While it may have seemed repetitive to double down on Kyler Murray and the Cardinals last week, NFL Week 2 ended up as an absolute beauty for the flowchart. The optimal lineup finished with 175.44 points and was probably in the Top 4-5% of most of your GPPs. One of the things that I haven’t touched on yet, is that you should always focus on making sure that you use all the $50,000 salary on DraftKings. Most of the pathways on the flowchart will get you close to there, but in these huge Sunday Main slates it does not do you any favors to leave money on the table. If you have a good feeling about someone, or just want to swap out to a different defense to help fill in the salary gap, I say go for it. I saw a lot of people get good results last week by using the flowchart as their base. That’s just music to my ears. Let’s keep the hot streak rolling! Our Week 3 NFL DFS Flowchart is here.
Make sure to read through last week’s article where I compared some of the benefits of focusing on condensed opportunity for game stacks instead of just always gravitating towards the highest Vegas game total. Enough about week 2, let’s get down to the details for what we have in front of us this Sunday.
NFL DFS Flowchart Week 3 – DraftKings GPP
Per Sports Info Solutions, Matthew Stafford attempted a league-high 22% of his 2019 passes 20 or more yards downfield. With Kenny Golladay sidelined the first two weeks of the 2020 season, that number has dropped down to 9.2%. It will be important to monitor the Lions WR1 as we get closer to Sunday. All signs are pointing to him making his debut this week. Not only will Stafford be getting his deep threat back, but he now faces a Cardinals team who is off to a blistering pace this season. So far, in a neutral game-script, Arizona is running 83 plays per game (1st), 53% in no-huddle (1st), and averaging only 23.4 secs/snap (3rd). This game has all the makings of a shootout. So why I am buying this as a big bounce-back week for Stafford.
After going off last week for 33.14 DKPts (QB3 in the main slate), Kyler Murray and the Cardinals will once again be extremely popular this week (see pace notes above). With Christian Kirk being ruled out on Friday, the fantasy opportunity has now condensed significantly. Some people will view this as a chance to play Andy Isabella or Larry Fitzgerald as cheap options at WR. I would rather just go with the bell-cow (Kenyan Drake) and the target-hog (DeAndre Hopkins) to help increase the floor of our lineups significantly. As per usual, I am completely punting on Defense. If you need to switch off of the Texans or Panthers in your final lineup, feel free to do so.
Low Projected Ownership
Last week’s Milly Maker winning lineup featured Travis Kelce (5% ownership) who erupted for 24 DKPts and finished as the TE5. The winning lineup also had five different players who were in the 8-12% range. While ownership is important, you don’t always need to force someone who you think is going to be less than 1% owned in there. Focus on the high floor players who are sandwiched between chalky plays on the salary scale. See the image of our NFL DFS Flowchart for reference.
A couple of names pop out this week. First, Darius Slayton who gets the benefit of Sterling Shepard going to IR last week. In games without Shepard last season, Slayton saw his targets and receptions increase and he caught four TD passes in five games. Jarvis Landry is another guy who has been pretty quiet to start the season. He now faces a Washington secondary who got torched by Terry McLaurin (flowchart) last week and is a passing funnel. Devin Singletary is another player, who I think will go largely under the radar this week. While Josh Allen and the Bills passing attack has been all the rage to start the year, Singletary’s floor sees a nice bump with rookie Zack Moss sidelined this week. Finding an RB1 who will get the lion’s share of the work under $5000 is really a great spot.
Stud RBs & Chalk
Let’s finally talk about this Seattle and Dallas game. The total is up to 57 now (highest of the season) and you have to assume there will be a lot of ownership focused on stacking this game. It makes a ton of sense, both Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson have started the season hot. Both receiving corps provide a lot of firepower. I truly think that there are five receivers in this game who have 20 DKPt potential. In a game that will be heavily owned that makes me nervous. At most, you will probably be able to play three of these receivers. If you miss on one of those receivers, you will immediately be sunk for the week. If you happen to nail the three-highest scoring guys, then you will still be battling at the top of the leaderboard with a lot of other lineups which puts immense pressure on the remainder of your roster selections.
Remember last week, when Davante Adams went 30% owned? Then Aaron Jones (8% owned) scored 3 touchdowns and won a lot of people some GPPs. I think Chris Carson provides that same leverage opportunity this week. Remember, just two weeks ago we saw Seattle’s bell-cow back catch two receiving touchdowns in the first half of their week 1 game against Atlanta. A Chris Carson explosion is well within the range of outcomes for this game script.
That does it for my flowchart analysis this week. As always, feel free to hit me up on Twitter if you want to talk lineup strategy on Saturday or Sunday morning. I will also post any updates I have to the NFL DFS flowchart as the rest of the injury news hits closer to kickoff. Good luck this weekend, let’s go finish in the green!
Past NFL DFS Flowchart Results
Week 1 – Optimal Lineup 157 DKPts, min cash in GPPs (top 20%)
Week 2 – Optimal Lineup 175.4 DKPts, 3X-4X cash in GPPs (top 4-5%)