Despite taking some hits to the fight card, UFC 282 is still filled with loads of absolute bangers. However, even of the best of cards, we sometimes have trouble finding value on the moneylines. If you find yourself in that position for this Saturday’s card, look no further. We have the props and totals to help you make the best of this event.
UFC 282 – Props and Totals
Jay Perrin vs Raul Rosas Jr – Fight Goes to Decision (-105)
The 18-year-old Raul Rosas Jr. enters UFC 282 with plenty of hype – which is probably why we’ve seen his moneyline explode into the -200s. However, during his lone fight against tough competition (on Contender Series), he failed to finish Mando Gutierrez. Jay Perrin is even harder to finish, having been only finished once in his career. In addition, most of Perrin’s finishes are all by submission. So unless you think that Perrin is going to shock the world and snag a submission, the fight going to decision here is a steal.
Dricus Du Plessis – Wins by Submission (+500)
In his last fight, Dricus Du Plessis went to a decision with Brad Tavares. That was the only time Du Plessis has seen the scorecards in his 19-fight career. Of the 17 wins he has on his record, the majority of them (nine) are via submission. He’s been a little more active with the hands lately, but there’s no reason to think that he won’t try to pursue the ground game with Darren Till. Till has lost four of his last five fights, with half of them coming via submission. Maybe 5-to-1 seems like a long shot, but there is definitely value in this UFC 282 line.
Jan Blachowicz – Wins by (T)KO (+550)
Yes, we’re hitting you with back-to-back props over +500. The “Legendary Polish Power” isn’t a myth though. Jan Blachowicz has three (T)KO finishes in his last four victories. There’s also good reason to believe a large majority of this fight takes place on the feet. Magomed Ankalaev is hitting on just 33% of his takedowns and Blachowicz managed to stuff 67% of Glover Teixeira’s attempts.
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Chris Daukaus vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik – Over 1.5 Rounds (+115)
UFC 282 pits a pair of heavyweights coming off of knockout losses up against one another. While they both have power and both have early finishes on their records, there’s reason to believe they will both be a little safer here. Chris Daukaus being that he doesn’t want to drop his third straight and respects Rozenstruik’s power. Rozenstruik himself has been a little tentative at times (particularly in the Allistair Overeem fight). While there’s definitely a chance we see a quick KO, I’m trusting the feeling out process lasting too long and getting plus-money off of it.
Steven Koslow – Wins by Submission (+700)
Why not end the UFC 282 props with one more banger? Steven Koslow got the late replacement call to fight Cameron Saaiman. Saaiman had a bit of hype coming off the Contender Series, having beaten Josh Wang-Kim. However, in that fight, he was easily taken down by Wang-Kim, who is not traditionally known as a grappler. Koslow, on the other hand, has six professional fights and has won each of them with a submission. I’m not sure what Saaiman’s submission defense looks like, but I’m willing to bet it hits the ground and +700 is enough to want to find out.
If you’d like even more information on props and totals that can cash big at UFC 282, be sure to check out the MMA Gambling Podcast. The guys are dropping episodes four times a week to make you the smartest guy at the bar.