Per DraftKings, the Kansas City Chiefs are +600 favorites to repeat as Super Bowl champions, +280 favorites to win the AFC Championship, -400 favorites to win the AFC West and have a 11.5 regular-season win total, the highest mark in the entire NFL. In other words, they’re fully expected to contend and defend their title.
BetQL’s NFL Public Betting and NFL Sharp Betting Dashboards track live betting data from opening to close and, based on last season’s data, it was clear that Kansas City was widely respected by public and sharp bettors alike vs. the spread. Let’s take a look back at some betting data from Week 10 and on.
In Week 10, the Chiefs fell to the Titans in Tennessee by the score of 35-32, but attracted 68% of total tickets and 69% of total money as a five-point favorite. The next week, 56% of public bets and 62% of total money was wagered on Kansas City, who were 5.5-point favorites against the Chargers. The Chiefs won that game 24-17 and beat the spread. After a bye week, Patrick Mahomes and company smoked the Raiders in KC at 11-point favorites by the score of 40-9, which meant that 46% of public bets and 70% of total money wagered on them ended up winning.
While both public and sharp bettors didn’t lean their way in Week 14 against the Patriots in Foxborough or as large favorites in Week 15 at home against the surging Broncos, they attracted 62% of tickets and 65% of the money against the Bears in Chicago as a 6.5-point favorite in Week 16 (and won 26-3) before seeing the support of 67% of tickets and 89% of the money in Week 17 against the Chargers as a 9.5-point favorite at home against LA. They ended up winning that game to the tune of 31-21 and finished the regular season with a 10-5-1 record against the spread.
In the playoffs, they not only won all three of their games outright, but they beat the spread in all three. In the Divisional Round against the Texans, KC was victorious as 10-point favorites (51-31, 52% tickets, 55% money) before taking care of the Titans as 7-point favorites (35-24, 53% tickets, 67% money) and 49ers as 1.5-point favorites (31-20, 52% tickets, 55% money) to win it all. Therefore, they went an NFL-best 13-5-1 ATS on the year, which delighted public and sharp bettors.
The question now becomes whether or not the love from public and pro bettors will carry into the 2020 campaign, if and when it kicks off. Of course that depends on how much sportsbooks will set the odds in Kansas City’s favor, but judging by the fact that they’re returning most of their core and selected former LSU running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire with the 30th overall pick in the 1st Round of the 2020 Draft, there’s reason to believe that the team will pick up right where it left off, especially on the offensive side of the ball. While losing Bashaud Breeland and Kendall Fuller might negatively impact their pass defense, they addressed their secondary in the Draft by adding safety L’Jarius Sneed out of Louisiana Tech and cornerback Thakarius Keyes out of Tulane. Further, their 2nd Round pick Willie Gay Jr. out of Mississippi State could be a rookie starter at outside linebacker.
There’s no reason to assume that Mahomes and the Chiefs won’t perform at an elite level once again and it’ll be fascinating to see how public and sharp bettors attack their Week 1 matchup at home against the Texans. Per DraftKings, Kansas City opened as 10-point home favorites against Deshaun Watson and company. Luckily, you can track spread, moneyline and over/under betting data on BetQL as soon as NFL odds are released from their sportsbook partners. You can also find sportsbook promos at BetQL to bet some of these games for free.
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