Great weekend for the Wong teasers in week 5. A total of 9-2 against the closing lines. Personally our posted teasers went 3-1 with our only loss coming to from the Vikings who didn’t cover the -3 by 1 point against the Lions who were attempting to scramble for their 1st win. Still a positive 2.14u!
This is a brief overview of the work I have done to revamp and standardize the tracking of the lines that fall into this criteria so we can continue to find the value in this type of bet. For a more in depth look at Wong teasers visit the Wong Teasers Week 6 Reddit Post
Let’s Talk About Teasers – NFL Week 6
6 Point Teasers
Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong’s strategy:
– Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3
– Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.
NOTE: The original Wong Criteria do not include +3 or -9 but this is how the post was done previously so we will continue to use them. Over the past 3 years it has only made a difference of about 1.5% to include those.
It is not recommended to tease game totals.
The reasoning behind this methodology is that games are frequently decided by a final margin of 3, 6, or 7. So we play teasers in such a manner that we gain these numbers in the teaser movement.
10-point teasers are often called “sweetheart” teasers. Over the past three years, underdogs of +1½, +2, +2½ were 69-10 (87.3%). Favorites from -10 to -10.5 in a 10 point teaser have a record of 36-8 (87.8%) and -12 to -12.5 have been a perfect 11-0. After looking at a small sample size in 2017-2020, I’ve decided to track 10-point teasers according to the following methodology:
– For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;
-Tease the favorite at -10, -10½ , -12, or -12½
– Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3;
Historical Wong Teaser Records
|6 pt||2017||+1½ thru +3||62-19||76.54%|
|6 pt||2018||+1½ thru +3||55-17||76.39%|
|6 pt||2019||+1½ thru +3||51-17||75%|
|6 pt||2020||+1½ thru +3||55-12||82.09%|
|6 pt||2017||-7½ thru -9||24-7||77.42%|
|6 pt||2018||-7½ thru -9||17-3||85%|
|6 pt||2019||-7½ thru -9||11-4||73.33%|
|6 pt||2020||-7½ thru -9||23-3||88.46%|
|10 pt||2017||+1½ thru +2½||34-7||82.93%|
|10 pt||2018||+1½ thru +2½||32-3||91.43%|
|10 pt||2019||+1½ thru +2½||33-5||86.84%|
|10 pt||2020||+1½ thru +2½||31-5||86.11%|
|10 pt||2017||-10 thru -10½||8-1||88.89&|
|10 pt||2018||-10 thru -10½||10-1||90.91%|
|10 pt||2019||-10 thru -10½||10-3||76.92%|
|10 pt||2020||-10 thru -10½||8-0||100%|
Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. These are specifically for my book so yours may differ.
2021 Results will be tracked here:
|6 pt||+1 ½ thru +3||25-6||80.65%|
|6 pt||-7 ½ thru -9||8-1||88.89%|
|10 pt||+1 ½ thru +2 ½||14-0||100%|
As of Wednesday night, the unofficial list of Wong teasers this week are:
|Wednesday Spread||Total||6pt Teaser Record since 2017||10pt Record|
My Plays This Week
Not a whole lot I like this week so far with the limited amount of decent numbers we have right now.
1u – Buccaneers -1, Chiefs -1, Chargers +9
I really like the Chargers this week against the Ravens. The Colts really exposed their defense Monday scoring on all but 1 drive I believe. The only reason the Ravens were able to come back was the injuries on that Colts defense. They were very gassed by the 4th and OT and a player like Lamar is going to be able to take advantage. The Buccaneers have Tom Brady in Prime Time on Thursday night. I don’t see how they lose to the Eagles who are struggling and coming off a comeback win. The Chiefs are going to go into Washington and put up 40 against their struggling offense. I think that the Bills game was a big wake up game for them and Patrick is gojng to take care of the ball and get it done easy.
I will have more most likely and you can follow me @KerrCameron on Twitter and I will post them there as the lines move.
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