Well, that was a disaster. Sometimes you’re the hammer, sometimes you’re the nail. Last weekend at UFC Tampa, I was the nail. With only a 12% chance of losing on all three of my recommended plays last Saturday, I spit in the eye of the odds and lost on all three of them.
After last weekend, I’m out of the black and into the red. So I’ll look to build the bankroll back up this weekend at UFC Boston (aka UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs Weidman), which is a rare Friday night event for the promotion. The main event is – you guessed it – Reyes against Weidman! That would be light heavyweights Dominick Reyes and former middleweight champion Chris Weidman, who will be making his first foray at 205 pounds. More on that matchup in a bit (foreshadowing).
The co-main is a fight we saw just a few weeks ago – Yair Rodriguez vs Jeremy Stephens. Their first fight infamously ended in 15 seconds after Stephens was unable to continue after an accidental eye poke. This has caused quite a bit of bad blood between the two combatants, which should add some fuel to a fight that should be fire anyhow. This early candidate for fight of the night is currently a pick ’em (-115 for both fighters).
Other than the top two fights, and a few choice cuts on the undercard, this is a pretty weak fight lineup for an event on ESPN (ESPN2 to be precise). Doesn’t mean we can’t win any money though, does it?!
Dominick Reyes (-153) vs Chris Weidman
I’m placing this bet on the basis (illusion?) that Chris Weidman is shot as a fighter. Knocked out in four of his last five fights, 35 years old and four years past his championship glory, Long Island’s finest appears to have his best days in his rearview. This also is his first fight at 205 pounds, which theoretically could help his chin due to the lack of an extreme weight cut, but once a fighter’s chin is shot, it normally is gone for good. Not to mention that Dominick Reyes is extremely good – undefeated in 11 fights, with six knockouts, and a very active striker, more than doubling up his opponent’s output on average.
Manny Bermudez (-140) vs Charles Rosa
This is the second time I’ve recommended a play on Manny Bermudez in this space, and while that didn’t work out too well last time (he lost to Casey Kenney at UFC 241 in August), I’m still confident in ‘The Bermudez Triangle’. He should have quite a few advantages in this weekend’s matchup against the hometown boy, ‘Boston Strong’ Charles Rosa. To start, Bermudez is eight years his junior and has two inches more reach. Rosa has also been on the shelf for two and a half years due to injury, and hasn’t won a fight since January of 2016. While submission wizard Bermudez might have trouble tapping out Rosa, who has a BJJ black belt under legend Ricardo Liborio, he should be able to put enough of a beating on him to win via decision.
Overall Results for This Column
Earnings (based on $100 bet per): (-$61.19)
Return on Investment: N/A