This week’s Thursday Night Football matchup may be the most intriguing of the young season to date. The Green Bay Packers are looking like contenders as they welcome a struggling Philadelphia Eagles squad to town.
There are numerous storylines to follow for the game itself, as well as plenty of intriguing prop bet opportunities. Here are our favorites from the latter category.
Away Team Total Points
0-10 Points +360
11-20 Points +134
21-30 Points +182
31-40 Points +580
41-50 Points +2200
The Pick: Philadelphia Eagles 11-20 Points
Throughout the offseason, there were a countless number of attempts to make a story out of the dynamic between new Packers head coach Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers. All the while, the real story in Green Bay received scant attention.
This club was uncharacteristically active in the offseason, and they had a clear cut agenda at hand: to bolster the defense. Let’s just say that the plan has worked out well thus far. Through three games, the Packers have allowed a total of 35 points.
That’s good enough for 2nd in the NFL, behind the 17 allowed by the New England Patriots. The Eagles seem out of sorts through three weeks. Carson Wentz may or may not be a franchise signal caller, but the offense doesn’t look great either way.
Heading to Green Bay to face a tough defense is not something that will inspire a quick fix. The Packers have yet to allow a team to score more than 16 points off of them. It’s tough to see Philadelphia bucking that trend.
First Touchdown Scorer
Aaron Jones +700
Davante Adams +700
Zach Ertz +900
Marquez Valdes-Scantling +1100
Jamaal Williams +1200
Alshon Jeffery +1300
Miles Sanders +1300
Nelson Agholor +1300
Field +1400 to +9000
The Pick: Davante Adams +700
Critics of the Packers are placing a caveat on the team’s strong start to the year. While it’s true that the offense hasn’t been lights out through three games, that’s also partially because it hasn’t had to be.
In Week 1, the team got tangled in a defensive slugfest with the Chicago Bears. The following week, the Packers dropped 21 points before the visiting Minnesota Vikings knew what hit them. On Sunday, the team accumulated 312 yards of total offense and posted 27 points.
Rodgers is not shooting the lights out with his play, but this is a team that just so happens to be striving for more balance on offense. For reference, consider that the team has found the end zone a total of seven times: four times through the air, and three times on the ground.
As time moves along, this offense is going to further click in LaFleur’s system. Rodgers can still put up a boatload of points as needed. To further drive that point home, perhaps seeing him hit Davante Adams for the first score of the game on Thursday night will help.
Total Touchdown Bands
0-1 TDs +1800
2-3 TDs +320
4-5 TDs +162
6-7 TDs +240
8+ TDs +450
The Pick: 2-3 TDs +320
As of this writing, the total checks in at 46 points with the Packers installed as 4-point favorites. Based on that, the baseline score for this game is a 25-21 Packers victory. As mentioned, the Packers have scored a total of 7 TDs through three games, which equals an average of 2.33 per contest.
The Eagles have hit paydirt nine times – six through the air and three on the ground – for an average of 3 TDs per game. Defensively, the Packers have allowed a total of 4 TDs (one pass and three rush) while the Eagles have allowed 8 (seven air and one ground).
If we take all of that information together, we can determine that the Eagles might have a little trouble in the Lambeau Leap department. As for the Packers, we’re liking our call of an Adams first TD of the game even more.
This has the makings of a low-scoring affair in which the Packers do enough on offense and clamp down on defense. If that script sounds familiar, that’s because it’s exactly how their last two games have played out. Two TDs for the Packers and one for the Eagles sounds about right.
One other note: the high water mark for scoring on Thursday Night Football this season is 34 points. That happened back in Week 2 when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers upset the Carolina Panthers by a score of 20-14.
Will There Be A Defensive Touchdown?
The Pick: Yes +250
Neither of these teams have scored a defensive touchdown as of yet this season. That streak ends on Thursday night. Through three games, the Eagles have a turnover margin of -2 with five giveaways. For the Packers, it’s a +6 with eight takeaways.
The Philadelphia offense has put up 20 or more points in each of its three games, but it still seems out of whack. Part of that is due to injuries at wideout, but the other glaring factor is a backfield which is collectively averaging 3.6 yards per carry.
In addition, Carson Wentz’s completion percentage has been dipping each week. For the Week 1 come from behind win over the Washington Redskins, he hit 71.8 percent of his passes. The following week, it dropped to 58.1 with two picks in a loss to the Falcons. On Sunday, he was 19 of 36 versus the Detroit Lions, which translated into a 52.8 completion percentage.
He has also been sacked three times in each of his last two outings. The Packers are playing lights out defense. A pick-six or fumble recovery for a score would be less than stunning.
A Take On The Game Itself
Green Bay is heading one way, while Philadelphia is having itself a moment. The Eagles are talented enough to turn it around before too long, but this isn’t the spot for that to happen. Packers win and cover.