NFL Picks Week 8 (Ep. 2715)

NFL Picks Week 8 Recap

Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) break down the full NFL picks Week 8 slate, from the Panthers close your eyes special on Thursday night to Bears at Seahawks on Monday. Sean Green locks Carolina plus 3.5, and Ryan Kramer already has a Bucs ticket in his pocket.

Brewers Champagne And A Colts Fire Sale

The guys open by toasting the Brewers on their World Series win, then get to the real news of the week, which is a fire sale in Indianapolis. The Colts sent Quenton Nelson to Seattle and DeForest Buckner back to San Francisco, and Sean Green has no patience for a Hall of Fame guard going out the door for a third and a fifth. Ryan Kramer says Ballard got one season too many. Josh Downs wants out now too, and Indy doesn’t even own its first-round pick. So who is the elite team in this league? Nobody, really. The only undefeated team left is Minnesota, and the Vikings have nine offensive touchdowns.

The Colts are not officially dead, sitting two and a half games behind Jacksonville, but they head to a stadium that has been a house of horrors for them. Sean pulls up the old pick sheet to prove it. In Week 18 of the 2021 season the Jags beat Carson Wentz and the Colts 26-11 as 15-point home dogs, knocking Indy out of the playoffs, and Sean had Jacksonville on the money line at 7-1. That game is the whole flow chart in one result. Never take the Colts in Jacksonville, even when the number says you should, and especially when the building is in chaos.

Panthers Plus The Hook On Thursday Night

Thursday night starts with Carolina at Green Bay, Packers laying 3.5 with a 47 total and the Panthers +170 on the money line. Carolina got buried by the Bucs last week and missed the spread by more than 21 points, which makes the Panthers a close your eyes special, a rare Thursday version of it. Kramer admits it doesn’t feel as gross as it should. He goes to church with it anyway. Sean goes further and smashes it, because the Panthers are on a 13-0 ATS run off a loss and Green Bay is down to its third-string center. Matthew Golden also hasn’t practiced this week and looks like he’s out.

Sean’s case leans on the trenches, since the trench report actually gives Carolina the edge here. Jordan Love has been throwing it well, but his receivers keep failing to catch the ball, and Sean sees this landing as a field goal game rather than a Packers blowout. Kramer adds that the Bucs defense is simply playing better than people think, so last week’s score says more about Tampa than about Carolina. He also refuses to buy Green Bay as the eighth-best defense in the league per DVOA. Then Sean puts his money where his mouth is and makes Panthers +3.5 his first lock of the week.

NFL Picks Week 8 Early Window: Vikings, Raiders And Cardinals

The undefeated Vikings are dogs in Detroit, with the Lions laying 3.5 at -180, Minnesota +155 and a 46.5 total. The money is lopsided, because 63% of the tickets and 91% of the money on Detroit pushed this from 3 to 3.5. Kramer lays it. He has some worry about Jared Goff against Brian Flores, but he trusts the Lions run game and would sooner play the under than back Kyler Murray. Sean takes the division dog without blinking. Kyler is 22-7-2 ATS as a road dog since 2019, the Vikings’ last two covers in the series came last season after Ben Johnson left Detroit, and Sean will take Flores in the coaching matchup any day.

Both guys land on the Raiders +1.5 against the Jets, a public road dog at +100 with the Jets -120 and a 46 total. Las Vegas has dropped four straight, so this is not a love letter to the Raiders. It’s a fade of Aaron Glenn, who is 6-10-1 ATS off a loss as Jets head coach and is, in Sean’s words, the worst coach in the league right now on clock management. The Jets are also 14-24-1 as a favorite. Greg Dulcich went 5 for 86 against this defense last week, and now Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer get a crack at it. Kramer’s tiebreaker is simple: Geno against a pass rush, give me the dog.

Dallas moved to a full touchdown against Arizona, seven at Circa with a 54.5 total and the Cardinals +250. Kramer’s model couldn’t find a way to take the Cowboys at that number, and Sean is all over Arizona +7. Jacoby Brissett ranks third in completion percentage over expected while the Dallas defense allows the fourth most. Brissett and the Cardinals also went into Dallas last year and won 27-17. Trey McBride should feast on this defense too. And Sean has not forgotten the Cowboys dumping Gatorade after beating his Eagles, which sets up exactly the kind of big home favorite spot Dallas tends to fumble away.

Bucs Chalk And The Ravens Poll

Kramer already has Tampa Bay -2.5 in his pocket against Atlanta, with the Bucs at -140, the Falcons +120 and a 44.5 total, and he predicts the number gets to three. The splits back him up, because 60% of the tickets are on the Falcons while 68% of the dollars sit on the Bucs. His case is the Tampa defense and a backfield of Sean Tucker, Kenny Gainwell and Bucky Irving that lets Baker Mayfield coast. Sean has real worries, including Kyle Pitts and his three touchdowns against Todd Bowles last year, plus the Falcons winning five of the last seven meetings. But he likes Michael Penix against Bowles and ends up on the Bucs -2.5 too.

