It’s already Week 5 of the NFL! It seems like it goes faster each year. The San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams kicked it off Thursday night. Don’t forget we have football overseas bright and early again this week. Kickoff is set for 9:30 AM ET, 6:30 AM PT. The Minnesota Vikings are going from Ireland to London, England. They’ll take on the Cleveland Browns, who will turn to the rookie Dillon Gabriel for his first career start. Let’s dive in and pick our confidence levels for each team to win outright as you fill out your confidence pool picks.
This is also the first week of bye weeks for a few teams. The Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, and Pittsburgh Steelers all get the very early bye week as they sit at home and recoup before a grueling 13-week run to end the season. It’s another very tough week to pick games. After the London game, it leaves us six games in the 1:00 PM window, headlined by the Broncos at Eagles. Three games fill the afternoon window, and the Patriots go to Buffalo for Sunday Night Football. The Jacksonville Jaguars host the Kansas City Chiefs to wrap up the weekend on Monday Night.
Week 5 NFL Confidence Picks
High Confidence Picks
1. Cardinals Over Titans
2. Lions Over Bengals
3. Bills Over Patriots
4. Colts Over Raiders
The Cardinals beat bad teams. It’s as simple as that. Even as massive underdogs most weeks the Titans are 3-18 against the spread under Brian Callahan. They just aren’t a good team. Cam Ward has struggled, and it’s mostly because he has no supporting cast. Arizona has looked good so far this year and should roll in this one. If you’ve got Arizona in your survivor, they are a great play this week.
The Detroit Lions have looked like one of the best teams in football after losing to the Packers in Week 1. The Bengals lost Joe Burrow, and just haven’t been the same since. It’s the biggest spread of the weekend for a reason; this should be another easy Lions win. Another great survivor play.
Sunday Night Football brings us an AFC East matchup that may turn into an AFC East beatdown. I’m a Patriots fan, but I don’t think we’ve got a chance in this game. Buffalo is coming off a bad game against the Saints, wearing their white out jerseys, and playing in primetime at home. Bills roll.
Daniel Jones has been the man this year, Geno Smith not so much. This Colts team is well-rounded, playing great on offense as well as defense. Their only loss is a close one to a tough Rams team. The Raiders just haven’t looked the part outside of that Patriots win in Week 1.
Confident Picks
5. Eagles Over Broncos
6. Chargers Over Commanders
7. Ravens Over Texans
8. Panthers Over Dolphins
The Philadelphia Eagles haven’t lost since December 22nd, in a game Jalen Hurts was injured. Their last loss before that, over a year ago, to the Buccaneers on September 29th. This is a great football team that just gets the job done week after week. No reason to fade them at home.
The Los Angeles Chargers dropped one on the road in a bad spot last week against the Giants in Jaxson Dart’s first start. Outside of that game, they’ve looked like a Super Bowl-contending team, and that should pick right back up this week against a beat-up Commanders team.
Baltimore is likely starting Cooper Rush at quarterback this week. That doesn’t bother me one bit. This team isn’t as bad as their 1-3 record says they are. The Texans, however, are. They’ve looked atrocious through four games, and I’ve lost all faith in the team. Give me Rush and King Henry in this game.
The Carolina Panthers got it handed to them last week. But they’ve been a different team on the road this year than at home. Miami is coming off its first win, and they also aren’t a good team. I’ll take the home team in this battle of uglies.
Toss-Ups
9. Buccaneers Over Seahawks
10. Vikings Over Browns
11. Saints Over Giants
12. Jets Over Cowboys
13. Jaguars Over Chiefs
Tampa is the underdog in Seattle, and the Seahawks’ defense has been tough this year. But it’s hard to pick against Baker Mayfield. The Buccaneers are injured, but that didn’t slow down the 49ers on Thursday night, and I think Tampa can go into the 12th man and pull this off.
This Vikings-Browns game should be an easy one, but I don’t think it is. We saw the first game bump Jaxson Dart brought last week. Could Dillon Gabriel bring that this week and be carried by a strong defense? Possibly. I think Minnesota is the better team, and they are adjusted to the overseas schedule, but don’t be shocked if this is a close one.
Everyone and their brother is on the Giants to beat the Saints this week. I’ll take it. After the Nabers injury and their first big emotional win, it’s the perfect letdown spot. The Saints are a bad, bad team, but they’ve looked ok in some spots. I think they slay the Giants on Sunday.
Jets and Cowboys. Woof. Toss a coin for this game. The bosses at SGPN hate the Cowboys, so I’ll let that tip my scales. Off the heels of their big, exciting tie, Justin Fields runs all over them and comes out with the Jets’ first win.
The Chiefs don’t scream confidence right now, and I’m super high on the Jaguars. That’s why I’m putting this game last, because Kansas City should win this game, but I think it’ll be Jacksonville. Give me the upset as we call our shot here.
