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Let’s Talk About Teasers – 2021 Recap

SPARTANBURG, SC – JULY 27: Carolina Panthers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) looks to throw a pass during the first day of Carolina Panthers training camp at Wofford College in Spartanburg, S.C. on July 27, 2022. (Photo by John Byrum/Icon Sportswire)

What’s up guys! Sitting here in July now, just patiently awaiting week 1 of the NFL…so I figured I would take some time to break down the 2021 season since I miss it so much. Below you will find the updated statistics with the 2021 season concluded, and then be sure to be on the lookout for the Week 1 article probably the week before the season starts.

Overall, great season for Wong teasers in 2021, coming out at right about 90% hit rate for the full season on 6-point teasers. Looking forward to the 2022 season. Be sure to follow me here for each weekly update. Usually, they will be on Wednesdays if there is a Thursday night game or Fridays if there isn’t.

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Let’s Talk About Teasers – 2021 Recap

6 Point Teasers

Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong’s strategy:

– Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3

– Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.

NOTE: The original Wong Criteria do not include +3 or -9, but this is how the post was done previously, so we will continue to use them. Over the past three years, it has only made a difference of about 1.5% to include those.

It is not recommended to tease game totals.

The reasoning behind this methodology is that games are frequently decided by a final margin of 3, 6, or 7. So we play teasers in such a manner that we gain these numbers in the teaser movement.

Sweetheart Teasers

10-point teasers are often called “sweetheart” teasers. Over the past three years, underdogs of +1½, +2, and +2½ were 69-10 (87.3%). Favorites from -10 to -10.5 in a 10-point teaser have a record of 36-8 (87.8%), and -12 to -12.5 have been a perfect 11-0. After looking at a small sample size in 2017-2020, I’ve decided to track 10-point teasers according to the following methodology:

– For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;

– Tease the favorite at -10, -10½

– Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3


2021 Results

Teaser Line Record Win %
6 pt +1 ½ thru +3 67-17 79.76%
6 pt -7 ½ thru -9 24-5 82.76%
10 pt +1 ½ thru +2 ½ 36-3 92.3%
10 pt -10 thru -10.5 13-0 100%

 

Week Record Win %
1 4-3 57.14%
2 4-0 100%
3 9-0 100%
4 5-2 71.43%
5 8-2 80%
6 5-1 83.33%
7 4-1 80%
8 3-0 100%
9 4-0 100%
10 3-4 42.86%
11 1-3 25%
12 7-0 100%
13 6-0 100%
14 7-0 100%
15 4-2 66.66%
16 5-1 83.33%
17 3-2 60%
18 2-0 100%

Historical Wong Teaser Stats

Teaser Year Spread Record Win %
6 pt 2018 +1½ thru +3 59-18 76.62%
6 pt 2019 +1½ thru +3 52-18 74.29%
6 pt 2020 +1½ thru +3 60-16 78.95%
6 pt 2021 +1½ thru +3 67-17 79.76%
6 pt 2018 -7½ thru -9 18-3 85.71%
6 pt 2019 -7½ thru -9 13-4 76.47%
6 pt 2020 -7½ thru -9 25-3 89.29%
6 pt 2021 -7½ thru -9 24-5 82.76%
10 pt 2018 +1½ thru +2½ 35-3 92.1%
10 pt 2019 +1½ thru +2½ 35-5 87.5%
10 pt 2020 +1½ thru +2½ 34-6 85%
10 pt 2021 +1½ thru +2½ 36-3 92.3%
10 pt 2018 -10 thru -10½ 10-1 90.91%
10 pt 2019 -10 thru -10½ 10-3 76.92%
10 pt 2020 -10 thru -10½ 8-0 100%
10 pt 2021 -10 thru -10½ 13-0 100%

 

Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have a breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. These are specifically for my book, so yours may differ.


Weekly Wong Teaser Records 2018-2021

Week Record Win %
1 22-4 84.62%
2 17-3 85%
3 26-2 92.86%
4 16-6 72.73%
5 19-4 82.61%
6 17-8 73.08%
7 15-6 68%
8 12-1 92.3%
9 17-3 85%
10 16-4 80%
11 14-8 63.64%
12 22-3 88%
13 17-4 80.95%
14 22-9 70.97%
15 18-4 81.82%
16 23-4 85.19%
17 9-7 56.25%
18 2-0 100%

 

If you are interested in doing a little deeper dive into these bets, continue below…


Regarding Game Totals < 49

Do totals matter? Another word of advice that some Wong bettors give is to only play games with low totals. The idea certainly makes sense: points are harder to come by in a low-scoring game, so the 6-point tease is worth more. But what does the data say about this in the last three years?

From 2018-2021, here are the statistics, including playoffs:

Bet Record Win %
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 234-65 78.26%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 177-50 77.97%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 36-13 73.47%

 

Bet Record Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 76-15 83.52%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 60-11 84.5%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 12-1 92.3%

 

If you wanted to look at only home favorites (Wong’s original criteria is home favorites):

Bet Record Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 53-12 81.25%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 43-9 82.7%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 9-1 90%

 

Here are the results for 2021:

Bet Record Win %
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 67-17 79.76%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 51-11 82.26%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 10-5 66.67%

 

Bet Record Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 24-5 82.76%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 21-3 87.5%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 5-1 83.33%

So excited for the 2022 season…be sure to follow me on Twitter, where I will post some of the Teasers I do each week. Good luck this season, and Let it ride!

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