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Let’s Talk About Teasers – Week 9

Let's Talk About Teasers - Week 9

Let’s Talk About Teasers – Week 9

Well, RIP to all the Bengals backers including myself. Should have listened to Sean Green on the Sports Gambling Podcast who called the upset squeeze spot for the Bengals but even I don’t think Sean would have thought the Jets would win outright!

Still not a terrible week for us, personally I hit my +150 3 teamer which saved my teaser plays. I mentioned on my Twitter and previous posts that I refused to tease or bet any game the Lions are in this year because of how they have screwed us this season..but they continue to meet the Wong Criteria! Just be wary with them, they either keep it close in the 4th or just get blown out.

Let’s Talk About Teasers – Week 9

6 Point Teasers

Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong’s strategy:

– Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3

– Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.

NOTE: The original Wong Criteria do not include +3 or -9 but this is how the post was done previously so we will continue to use them. Over the past 3 years, it has only made a difference of about 1.5% to include those.

It is not recommended to tease game totals

The reasoning behind this methodology is that games are frequently decided by a final margin of 3, 6, or 7. So we play teasers in such a manner that we gain these numbers in the teaser movement.

Sweetheart Teasers

10-point teasers are often called “sweetheart” teasers. Over the past three years, underdogs of +1½, +2, +2½ were 69-10 (87.3%). Favorites from -10 to -10.5 in a 10 point teaser have a record of 36-8 (87.8%) and -12 to -12.5 have been a perfect 11-0. After looking at a small sample size in 2017-2020, I’ve decided to track 10-point teasers according to the following methodology:

– For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;

– Tease the favorite at -10, -10½

– Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3;

Historical Wong Teaser Stats

Teaser Year Spread Record Win %
6 pt 2017 +1½ thru +3 62-19 76.54%
6 pt 2018 +1½ thru +3 55-17 76.39%
6 pt 2019 +1½ thru +3 51-17 75%
6 pt 2020 +1½ thru +3 55-12 82.09%
6 pt 2017 -7½ thru -9 24-7 77.42%
6 pt 2018 -7½ thru -9 17-3 85%
6 pt 2019 -7½ thru -9 11-4 73.33%
6 pt 2020 -7½ thru -9 23-3 88.46%
10 pt 2017 +1½ thru +2½ 34-7 82.93%
10 pt 2018 +1½ thru +2½ 32-3 91.43%
10 pt 2019 +1½ thru +2½ 33-5 86.84%
10 pt 2020 +1½ thru +2½ 31-5 86.11%
10 pt 2017 -10 thru -10½ 8-1 88.89&
10 pt 2018 -10 thru -10½ 10-1 90.91%
10 pt 2019 -10 thru -10½ 10-3 76.92%
10 pt 2020 -10 thru -10½ 8-0 100%

Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have a breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. These are specifically for my book so your Week 9 teasers may differ.

Week 8 Results

Closing Spread 6 Point 10 Point
Panthers +2.5 WIN WIN
Titans +3 WIN
Lions +3 LOSS
Chiefs -10.5 WIN

2021 Results

Teaser Line Record Win %
6 pt +1 ½ thru +3 33-9 78.57%
6 pt -7 ½ thru -9 10-1 91%
10 pt +1 ½ thru +2 ½ 17-0 100%
10 pt -10 thru -10.5 4-0 100%

As of Wednesday night, the unofficial list of Wong teasers this week are:

Wednesday Spread Total 6pt Teaser Record since 2017 10pt Record
Colts -10.5 46 0-1
Browns +2.5 47 6-0 4-0
Cowboys -10 49.5 0-0
Giants +3 46.5 5-5
Chiefs -7.5 48 5-2
Eagles +2 50 5-2 3-0
Rams -8 53.5 4-0

My plays This Week

1u 10 point – Colts -.5, Browns +12.5, Cowboys PK

I really like the fade of the Jets this week coming off a HUGE win against the Bengals, a breakout performance for their backup QB, and a short week. We are going to stick with the Wong Criteria this week and throw in the Cowboys who I love this year. Been riding them ATS since week 1 and will continue to do so. They are due for an upset but not at home as 10 point favorites against a bad Broncos team. The Browns have a big chip on their shoulder this week coming off back-to-back losses I like them to keep it close even without OBJ who wasn’t really helping them anyways.

That’s all I am taking right now but as for teams I am for sure leaving off my teasers this week that are on the criteria:

Chiefs – Personally, I think the Chiefs have no business being 7.5 point favorites even against an Aaron Rodgersless Packers team.

Giants – At home, they haven’t been very good, and there are just too many unknowns with the Raiders this season.

Make sure to follow me @KerrCameron on Twitter and I will post them there as the lines move.

If you are interested in doing a little deeper dive into these bets and Week 9 teasers continue reading below…

Regarding game totals < 49

Do totals matter? Another word of advice that some Wong bettors give is to only play games with low totals. The idea certainly makes sense: points are harder to come by in a low-scoring game, so the 6-point tease is worth more. But what does the data say about this in the last three years?

From 2017-2020, here are the statistics including playoffs:

Bet Record Win %
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 235-71 76.8%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 183-54 77.22%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 94-14 87%

 

Bet Record Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 82-18 82%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 66-16 80.49%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 17-2 89.47%

If you wanted to look at only home favorites (Wong’s original criteria is home favorites):

Bet Record Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 15-16 78.67%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 47-15 75.8%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 14-2 87.5%

Here is where we will track this stat for 2021:

Bet Record Win %
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 33-9 78.57%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 23-6 79.31%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 4-2 66%

 

Bet Record Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 10-1 91%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 9-0 100%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 1-0 100%

How to bet these games

There have been lots of questions and comments on how to bet these Wong teasers. I think there was some thought that doing a Round Robin of 2 or 3 team teasers of the matching games would be ideal. I am not convinced that makes sense.

For example, there are 6 matching in a certain week and only 1 team lost their tease. If you had done a round-robin of 2 team teasers from those 6 matching games, you would have 15 possible teaser bets. In this scenario, if you had 5 out of 6 teams that won their tease, then you would be profitable. If only 4 out of 6 had won their tease, then you would have not broken even.

I think the recommendation is to pick and choose teams that match our criteria (and any other information you use to make an informed bet) and put those into a 2 or 3 team teaser bet. Some more great teasers here in Week 9 so get in on the action now.

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