Ravens at Bills turned into a live debate over the close your eyes special. The pick line from the Bengals game was a placeholder before anyone knew Lamar Jackson’s status, and once the real line came out Baltimore didn’t miss it by 21. Sean ran a YouTube poll that opened at 62% yes and slid to 52%. Both guys take the Ravens +3 anyway, and neither one loves it. Sean likes the Bills off the bye, where Josh Allen is 8-0 straight up and 5-2-1 ATS. Derrick Henry is averaging 3.9 yards per carry, and Lamar is nursing a high ankle sprain. So it’s a close your eyes special in the purest sense: you hold your nose and click it.

The Lamar question also hangs over the whole number. Kramer figures three is roughly the right price with Jackson, but if Snoop Huntley starts instead, this line runs to seven or seven and a half at least. That uncertainty is exactly why Sean keeps Baltimore off his lock list, because he doesn’t want to be holding the Ravens +3 and then watch Lamar get ruled out on Friday. Kramer adds that in neutral game states the Bills grade out as a league-worst run defense, which is the best argument for the dog. He’s waiting on more information before he bets it, unlike the Bucs.

Laying Double Digits In Jacksonville, Fading It In Cincinnati

The Colts trades moved Jacksonville from around seven or seven and a half to a full 10, with the Jags at -485, Indy +385 and a 46.5 total. Sean wonders whether two players should be worth two and a half points in a division game. Then he lands on the Jags anyway, and so does Kramer. Jacksonville is off a bye and plays a Colts secondary that is banged up. Kramer sees Trevor Lawrence working Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington over the middle, with Buckner gone from the pass rush and Tyler Warren nursing a groin. Indy ranks 30th in ball security, the Jags rank fourth in takeaways, and Sean also teases Jacksonville down to -4.

Cincinnati at -10.5 against Tennessee is where they split. The Bengals are -600, the Titans +455 and the total is 46.5. Sean calls it the sandwich spot of the week, because Cincinnati comes off a big road win over a division rival and has an international game against the Falcons on deck. Joe Burrow is also 3-7 ATS as a favorite of more than seven. So Sean takes the Titans +10.5 and later makes them his money line dog at +455. Kramer agrees with the sandwich angle and lays the points anyway, betting that Brian Daboll is fed up with Cam Ward’s passing and that a defensive touchdown is in play.

Steelers Lock Up The Browns At Home

Pittsburgh lays 3.5 against Cleveland at -195, with the Browns +170 and a 39.5 total, and this is the easiest agreement of the night. Both guys lock it. The Steelers are 22-1 straight up and 16-7 ATS at home against the Browns, and Kramer points out the last regular-season home game they failed to cover in this series was Week 17 of 2017, when they won by four as five-point favorites. Cleveland is on a back-to-back road spot after a win. Jaylen Warren has the Pittsburgh run game humming, and Sean remembers what Tony Pollard did to this Browns defense last week. If the Steelers can run on you, you’re in trouble.

Sean had the Browns last week against the Titans and watched them let Tennessee hang around, so he isn’t touching Deshaun Watson again. Watson ranks 24th out of 38 quarterbacks in EPA per play this season but first in the final two minutes, which earns him the nickname two-minute man. The one thing giving Kramer pause is the trip back from Europe. Sean doesn’t put much weight on that fade, though, because a lot of the recent examples came against rested teams, and Cleveland spent last week on the road. Kramer also notes Steelers players said the flight home was no concern. That leaves Steelers -3.5 on both lock sheets.

Late Window: Chargers, Broncos And Dolphins

The Rams lay 6.5 against the Chargers at -270, with the Bolts +230 and a 45 total, and both guys take the points. The Chargers are 0-6 coming out of a bye, and Sean has a trend going back to 1989: winless teams at 0-5 or worse are 20-6 ATS following a bye. Kramer adds his own, because the Chargers are 8-3 ATS since 2000 after a six-game losing streak. The Rams look like a zigzag team to Sean, and Matthew Stafford doesn’t sound fired up for the crosstown game either. “It’s a big town to cross,” he said. It won’t feel good to click the Chargers, but both of them do it.

The Broncos are home dogs at +1 against the Chiefs, -105 on the money line, with Kansas City -115 and a 40.5 total. Kansas City laid 2.5 in the Week 1 meeting, and Kramer thinks that adjustment is simply too much. Sean has numbers behind it too. Patrick Mahomes is only 15-14 ATS off a loss, while Sean Payton is 11-6 ATS in same-season revenge games. Bo Nix also ran for 62 yards last week, and Sean reads that as Nix getting his legs back mentally. Pat Surtain looks likely to return. Both guys lock Denver +1, and Sean thinks the Broncos win this outright.

