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CJ Cup @ Shadow Creek Picks and Props

CJ Cup @ Shadow Creek Picks and Props

For those who missed it, please check out the CJ Cup @ Shadow Creek Preview and Betting Strategies for the types of golfers you should look to target for your bets. With that in mind, here’s the CJ Cup @ Shadow Creek picks I like this week. (with odds courtesy of MyBookie.ag).

CJ Cup @ Shadow Creek Picks:
Outright Winners

Justin Thomas – 11/1

Justin Thomas’ go to shot are high fades, which should suit perfect on this golf course. He also tends to fare much better in benign, scoreable weather conditions. Las Vegas will play hot and arid with very little rain. These are the perfect conditions for Justin Thomas to run away on the leaderboard.

Rory McIlroy – 11/1

The results have been a little better lately, though he’s still struggling with his irons and his putting. He’s had a few weeks off to work on a few things, and given he’s a world class player he’s fully capable showing up to this event on point. He also typically prefers a draw but he’s a player who can work the ball both ways with ease when he’s clicking. With Dustin Johnson out of the field, the list of guys who can beat Rory at his best are a little smaller.

Matthew Wolff – 22/1

Matthew Wolff is the hottest name in golf, and for good reason. Wolff has gained 1.81 shots per round tee-to-green over his last 16 rounds. While Matthew Wolff’s natural shot shape is a draw and isn’t optimal for Shadow Creek, he hits it so high that he has great control to land softly on the fairway. He also hits towering iron shots which will be perfect for the tricky tucked and guarded pin positions on certain greens. The time to bet Matthew Wolff above 20/1 is coming to a close. Get in while you still can.

Collin Morikawa – 25/1

Morikawa missed the cut last week, but it wasn’t all bad news. He still gained just under 1.5 strokes per round tee-to-green and gained over a stroke per round with his irons. That’s vintage Collin Morikawa. What is also vintage Collin Morikawa is his deficiencies on the greens, which reared its ugly head last week. His ideal left-to-right shot shape is a great fit for Shadow Creek, and should he regress with the putter he could chalk up another win.

Sungjae Im – 40/1

Whatever ails Sungjae Im had after the restart seem to be cured. Over his last 16 rounds Im has gained 1.31 shots per round tee-to-green on the field. He also prefers to play a high fade both off the tee and into greens, which should help put him in great spots on several holes on the golf course.

Other Positional Props

Xander Schauffele Top 10 – +125

Xander is a short-field, high purse tournament machine. Though it’s concerning that his ball striking hasn’t matched his great putting and short game in 2020, these tournaments are the ones where he shines brightest. Getting plus odds for a Top 10 finish is a great bet.

Hideki Matsuyama Top 10 – +250

UIltimately, Hideki’s putting woes will keep him from winning the tournament. But everything else about Hideki suggests he’s in for yet another close call finish. Hideki loves to hit towering high fades both off the tee and onto the green, which will help him immensely with the golf course layout. Hideki should be in the mix late on Sunday, tragically coming up short again. But for bettors who take him with a Top 10 prop it’ll be a much happier ending.

Gary Woodland Top 20 – +225

Total gut call here. Woodland has struggled badly since the Colonial but could see a resurgence of form after a few weeks off. At his best, he’s one of the best ball strikers in the field who hits towering high fades and can get hot with the putter. He could be back towards the top of the leaderboard again if he has figured things out.

Other Top 20’s to Consider:

  • Sergio Garcia – +150
  • Viktor Hovland – +150
  • Louis Oosthuizen – +150
  • Joaquin Niemann – +200
  • Bubba Watson – +225
  • Brian Harman – +225
  • Alex Noren – +225
  • Si Woo Kim – +250
  • Russell Henley – +250
  • Shane Lowry – +250
  • Sebastian Munoz – +300
  • Keegan Bradley – +335
  • Brendan Steele – +350
  • Corey Conners – +350
  • Dylan Frittelli – +400
  • Tom Hoge – +550
  • Harry Higgs – +650

CJ Cup @ Shadow Creek Picks:
Matchups

Viktor Hovland -110 over Tommy Fleetwood

Like Sungjae Im, Hovland seems to have fixed his mid-season ails. Over his last two tournaments he’s gained 1.78 strokes per round tee-to-green and sets up nicely for the golf course. As for Fleetwood, while he’s shown well on the European Tour lately bettors have been burned too many times lately when he comes back to America to play. I have more confidence in Hovland against Fleetwood head to head.

Tyrrell Hatton -110 over Daniel Berger

The party might be over for Daniel Berger. After a torrid Summer, Berger’s results and performance has slipped over his last few tournaments. Over his last 16 rounds, Berger is only gaining 0.15 strokes per round off the tee and is losing strokes on his approach shots. Meanwhile, Hatton comes into the event in great form and has displayed more consistent ball striking than Berger. He should beat him head to head.

Louis Oosthuizen +1.5 Strokes (-120) over Scottie Scheffler

Since recovering from COVID, Scheffler has not been the same player. Over his last two tournaments he’s lost 0.18 strokes per round tee-to-green, a far cry from the numbers he posted pre-COVID. COVID affects everyone differently, and maybe he’s still getting over the virus. As such, bettors should grab a much more consistent Louis Oosthuizen and 1.5 strokes over him this week.

Golf and NASCAR analyst for SportsGamblingPodcast.com. Co-Host of the Golf Gambling Podcast on the Sports Gambling Podcast Network. Hit him up on the SGP Slack Channel at SportsGamblingPodcast.com/Slack

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