Are you looking for best plays for the NCAA men’s basketball championship? You can make plays at sports books, but you can also look to add to your championship portfolio at prediction markets like Kalshi. Kalshi is the first Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-regulated exchange that allows users to trade on the outcome of real-world events. You can get action on the world economy, weather, and politics. It operates like a stock exchange for event contracts with a simple yes/no system. Kalshi has a real-time market for NCAA championship predictions, and we’ve got a few plays that you need to know about. Let’s get into it.
However, if you are looking for a sportsbook to place bets on our college basketball picks, you should check out MyBookie.ag for your next play.
NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament Futures Market Best Bets From Kalshi
March Madness Round of 64 Qualifiers: Best Bet
Play: Vermont: Yes – $0.60
For context, a $100 ‘yes’ bet for Vermont to make the Round of 64 in the NCAA tournament would pay $167.
Vermont is tied at the top of the America East conference at 6-2. The Catamounts haven’t torn through the conference as they have in years past, but they are the strongest team in the league on paper. They have eight games left in conference play, and they’re all winnable.
There’s a solid chance that Vermont ends up with a 14-2 record in the America East. That would make Vermont the top seed in the America East conference tournament. The top seed doesn’t get a bye game, but they do get to face the eighth-place team in the conference. At this point, it would likely be Bryant or Albany. Bryant won the conference last year, but turned over their roster and looks like a mess. Albany isn’t much better. Vermont would win against either.
They would likely face NJIT as the three-seed in the second round. NJIT just won at Vermont, but it’s unlikely that NJIT will repeat its success in a tournament format. From there, it’s on to the final. Presuming the Catamounts meet the two-seed, they would have to play UMBC. The Catamounts already have a win over UMBC this year.
This is a little chalky to play as a best bet, but Vermont missed the NCAA tournament last year. They’re considered the wagon of the America East conference, and they’ll be hungry to dance again in March. Lock up Vermont to make the tournament and add a bankroll builder to your Kalshi portfolio.
March Madness Final Four Qualifiers: Best Bet
Play: Arizona: Yes – $0.53
For context, a $100 bet on Arizona to make the Final Four would pay $189.
Arizona is a top-five team in the country. They’re possibly the best. Depending on the draw they get in the tournament, they should make it through the first two weekends without too much difficulty. This is another chalky play, but building your bankroll will allow you to take risks elsewhere.
Historically, teams that make the Final Four need to have a top-20 offense and a top-20 defense in KenPom rankings. Arizona is one of six teams that currently ticks both boxes. The Wildcats also have size, athleticism, and experience at the guard positions. They look like a team that’s built to succeed in March, and, at near even money, they’re a solid bet to make it to the Final Four this year.
Men’s College Basketball Champion: Best Bet
Play: Michigan: Yes – $0.17
For context, a $100 bet on Michigan to win the national championship would pay $589.
If Arizona chokes, like Arizona is known to choke, this is solid value on a Michigan team that will be a matchup nightmare for over 90% of the teams in the tournament. You can’t coach size, and few teams can match the bigs that Michigan has on its roster. Their front court might be the best in the nation.
The only concern here is the guard play. Michigan built a team from the inside out and lacks a truly elite guard that most national champions have. They have capable, gritty Big Ten guards, but don’t have the backcourt that we typically see in true contenders. Eliot Cadeau is a square peg in a round hole. He’s Best with the ball in his hands, and Michigan is at its best when the ball is out of his hands. Roddy Gayle is unspectacular. Nimari Burnett is more of a ‘three & D’ player than a ball handler. L.J. Cason has stepped up, but is still only a sophomore.
Michigan will cruise through the first weekend, and there’s a solid chance that they make it through the second weekend. What happens after that is going to depend on the matchups they draw. If undersized teams make it through, Michigan will continue to wreck shop and could win the national title. Getting them now feels like a ‘Buy High’, but they could go even higher by the time March rolls around. Lock up Michigan at this price because if Arizona stumbles once or twice, their odds will continue to move upwards.
The College Basketball Experience
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