Welcome back to the weekly Wong Teaser Preview article! In this article, we will take a look at the historical trends and current lines that meet the criteria of the famous blackjack bettor Stanford Wong. If you are unfamiliar with Wong Teasers be sure to check out our Wong Teaser Basics article.
Finally a very solid week for Teasers! I personally hit a 4 teamer which saved my Sunday. Our only loss this week was the Packers and the Bucs depending on when you bet on them. The only one that counts is the closing-line Packers. I think this season there are a lot of teams that we don’t really know what they are at this point. Really the Packers and Bucs are the two that everyone is shocked by and the Packers just keep ending up in our criteria. I will personally be avoiding them probably for the rest of the season.
This week I am eyeing the Saints, Colts, and Giants. Although…disclaimer I think the Giants are a super Vegas trap line. Doesn’t really make sense to me. But, that being said, I don’t see the Jaguars blowing anyone out of the water. The Colts are 3-1 against the Titans in Tennessee and 1-3 in Indy. Saints on Thursday is a play on the Thursday close game trend. I don’t see there being a ton of points in this game and the Saints defense keeps it close.
MORE SGPN FANTASY FOOTBALL CONTENT
Fantasy Football Youtube Channel
Let’s Talk About Teasers – Week 7 Wong Teasers
6 Point Teasers
Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong’s strategy:
Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3
Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.
10-point teasers are often called “sweetheart” teasers.
For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;
Tease the favorite at -10, -10½
Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3
Week 6 Lines
All lines are courtesy of WynnBet. Please note that the results posted next week may differ from what is below due to line movement.
This will show the total and the Record of that team as a 6pt teaser in the current situation this week. So if they’re an underdog, their record below will be their record as an underdog. The total is only on this chart so you can reference it.
|Wednesday Spread||Total||Record since 2018||10 Point Record|
So how do I bet these?
Typically, I will form 2-3 teasers taking in information from handicappers at the Sports Gambling Podcast Network as well as my own handicaps on teams that meet the criteria. As well as any additional trends.
|6 pt||+1 ½ thru +3||18-10||64.29%|
|6 pt||-7 ½ thru -9||2-3||40%|
|10 pt||+1 ½ thru +2 ½||14-4||77.78%|
|10 pt||-10 thru -10.5||5-0||100%|
If you are interested in doing a little deeper dive into these bets to assist with these Week 7 Wong Teasers continue below…
Historical Wong Teaser Stats
|6 pt||2018||+1½ thru +3||59-18||76.62%|
|6 pt||2019||+1½ thru +3||52-18||74.29%|
|6 pt||2020||+1½ thru +3||60-16||78.95%|
|6 pt||2021||+1½ thru +3||67-17||79.76%|
|6 pt||2018||-7½ thru -9||18-3||85.71%|
|6 pt||2019||-7½ thru -9||13-4||76.47%|
|6 pt||2020||-7½ thru -9||25-3||89.29%|
|6 pt||2021||-7½ thru -9||24-5||82.76%|
|10 pt||2018||+1½ thru +2½||35-3||92.1%|
|10 pt||2019||+1½ thru +2½||35-5||87.5%|
|10 pt||2020||+1½ thru +2½||34-6||85%|
|10 pt||2021||+1½ thru +2½||36-3||92.3%|
|10 pt||2018||-10 thru -10½||10-1||90.91%|
|10 pt||2019||-10 thru -10½||10-3||76.92%|
|10 pt||2020||-10 thru -10½||8-0||100%|
|10 pt||2021||-10 thru -10½||13-0||100%|
Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have a breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. These are specifically for my book so yours may differ.
Weekly Wong Teaser Records 2018-2021
Regarding Game Totals < 49
Do totals matter? Another word of advice that some Wong bettors give is to only play games with low totals. The idea certainly makes sense: points are harder to come by in a low-scoring game, so the 6-point tease is worth more. But what does the data say about this in the last three years?
From 2018-2021, here are the statistics including playoffs:
|Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3||234-65||78.26%|
|Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3)||177-50||77.97%|
|Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3)||36-13||73.47%|
|Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9||76-15||83.52%|
|Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9)||60-11||84.5%|
|Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9)||12-1||92.3%|
If you wanted to look at only home favorites (Wong’s original criteria is home favorites):
|Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9||53-12||81.25%|
|Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9)||43-9||82.7%|
|Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9)||9-1||90%|
Here are the results for 2022:
|Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3||18-10||64.29%|
|Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3)||16-7||69.57%|
|Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3)||6-2||75%|
|Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9||2-3||40%|
|Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9)||2-3||40%|
|Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9)||1-1||50%|