Connect with us

NFL

Let’s Talk About Teasers – NFL Week 2 Wong Teasers

CINCINNATI, OH – SEPTEMBER 11: Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Chase Claypool (11) carries the ball during the game against the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cincinnati Bengals on September 11, 2022, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, OH. (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire

Welcome to the NFL Week 2 Wong Teasers preview article! In this article, we will take a look at the historical trends and current lines that meet the criteria of the famous blackjack bettor Stanford Wong. If you are unfamiliar with Wong Teasers be sure to check out our Wong Teaser Basics article.

betmgm risk free bet

Well, this was not the start I had envisioned for us. Last year we had three losses in 10-point teasers ALL SEASON and we just had three in Week 1 to start this season.

Incredible how many teams did awful this week. We will probably get comments stating how there’s a lot more variability since it’s week one, but over the last four years, Week 1 teasers have gone 22-4 so that doesn’t really add up. Just bad luck this week.

Not a lot to say about this week other than what is pretty obvious. I really hate betting on games with the Lions in them. The Cowboys are probably dead. The Patriots were underdogs for a reason. Really can’t believe how bad the Rams looked. Stafford’s injury might have been worse than we thought. But it’s Week 1. We still have a lot more money to win and games to play. Let’s take a look at the lines for NFL Week 2 Wong Teasers.


Let’s Talk About Teasers – 2021 Recap

6 Point Teasers

Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong’s strategy:

– Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3

– Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.

NOTE: The original Wong Criteria does not include +3 or -9 but this is how the post was done previously so we will continue to use them. Over the past 3 years it has only made a difference of about 1.5% to include those bets.

It is not recommended to tease game totals

The reasoning behind this methodology is that games are frequently decided by a final margin of 3, 6, or 7. So we play teasers in such a manner that we gain these numbers in the teaser movement.


Sweetheart Teasers

10-point teasers are often called “sweetheart” teasers. Over the past three years, underdogs of +1½, +2, +2½ were 69-10 (87.3%). Favorites from -10 to -10.5 in a 10 point teaser have a record of 36-8 (87.8%) and -12 to -12.5 have been a perfect 11-0. After looking at a small sample size in 2017-2020, I’ve decided to track 10-point teasers according to the following methodology:

– For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;

– Tease the favorite at -10, -10½

– Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3;


NFL Week 2 Wong Teasers Lines

All lines are courtesy of WynnBet. Please note that the results posted next week may differ from what is below due to line movement.

This will show the record of that team as a 6pt teaser in the current situation this week. So if they’re an underdog, their record below will be their record as an underdog. The total is only on this chart so you can reference it.

Wednesday Spread Total Record since 2018 10 Point Record
Panthers +2.5 42.5 11-1 11-1
Steelers +1.5 40.5 6-2 7-1
Saints +3 44 9-3
Packers -10 42.5 0-0
Bengals -8 43 1-0
Commanders +2.5 49 10-3 11-2
Rams -10.5 47 1-0
49ers -10 42.5 0-0
Broncos -10 46 0-0
Bills -10 49.5 0-0
Vikings +2.5 50.5 9-2 10-1

So how do I bet these?

Typically, I will form 2-3 teasers taking in information from handicappers at the Sports Gambling Podcast Network as well as my own handicaps on teams that meet the criteria. As well as any additional trends.


2022 Results

Teaser Line Record Win %
6 pt +1 ½ thru +3 1-4 20%
6 pt -7 ½ thru -9 0-0 0%
10 pt +1 ½ thru +2 ½ 0-3 0%
10 pt -10 thru -10.5 0-0 0%

 

Week Record Win %
1 1-4 20%

If you are interested in doing a little deeper dive into these bets continue below.


Historical Wong Teaser Stats

Teaser Year Spread Record Win %
6 pt 2018 +1½ thru +3 59-18 76.62%
6 pt 2019 +1½ thru +3 52-18 74.29%
6 pt 2020 +1½ thru +3 60-16 78.95%
6 pt 2021 +1½ thru +3 67-17 79.76%
6 pt 2018 -7½ thru -9 18-3 85.71%
6 pt 2019 -7½ thru -9 13-4 76.47%
6 pt 2020 -7½ thru -9 25-3 89.29%
6 pt 2021 -7½ thru -9 24-5 82.76%
10 pt 2018 +1½ thru +2½ 35-3 92.1%
10 pt 2019 +1½ thru +2½ 35-5 87.5%
10 pt 2020 +1½ thru +2½ 34-6 85%
10 pt 2021 +1½ thru +2½ 36-3 92.3%
10 pt 2018 -10 thru -10½ 10-1 90.91%
10 pt 2019 -10 thru -10½ 10-3 76.92%
10 pt 2020 -10 thru -10½ 8-0 100%
10 pt 2021 -10 thru -10½ 13-0 100%

pointsbet risk free bet

Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have a breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. These are specifically for my book so yours may differ.


Weekly Wong Teaser Records 2018-2021

Week Record Win %
1 22-4 84.62%
2 17-3 85%
3 26-2 92.86%
4 16-6 72.73%
5 19-4 82.61%
6 17-8 73.08%
7 15-6 68%
8 12-1 92.3%
9 17-3 85%
10 16-4 80%
11 14-8 63.64%
12 22-3 88%
13 17-4 80.95%
14 22-9 70.97%
15 18-4 81.82%
16 23-4 85.19%
17 9-7 56.25%
18 2-0 100%

Regarding Game Totals < 49

Do totals matter? Another word of advice that some Wong bettors give is to only play games with low totals. The idea certainly makes sense: points are harder to come by in a low-scoring game, so the 6-point tease is worth more. But what does the data say about this in the last three years?

From 2018-2021, here are the statistics including playoffs:

Bet Record Win %
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 234-65 78.26%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 177-50 77.97%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 36-13 73.47%

 

Bet Record Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 76-15 83.52%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 60-11 84.5%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 12-1 92.3%

If you wanted to look at only home favorites (Wong’s original criteria is home favorites):

Bet Record Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 53-12 81.25%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 43-9 82.7%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 9-1 90%

 

Here are the results for 2022:

Bet Record Win %
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 1-4 20%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 1-2 33%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 0-0 0%

 

Bet Record Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 0-0 0%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 0-0 0%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 0-0 0%

 

RELATED CONTENT

USFL Draft Pool

USFL Draft Pool Trackers And Players

By Michael Del Negro / February 8, 2022 / 0 Comments

2023 Dynasty Rookie Rankings

By David Heilman / December 5, 2022 / 0 Comments

Dynasty Football: 2023 Rookie Rankings

By David Heilman / August 14, 2022 / 0 Comments
Top Fantasy Playoff Defenses To Stash

Top 5 Fantasy Playoff Defenses To Stash

By Wil Rivera / November 18, 2021 / 0 Comments
UFC 282 DraftKings Picks, Fantasy UFC

UFC 282 Predictions

By Jeff Fox / December 7, 2022 / 0 Comments

Advertisement
Advertisement

More in NFL