23-4 | 85.19% |
| 17 | 9-7 | 56.25% |
| 18 | 2-0 | 100% |
Regarding Game Totals < 49
Do totals matter? Another word of advice that some Wong bettors give is only to play games with low totals. The idea certainly makes sense: points are harder to come by in a low-scoring game, so the 6-point tease is worth more. But what does the data say about this in the last three years?
From 2018-2021, here are the statistics, including playoffs:
| Bet | Record | Win % |
| Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 | 234-65 | 78.26% |
| Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) | 177-50 | 77.97% |
| Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) | 36-13 | 73.47% |
| Bet | Record | Win % |
| Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 | 76-15 | 83.52% |
| Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) | 60-11 | 84.5% |
| Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) | 12-1 | 92.3% |
If you wanted to look at only home favorites (Wong’s original criteria is home favorites):
| Bet | Record | Win % |
| Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 | 53-12 | 81.25% |
| Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) | 43-9 | 82.7% |
| Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) | 9-1 | 90% |
Here are the results for 2022:
| Bet | Record | Win % |
| Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 | 60-20 | 72% |
| Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) | 55-16 | 77.61% |
| Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) | 28-5 | 84.85% |
| Bet | Record | Win % |
| Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 | 14-5 | 73.68% |
| Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) | 13-5 | 72.22% |
| Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) | 5-3 | 62.5% |