Patriots at Dolphins is the last game of the window, with Miami +275 and a 43.5 total. Kramer is on New England. He expects Drake Maye to throw the deep ball early and often, and the Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last five after a loss, so to Kramer a 17-7 final is plenty. Sean can’t quit the house of horrors in Miami. The Dolphins have won eight of the last 11 meetings, and he takes Miami plus seven because this team has a little fight in it. Kramer also leaves New England -1 in his teaser and tells Sean to enjoy his Dolphins.

A $730 Underdog Entry

The guys build an Underdog entry live, and it’s a three-leg card with real upside. Kramer starts with a Bengals fade at tight end and takes Gunnar Helm over 19.5 receiving yards. Sean goes lower on A.J. Brown at 4.5 receptions, because Brown is dealing with knee and ankle injuries and Sean would rather fade the catches than the yards in case he hits one deep ball. Then they circle back to the Cardinals and take Michael Wilson higher on a 21.5-yard longest reception, since both think he’s due for a big one. That’s a 7.3x multiplier, so a $100 entry pays $730.

Prime Time: Eagles Plus Six And Bears Plus Three

Sunday night has Washington laying six against the Eagles at -260, Philadelphia +220 and a 40 total. The line opened at four and has gone one way. Back in the summer Washington was getting 2.5 in this game, which Kramer calls an eight-and-a-half point swing. He lays the six. Saquon Barkley’s soft tissue injury won’t heal in four days, and after last week’s gutless defensive effort he expects a Dan Quinn master class. Sean takes his Eagles +6, because Jayden Daniels is 0-7-1 over his last eight and the Commanders have no Terry McLaurin. Kramer also teases Washington down to a pick, insisting they don’t lose to Tanner McKee.

Monday night closes the slate with Chicago +3 at Seattle, the Seahawks at -170, the Bears +150 and a 46.5 total. Both guys take the points. Sean likes Ben Johnson as a dog with extra time to prepare, and he thinks the Bears defense is underrated, ranking seventh in success rate, fourth in pressure rate and third in three-and-outs. The biggest reason, though, is Seattle left tackle Charles Cross and his high ankle sprain. Kramer would rather back the offensive mind with Caleb Williams than Sam Darnold, who looks a lot like old Sam Darnold lately. He also makes the Bears his money line dog.

Locks, Dogs, Teasers And The Circa Million Card

Kramer goes first. His locks are the Bucs -2.5, the Broncos +1 and the Steelers -3.5, and he names Chicago his money line dog with the Chargers as the consolation choice. His teaser takes New England to -1, the Raiders up to +7.5 and the Commanders to a pick. Sean locks the Panthers +3.5, the Steelers -3.5 and the Broncos +1, and he nearly got cute with Arizona +7. Then he goes big with the Titans on the money line at +455, betting the Bengals blow another one of these. His teaser takes Minnesota to +9.5, the Bears to +9 and the Jags down to -4.

After a 4-1 week, the Circa Million card starts with the two locks they share, Pittsburgh -3.5 and Denver +1. Sean doesn’t feel as strongly about Tampa as Kramer does, but he’s fine adding the Bucs -2.5. Carolina +3.5 goes on because they played Thursday last week and it cashed, and the Bears +3 round out the five. So the card reads Steelers, Broncos, Bucs, Panthers and Bears, with the Thursday leg sweated first. Kramer says all of it is going in his pocket, and he might combo it up too.

NFL Week 8 Odds

Podcast Chapters

0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
0:46 Brewers World Series Win & Colts Fire Sale
12:32 Carolina vs. Green Bay Picks
18:50 Minnesota vs. Detroit Picks
26:28 Raiders vs. Jets Picks
34:56 Cardinals vs. Cowboys Picks
40:27 Falcons vs. Bucs Picks
47:54 Ravens vs. Bills Picks
57:57 Colts vs. Jags Picks
1:04:19 Titans vs. Bengals Picks
1:07:54 Browns vs. Steelers Picks
1:13:07 Chargers vs. Rams Picks
1:18:50 Chiefs vs. Broncos Picks
1:25:20 Patriots vs. Dolphins Picks
1:31:11 Underdog Entry: A.J. Brown, Gunnar Helm & Michael Wilson
1:34:04 Eagles vs. Commanders Picks
1:41:08 Bears vs. Seahawks Picks
1:46:13 Locks, Dog & Tease and the Circa Million Card
1:54:51 Colby Dant, College Experience & Prop Show
1:57:38 Thank You for Participating in the Sports Gambling Podcast