On the surface, my UFC predictions for last week’s UFC Fight Night: Santos vs Teixeira weren’t so bad. I went 5-5. But the five I hit were all favorites, so the bankroll took a big hit. But there’s always another UFC event just around the corner! This weekend’s event is UFC Fight Night: Felder vs dos Anjos from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Here are my UFC predictions for Saturday. Every fight! All winners! Unintentionally, I picked more underdogs than normal this week, so it’s going to be boom or bust. Let’s go with BOOM.
All odds courtesy of MyBookie
UFC Predictions Vegas 14
Paul Felder (+155) vs Rafael dos Anjos
‘The Irish Dragon’ Paul Felder stepped in for the ill Islam Makhachev earlier this week, so this is a very short-notice fight for the MMA lightweight/commentator. Still, I’m going against my data and taking the short-notice fighter, and betting underdog, to win this main event. RDA is 1-4 in his last five fights and gets hit a lot. The hard-hitting Felder should definitely take advantage of that.
Khaos Williams (+195) vs Abdul Razak Alhassan
Yep, another dog. This is going to be a slugfest, with a good chance of it ending in the first round. Consider taking that as a prop bet. Someone will be separated from his consciousness. I’m betting it’ll be Alhassan. Khaos Williams has won seven straight, is nine years younger, has four inches of reach, and has the striking stats all in his favor.
Julian Marquez (-290) vs Saparbek Safarov
It’s been 25 months since Julian Marquez stepped into the octagon. That makes this -290 line too high for my liking. I’m still picking him to win because he’s better than SS, but I’d shy away from this number. Ring rust is a real thing.
Eryk Anders (-140) vs Antonio Arroyo
The Anders’ line has been creeping down. It sat at -160 on Sunday. That means bettors like Antonio Arroyo’s chances. Still, the former college linebacker (he won a national championship with Alabama) stays my pick. His power, athleticism, and two inches of reach should get the job done.
Brendan Allen (-115) vs Sean Strickland
This fight was added to the card early in this week, so both guys won’t have much of a chance to prepare for each other. The fight is currently a pick ’em at -115, and will be contested at a catchweight of 195 pounds instead of the normal middleweight limit (180 pounds). I’ll take the 24-year-old Allen to best the veteran, as he’s looked unstoppable since joining the big leagues (3-0).
Kay Hansen (-220) vs Cory McKenna
Two 21-year-old women’s strawweight prospects collide in the prelim headliner. This will be tough sledding for the debuting McKenna, as Hansen has much more big time experience and will be the bigger fighter. I would have liked to see a better matchup for McKenna in her UFC debut, but them’s the breaks.
Miranda Granger (-135) vs Ashley Yoder
Another 115-pound women’s fight, but in this one the line has moved from a pick ’em earlier in the week to Granger being a slight favorite. I agree with this, as Yoder has struggled in the UFC (2-5), and Granger should have the striking advantage while also having decent grappling.
Rhys McKee (+155) vs Alex Morono
McKee entered the UFC with lots of hype, only to be thrown in to the maw of Khamzat Chimaev in his debut, who made quick work of him. This is a much more favorable matchup, and I think the much younger, much bigger McKee can get the job done.
Jose Alberto Quinonez (+105) vs Louis Smolka
Quinonez has the striking and grappling stats in his favor heading into this battle against the inconsistent Smolka, who has already been cut by the UFC once before. I’ll take the plus money here, thank you very much.
Kanako Murata (-180) vs Randa Markos
Murata will be making her UFC debut, but she is extremely experienced, having gone 12-1 in her pro MMA career, most of it in big promotions like Rizin and Invicta FC (she also was a gold medalist in wrestling for Japan in the Asian Wrestling Championship). Markos is taking this fight on short notice, and should have trouble utilizing her key weapon – wrestling – against an opponent of this caliber.
Tony Gravely (-150) vs Geraldo de Freitas
Gravely was at -190 a few days ago, so I’m liking this lower number for the increased profit. He should have the advantage over GDF in striking and grappling.
Don’Tale Mayes (-225) vs Roque Martinez
Two big heavyweights go at it in the curtain jerker. I’m going with the much bigger, much younger, ‘Lord Kong’ to get things started off right for us on Saturday night.
UFC Predictions Overall Results
Return on Investment: -(0.6)%