SPARTANBURG, SC – JULY 27: Carolina Panthers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) looks to throw a pass during the first day of Carolina Panthers training camp at Wofford College in Spartanburg, S.C. on July 27, 2022. (Photo by John Byrum/Icon Sportswire)

What’s up guys! Sitting here in July now, just patiently awaiting week 1 of the NFL…so I figured I would take some time to break down the 2021 season since I miss it so much. Below you will find the updated statistics with the 2021 season concluded, and then be sure to be on the lookout for the Week 1 article probably the week before the season starts.

Overall, great season for Wong teasers in 2021, coming out at right about 90% hit rate for the full season on 6-point teasers. Looking forward to the 2022 season. Be sure to follow me here for each weekly update. Usually, they will be on Wednesdays if there is a Thursday night game or Fridays if there isn’t.

Let’s Talk About Teasers – 2021 Recap

6 Point Teasers

Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong’s strategy:

– Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3

– Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.

NOTE: The original Wong Criteria do not include +3 or -9, but this is how the post was done previously, so we will continue to use them. Over the past three years, it has only made a difference of about 1.5% to include those.

It is not recommended to tease game totals.

The reasoning behind this methodology is that games are frequently decided by a final margin of 3, 6, or 7. So we play teasers in such a manner that we gain these numbers in the teaser movement.

Sweetheart Teasers

10-point teasers are often called “sweetheart” teasers. Over the past three years, underdogs of +1½, +2, and +2½ were 69-10 (87.3%). Favorites from -10 to -10.5 in a 10-point teaser have a record of 36-8 (87.8%), and -12 to -12.5 have been a perfect 11-0. After looking at a small sample size in 2017-2020, I’ve decided to track 10-point teasers according to the following methodology:

– For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;

– Tease the favorite at -10, -10½

– Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3

2021 Results

Teaser	Line	Record	Win %
6 pt	+1 ½ thru +3	67-17	79.76%
6 pt	-7 ½ thru -9	24-5	82.76%
10 pt	+1 ½ thru +2 ½	36-3	92.3%
10 pt	-10 thru -10.5	13-0	100%

Week	Record	Win %
1	4-3	57.14%
2	4-0	100%
3	9-0	100%
4	5-2	71.43%
5	8-2	80%
6	5-1	83.33%
7	4-1	80%
8	3-0	100%
9	4-0	100%
10	3-4	42.86%
11	1-3	25%
12	7-0	100%
13	6-0	100%
14	7-0	100%
15	4-2	66.66%
16	5-1	83.33%
17	3-2	60%
18	2-0	100%

Historical Wong Teaser Stats

Teaser	Year	Spread	Record	Win %
6 pt	2018	+1½ thru +3	59-18	76.62%
6 pt	2019	+1½ thru +3	52-18	74.29%
6 pt	2020	+1½ thru +3	60-16	78.95%
6 pt	2021	+1½ thru +3	67-17	79.76%
6 pt	2018	-7½ thru -9	18-3	85.71%
6 pt	2019	-7½ thru -9	13-4	76.47%
6 pt	2020	-7½ thru -9	25-3	89.29%
6 pt	2021	-7½ thru -9	24-5	82.76%
10 pt	2018	+1½ thru +2½	35-3	92.1%
10 pt	2019	+1½ thru +2½	35-5	87.5%
10 pt	2020	+1½ thru +2½	34-6	85%
10 pt	2021	+1½ thru +2½	36-3	92.3%
10 pt	2018	-10 thru -10½	10-1	90.91%
10 pt	2019	-10 thru -10½	10-3	76.92%
10 pt	2020	-10 thru -10½	8-0	100%
10 pt	2021	-10 thru -10½	13-0	100%

Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have a breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. These are specifically for my book, so yours may differ.

Weekly Wong Teaser Records 2018-2021

Week	Record	Win %
1	22-4	84.62%
2	17-3	85%
3	26-2	92.86%
4	16-6	72.73%
5	19-4	82.61%
6	17-8	73.08%
7	15-6	68%
8	12-1	92.3%
9	17-3	85%
10	16-4	80%
11	14-8	63.64%
12	22-3	88%
13	17-4	80.95%
14	22-9	70.97%
15	18-4	81.82%
16	23-4	85.19%
17	9-7	56.25%
18	2-0	100%

If you are interested in doing a little deeper dive into these bets, continue below…

Regarding Game Totals < 49

Do totals matter? Another word of advice that some Wong bettors give is to only play games with low totals. The idea certainly makes sense: points are harder to come by in a low-scoring game, so the 6-point tease is worth more. But what does the data say about this in the last three years?

From 2018-2021, here are the statistics, including playoffs:

Bet	Record	Win %
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3	234-65	78.26%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3)	177-50	77.97%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3)	36-13	73.47%

Bet	Record	Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9	76-15	83.52%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9)	60-11	84.5%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9)	12-1	92.3%

If you wanted to look at only home favorites (Wong’s original criteria is home favorites):

Bet	Record	Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9	53-12	81.25%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9)	43-9	82.7%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9)	9-1	90%

Here are the results for 2021:

Bet	Record	Win %
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3	67-17	79.76%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3)	51-11	82.26%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3)	10-5	66.67%

Bet	Record	Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9	24-5	82.76%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9)	21-3	87.5%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9)	5-1	83.33%

So excited for the 2022 season…be sure to follow me on Twitter, where I will post some of the Teasers I do each week. Good luck this season, and Let it ride!