So far in 2019, underdogs have ruled the day on Thursday Night Football. Five covers in a row by dogs is impressive enough, but there have also been five consecutive straight-up wins to boot. Naturally, that streak will come to an end.
It could happen as soon as this week when the New England Patriots welcome the New York Giants to town. The hosts are huge favorites, but there’s still plenty of intrigue from a handicapping perspective. Here’s a look at the most intriguing Prop Best for Thursday Night Football.
New England Patriots 1-13/Over 40.5 +650
New England Patriots 1-13/Under 40.5 +310
New England Patriots 14+/Over 40.5 +188
New England Patriots 14+/Under 40.5 +205
New York Giants 1-13/Over 40.5 +2000
New York Giants 1-13/Under 40.5 +1200
New York Giants 14+/Over 40.5 +8000
New York Giants 14+/Under 40.5 +6600
For standalone NFL games, props involving the spread and total can enhance the enjoyment. That’s especially true when we come across a proverbial mismatch on paper. At full strength, the Giants are outmatched by the defending Super Bowl champs.
Go here for a complete list of free ATS NFL PICKS.
Heading into the game, the offensive side of the ball for New York has been replaced by an infirmary unit. That’s bad news for the visitors, especially when you consider that Bill Belichick seems to pride himself on making life miserable for opposing inexperienced signal callers.
It could be a long night for Daniel Jones and company. However, weird things happen on TNF. That doesn’t mean an outright upset is in play, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility for the Giants to keep it close and/or for the Patriots to call the dogs off after they’ve had their fun.
The Pick: New England Patriots 1-13/Under 40.5 +310
To Score 2+ Touchdowns
Sony Michel +221
Julian Edelman +400
Josh Gordon +400
James White +450
Rex Burkhead +900
Philip Dorsett +900
Jakobi Meyers +1600
Golden Tate +1600
Jonathan Hiliman +1600
Field +2000 to +5000
For further perspective on how depleted the Giants are on offense, consider that their top two scoring options for this game have the same odds as Jakobi Meyers, a player who has six targets and four receptions on the year.
Finding the end zone is going to be a challenge for the Giants against the stout Patriots defense, so expecting Golden Tate or Jonathan Hiliman to do it twice is quite the reach.
One member of the Patriots could have a banner day against a New York squad which has had problems on defense. The New England receiving corps is banged up, so seeing the short passing game featured with a tried and true asset would be less than stunning.
The Pick: James White +450
Outcome Of First Drive
Field Goal Attempted +320
We’ll get a good sense of how this game is going to go shortly after kickoff. If the Giants get the ball and it’s three-and-out city, they could be in for a long night. The same applies if the Patriots receive the opening kickoff and proceed to march down the field.
New York needs to take an aggressive approach in an attempt to rattle New England as soon as they have the ball. As for the Patriots, they can quickly crush any sense of optimism with either a lengthy scoring drive or a quick-strike TD.
In both of the above scenarios, finding paydirt is the end result of the opening drive of the game.
The Pick: Touchdown +380
A Take On The Game Itself
The Giants are depleted on the offensive side of the ball. Even if they weren’t, it’s a herculean task for a lesser team to head to Foxboro and pull out the upset. However, this one can still be interesting from a handicapping perspective if the spread continues to climb.
Since opening at Patriots -14, it has climbed all the way up to -17 as of this writing. It could rise even higher by kickoff. Another half a point would make the Giants an attractive risk opportunity. New England -17 is a reasonable ask, but lean towards New York for spreads greater than that.