The money line was a near coin flip, with the Broncos at -105 and the Chiefs at -115 when the guys taped on October 28, and both of them still landed on Denver. Chiefs vs Broncos kicks off Sunday, November 1 at 4:25 PM ET in Denver, CO, and Ryan Kramer and Sean Green each played the Broncos +1 on the NFL Picks Week 8 episode.
Chiefs vs Broncos Odds
The Chiefs were 1-point favorites with a total of 40.5 when the guys taped on October 28. That puts Denver at home as a short underdog. The guys pointed out that Kansas City laid 2.5 when these teams played in week one.
Our Picks
- Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric): Broncos +1
- Sean Green (@SeanTGreen): Broncos +1
The segment opened on the number. If you give each team 2.5 for home field, a 1-point Chiefs line means a swing of about 3.5 from week one, and the guys thought that was too big. The one reason they could find for it was the Chiefs having the same success on the ground against Denver, which has struggled against teams that can run.
The Chiefs got a long look too. The guys noted Mahomes has gone 15 and 14 against the spread off a loss, which is nothing special. They also talked through the Chiefs’ offensive line and a strange week of off-field noise around the team, and none of it made them want Kansas City at this price.
Then came the Denver case. The guys noted Sean Payton is 11 and 6 against the spread in same-season revenge games, and that Payton was not calling the plays in week one. They had Bo Nix running for 62 yards against the Cardinals as a sign he is moving freely again, and they said that matters against this Chiefs team. The guys expected Pat Surtain back and called him the biggest piece of that defense.
Seattle also gave them a blueprint. They said the Chiefs pass catchers could not get separation in that game, that pressure and a bottled-up run game did the damage, and that other teams can copy it. Denver’s defense has looked strong at home, and one of the guys thought the Broncos could win outright.
Hear the full breakdown on the NFL Picks Week 8 episode, or listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Watch every game on YouTube, and download the SGPN app at sg.pn/links. See all our NFL Picks.
