We get our second UFC pay-per-view of the month this Saturday, as UFC 321 goes down at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, UAE. Note the early start time: 10:00 am EST for the prelims, 2:00 pm EST for the main card. No sleeping in. Here are your UFC 321 predictions & best bets to make Saturday profitable.
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UFC 321 Predictions & Best Bets
Tom Aspinall (-330) vs Ciryl Gane
Now that Ciryl Gane has mercifully exited the scene (sorta), Tom Aspinall gets to make the first defense of his undisputed UFC Heavyweight Championship. And Saturday should be the first of several successful defenses of his title.
Ciryl Gane has shown a clear weakness in grappling, a realm in which Aspinall happens to excel. On the feet, as well, I like the Brit’s powerful striking more than the Frenchman’s stick-and-move style. I don’t see any paths to victory for Gane.
Mackenzie Dern (-150) vs Virna Jandiroba
We’re guaranteed to crown a new UFC champion at UFC 321, as the vacant UFC Women’s Strawweight Championship is on the line in the co-main event, as American-Brazilian Mackenzie Dern faces Brazilian Virna Jandiroba. This fight is a rematch from UFC 256 (December 2020), which Dern won by unanimous decision.
And while it can be argued that Jandiroba has improved more than Dern since the first fight, I still see Dern winning the rematch. Despite not getting her grappling going in the first meeting, she outstruck Jandiroba then, and she can do the same now.
Umar Nurmagomedov (-588) vs Mario Bautista
‘Cousin’ Umar Nurmagomedov looks to bounce back from his first career loss, a UFC Bantamweight Championship fight against Merab Dvalishvili, by taking on fellow grappler Mario Bautista.
Bautista has been on a hot run, winning eight straight fights and 10 of his last 11 contests. But this is a bad matchup – he needs to grapple to win, and he can’t outgrapple Nurmagomedov.
Mateusz Rebecki (+120) vs L’udovit Klein
I’ll finish things off with a couple of live dogs. First, I’ll take Polish lightweight Mateusz Rebecki to beat his Slovakian counterpart, L’udovit Klein. This should be a slugfest and a Fight of the Night contender.
While Klein is probably a better striker than Rebecki (but ‘Rebeasti’ is down to slang and bang), on the mat, I like the Polish fighter. I think he’s worthy of a roll of the dice for plus money.
Louie Sutherland (+336) vs Valter Walker
Finally, I’ll definitely take a stab at a heavyweight as a +336 dog. That would be Scottish newcomer Louie Sutherland, facing submission expert Valter Walker on Saturday morning/afternoon.
Sutherland has strong enough grappling to avoid getting heel hooked by Walker, which is how the Brazilian has won his last three fights. And Sutherland can really crack on the feet, so a knockout is in play – if you want an even bigger payout, take Sutherland’s knockout prop play.
Check out the MMA Gambling Podcast if you’d like even more UFC 321 picks. The guys are dropping five episodes a week to make you the smartest guy at the bar.
