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Let’s Talk About Teasers – Week 6

Let's Talk About Teasers - Week 6

Let’s Talk About Teasers – Week 6

Great weekend for the Wong teasers in week 5. A total of 9-2 against the closing lines. Personally our posted teasers went 3-1 with our only loss coming to from the Vikings who didn’t cover the -3 by 1 point against the Lions who were attempting to scramble for their 1st win. Still a positive 2.14u!

This is a brief overview of the work I have done to revamp and standardize the tracking of the lines that fall into this criteria so we can continue to find the value in this type of bet. For a more in depth look at Wong teasers visit the Wong Teasers Week 6 Reddit Post

Let’s Talk About Teasers – NFL Week 6

6 Point Teasers

Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong’s strategy:

– Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3

– Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.

NOTE: The original Wong Criteria do not include +3 or -9 but this is how the post was done previously so we will continue to use them. Over the past 3 years it has only made a difference of about 1.5% to include those.

It is not recommended to tease game totals.

The reasoning behind this methodology is that games are frequently decided by a final margin of 3, 6, or 7. So we play teasers in such a manner that we gain these numbers in the teaser movement.

Sweetheart Teasers

10-point teasers are often called “sweetheart” teasers. Over the past three years, underdogs of +1½, +2, +2½ were 69-10 (87.3%). Favorites from -10 to -10.5 in a 10 point teaser have a record of 36-8 (87.8%) and -12 to -12.5 have been a perfect 11-0. After looking at a small sample size in 2017-2020, I’ve decided to track 10-point teasers according to the following methodology:

– For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;

-Tease the favorite at -10, -10½ , -12, or -12½

– Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3;

Historical Wong Teaser Records

Teaser Year Spread Record Win %
6 pt 2017 +1½ thru +3 62-19 76.54%
6 pt 2018 +1½ thru +3 55-17 76.39%
6 pt 2019 +1½ thru +3 51-17 75%
6 pt 2020 +1½ thru +3 55-12 82.09%
6 pt 2017 -7½ thru -9 24-7 77.42%
6 pt 2018 -7½ thru -9 17-3 85%
6 pt 2019 -7½ thru -9 11-4 73.33%
6 pt 2020 -7½ thru -9 23-3 88.46%
10 pt 2017 +1½ thru +2½ 34-7 82.93%
10 pt 2018 +1½ thru +2½ 32-3 91.43%
10 pt 2019 +1½ thru +2½ 33-5 86.84%
10 pt 2020 +1½ thru +2½ 31-5 86.11%
10 pt 2017 -10 thru -10½ 8-1 88.89&
10 pt 2018 -10 thru -10½ 10-1 90.91%
10 pt 2019 -10 thru -10½ 10-3 76.92%
10 pt 2020 -10 thru -10½ 8-0 100%

Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. These are specifically for my book so yours may differ.

2021 Results will be tracked here:

Teaser Line Record Win %
6 pt +1 ½ thru +3 25-6 80.65%
6 pt -7 ½ thru -9 8-1 88.89%
10 pt +1 ½ thru +2 ½ 14-0 100%

This Week

As of Wednesday night, the unofficial list of Wong teasers this week are:

Wednesday Spread Total 6pt Teaser Record since 2017 10pt Record
Jaguars +3 47 7-6
Chargers +3 52 8-2
Cardinals +3 49.5 11-4

My Plays This Week

Not a whole lot I like this week so far with the limited amount of decent numbers we have right now.

1u – Buccaneers -1, Chiefs -1, Chargers +9

I really like the Chargers this week against the Ravens. The Colts really exposed their defense Monday scoring on all but 1 drive I believe. The only reason the Ravens were able to come back was the injuries on that Colts defense. They were very gassed by the 4th and OT and a player like Lamar is going to be able to take advantage. The Buccaneers have Tom Brady in Prime Time on Thursday night. I don’t see how they lose to the Eagles who are struggling and coming off a comeback win. The Chiefs are going to go into Washington and put up 40 against their struggling offense. I think that the Bills game was a big wake up game for them and Patrick is gojng to take care of the ball and get it done easy.

I will have more most likely and you can follow me @KerrCameron on Twitter and I will post them there as the lines move.

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