Back again for NFL DFS Flowchart Week 2! Don’t be fooled, even though we are stacking the Cardinals again, we have a lot of boom upside this week. If you missed last week’s article, I ran through some of the basic concepts of the flowchart, so make sure to check it out first!
When it comes to game stacking, one of the most basic things to do is target games with a high total. These games are expected to see a lot of points, which will help elevate all fantasy relevant players. The highest total on the board this week is in the ATL/DAL game, where there is an enormous amount of tantalizing fantasy options. You could argue that each of these teams have up to five different players who could see an explosion on Sunday. In addition to this somewhat high variance aspect, both of these teams should garner a lot of ownership, so you will have to hit the nail on the head perfectly in order to take down a GPP with this game stack.
Another way to do things, is to look at games where the opportunity is condensed. For example, last week’s Green Bay and Minnesota game (which was a requirement in order to place highly in GPPs). Davante Adams saw 17 targets and 50% of the air yards. Allen Lazard saw 87% of the snaps and caught a touchdown (even though only 4 targets), and Adam Thielen picked up some big points in comeback garbage time but was still on the field for 96% of snaps and was on the receiving end of 42% of the Vikings yards.
This is exactly the reason that I am going back to the well with the Arizona Cardinals this week.
NFL DFS Flowchart Week 2
Kyler Murray took off on the ground 13 times last week for 91 yards and a touchdown. This week he faces a Washington defensive line that looked fast, young, and hungry in Week 1. The Football Team had 8 sacks last week, and constantly pressured Carson Wentz, and I actually view this as a positive for Murray who showed some moments of elite-level breakaway speed against a skilled Niners defense last week. Deandre Hopkins and Christian Kirk were polar opposite in Week 1. Hopkins saw 16 targets resulting in 151 yards, while Kirk only saw five targets and put up a big goose egg in the yards department. Combined, these two accounted for 90% of Arizona’s Air Yards, and I expect that to remain close to the same this week.
Similar to Arizona, the Washington Football Team kept their opportunities nice and condensed in Week 1. Terry McLaurin had a relatively quiet day catching five passes for 61 yards, while up and coming tight end Logan Thomas ended up on the receiving end of Washington’s only touchdown pass. McLaurin was on the field for 93% of snaps, while Thomas was out there 74% of the time. These two also combined for almost 60% of Washington’s Air Yards.
Low Ownership Options
There has been a flurry of injury news today, with seemingly more coming before kickoff Sunday, so I will make sure to provide some Twitter updates as we get closer to kickoff if any of these guys projections change drastically. David Montgomery was possibly held back a little bit in week 1, but still accounted for 43% of Chicago’s rushing yards and 46% of their attempts, so I like that number to rise up this week against a Giants defense that just allowed 113 yards to Benny Snell. Last week, Josh Jacobs was the chalkiest of plays against Carolina’s porous run defense and he absolutely smashed. This week, the Running Back who accounted for 65% of Tampa Bay’s rushing attempts and 77% of their rushing yards is going largely under-the-radar. Trust Bruce Arians and load up on Ronald Jones.
Davante Adams accounted for 17 targets, 14 receptions, 156 yards, and two touchdowns in week 1. Enough said. Clyde Edwards-Helaire turned 25 carries into 138 rushing yards and was also stuffed at the goal line six times and didn’t catch a single pass (even though we know he can). In 2019, Mark Andrews averaged 43.8% of the offensive snaps per game and finished as the TE2. In Week 1, Andrews was on the field for 71% of the snaps and caught two touchdowns. Arrow pointing up. Everybody is going to be on Jonathan Taylor this week (and rightly so), but I think TY Hilton is in a smash spot. Not sure if anyone noticed, but Phillip Rivers passed for the third-most yards in week 1. Hilton saw 38% of the Air Yards and should explode against this Minnesota secondary who just got torched by Aaron Rodgers.
Good luck this week!