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Let’s Talk About Teasers – Week 17 NFL Wong Teasers

Let’s Talk About Teasers – Week 17 NFL Wong Teasers

Welcome back to the weekly Wong Teaser Preview article! In this article, we will take a look at the historical trends and current lines that meet the criteria of the famous blackjack bettor Stanford Wong. If you are unfamiliar with Wong Teasers, be sure to check out our Wong Teaser Basics article.

Another 100% week! I had a great week in the NFL this week, cashing my Wong Teaser and going 5-0 ATS.

All of the teams that meet the Wong criteria have great records in 6-point and 10-point teasers. However, we don’t have many lines this week. But we do have a lot of low totals again, which is always a good thing.

Right now, I really like the Panthers, Steelers, and Dolphins. All of them are divisional rivalry games which are typically always close games.

I wouldn’t really say I am avoiding the Seahawks against this Jets team, but there is some uncertainty because of the QB situation there.

But keep an eye out on my Twitter for my Saturday/Sunday plays.

Good luck this week!

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Let’s Talk About Teasers – NFL Week 17 Wong Teasers

6 Point Teasers

Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong’s strategy:

– Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3

– Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.

Sweetheart Teasers

10-point teasers are often called “sweetheart” teasers.

– For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;

– Tease the favorite at -10, -10½

– Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3;

Week 17 Lines

All lines are courtesy of WynnBet. Please note that the results posted next week may differ from what is below due to line movement.

This will show the total and the Record of that team as a 6pt teaser in the current situation this week. So if they’re an underdog, their record below will be their record as an underdog. The total is only on this chart, so you can reference it.

Friday Spread Total Record since 2018 10 Point Record
Panthers +3 40 14-1
Dolphins +2.5 42 6-2 3-0
Seahawks +2 42.5 11-2 5-0
Steelers +3 36 9-2

So how do I bet these?

Typically, I will form 2-3 teasers taking in information from handicappers at the Sports Gambling Podcast Network as well as my own handicaps on teams that meet the criteria. As well as any additional trends.

2022 Results

Teaser Line Record Win %
6 pt +1 ½ thru +3 58-19 75.32%
6 pt -7 ½ thru -9 14-5 73.68%
10 pt +1 ½ thru +2 ½ 49-8 85.96%
10 pt -10 thru -10.5 8-1 88.89%

 

Week Record Win %
1 1-4 20%
2 2-2 50%
3 5-1 83.33%
4 3-3 50%
5 2-1 66.67%
6 7-1 87.5%
7 2-2 50%
8 5-1 83.33%
9 5-1 83.33%
10 5-0 100%
11 6-1 85.71%
12 6-0 100%
13 5-1 83.33%
14 3-2 60%
15` 7-3 70%
16 8-0 100%

 

If you are interested in doing a little deeper dive into these bets, continue below…

Historical Wong Teaser Stats

Teaser Year Spread Record Win %
6 pt 2018 +1½ thru +3 59-18 76.62%
6 pt 2019 +1½ thru +3 52-18 74.29%
6 pt 2020 +1½ thru +3 60-16 78.95%
6 pt 2021 +1½ thru +3 67-17 79.76%
6 pt 2018 -7½ thru -9 18-3 85.71%
6 pt 2019 -7½ thru -9 13-4 76.47%
6 pt 2020 -7½ thru -9 25-3 89.29%
6 pt 2021 -7½ thru -9 24-5 82.76%
10 pt 2018 +1½ thru +2½ 35-3 92.1%
10 pt 2019 +1½ thru +2½ 35-5 87.5%
10 pt 2020 +1½ thru +2½ 34-6 85%
10 pt 2021 +1½ thru +2½ 36-3 92.3%
10 pt 2018 -10 thru -10½ 10-1 90.91%
10 pt 2019 -10 thru -10½ 10-3 76.92%
10 pt 2020 -10 thru -10½ 8-0 100%
10 pt 2021 -10 thru -10½ 13-0 100%

 

Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have a breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. These are specifically for my book so yours may differ.

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Weekly Wong Teaser Records 2018-2021

Week Record Win %
1 22-4 84.62%
2 17-3 85%
3 26-2 92.86%
4 16-6 72.73%
5 19-4 82.61%
6 17-8 73.08%
7 15-6 68%
8 12-1 92.3%
9 17-3 85%
10 16-4 80%
11 14-8 63.64%
12 22-3 88%
13 17-4 80.95%
14 22-9 70.97%
15 18-4 81.82%
16 23-4 85.19%
17 9-7 56.25%
18 2-0 100%

 


Regarding Game Totals < 49

Do totals matter? Another word of advice that some Wong bettors give is to only play games with low totals. The idea certainly makes sense: points are harder to come by in a low-scoring game, so the 6-point tease is worth more. But what does the data say about this in the last three years?

From 2018-2021, here are the statistics, including playoffs:

Bet Record Win %
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 234-65 78.26%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 177-50 77.97%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 36-13 73.47%

 

Bet Record Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 76-15 83.52%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 60-11 84.5%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 12-1 92.3%

 

If you wanted to look at only home favorites (Wong’s original criteria is home favorites):

Bet Record Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 53-12 81.25%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 43-9 82.7%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 9-1 90%

 

Here are the results for 2022:

Bet Record Win %
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 58-19 72.14%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 53-15 77.61%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 27-5 84.38%

 

Bet Record Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 14-5 73.68%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 13-5 72.22%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 5-3 62.5%

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