Are you having any fun yet? Playoff basketball inside the Bubble is in full swing! And as DFS players, we get a very interesting setup as the same slates are repeated every other day. As the playoffs progress, it’s important to keep an eye on how the pricing ebbs and flows on DraftKings based on player performance. There will always be value out there, so don’t get caught up in chasing the bad chalk. I’m going to start by highlighting some of the biggest deltas in salary. Then I will breakdown the flowchart for Thursday’s slate with recommendations for DraftKings basketball picks!
Biggest Risers in Salary
Goran Dragic $5900 (+$1500) – After coming through as a value play (and a very chalky one) in game 1 with a 24-6-5 line and 42.5 DKPts, Dragic sees the steepest price increase of the day. He should still see plenty of opportunity in Game 2 with the status of Kendrick Nunn still up-in-the-air.
Giannis Antetokounmpo $11300 (+$800) – Still love him. More below.
DJ Augustin $4300 (+$800) – Hit the double-double bonus in Game 1 even with a poor showing on the shooting side. I assume some of the assists will fall back to Fultz. On the other hand, a couple more three-pointers could still see him hitting value.
Danny Green $3900 (+$700) – So the man puts up 10 pts, 2 rebounds, and 5 fouls for a whopping 15.5 DKPts and they bump him up to almost $4k? No thank you.
Biggest Fallers in Salary
Austin Rivers $3800 (-$1500) – The Rockets couldn’t seem to miss a three-pointer in Game 1, yet Austin Rivers still barely played. That does not bode well for his participation in this series.
Danuel House Jr. $4700 (-$1000) & Ben McLemore $3700 (-$900) – Neither of these guys performed well in Game 1. It’s a dice-roll figuring out the upside for Game 2. McLemore was 4-for-7 from deep and still didn’t break 20 DKPts in 24 minutes.
Steven Adams $5600 (-$800) – The Rockets didn’t have an answer for this monster on the boards. His price drop-off doesn’t make sense. Adams should continue to get all the rebounds in this series. I don’t expect Houston to attack the glass with the same aggressiveness they did in Game 1.
For those of you who are new to the flowchart, make sure to go read my introduction article for a more in-depth explanation.
I am going to ride the hot hand and stick with stacking the Milwaukee and Orlando game. Vucevic was very low owned on Tuesday, so I expect that his ownership will correct. Giannis on the other hand was pretty highly owned and just became the 2nd most expensive player on the slate. I think this will make Giannis one of the lesser owned studs and I am ready to be well over the field on him. Whether Aaron Gordon plays or not, I do not think the Magic have anybody who can guard the Greek Freak and he will have a point to prove in Game 2. I am also going to bet on a Brook Lopez bounce-back game after being horrible chalk in Game 1.
After a great Game 1 showing Malcolm Brogdon only sees his price increase $100 and may also have the benefit of playing alongside no Victor Oladipo. Regardless of Oladipo’s status, Brogdon will continue to be the main offensive facilitator and I will be over the field on him. On the other side of the ball I really like Duncan Robinson as a sneaky value play. He didn’t shoot well in Game 1 but he still took 8 three-pointers. The volume is there and at $3900 I am willing to take the risk.
The last big name that I want to touch on is Jusuf Nurkic who saw some foul trouble in Game 1 and only played 33 minutes. The Blazers will need him to be closer to the 38-40 range if they want to be competitive in Game 2 and I think there is still a lot of value at his $9000 price tag. He will most likely be underowned again on Thursday. One final note, if you play your cards right in the flowchart it is possible to make a lineup that fits Giannis in with Anthony Davis, which is extremely enticing.
Good luck everyone!