The NFL season is quickly approaching, and it’s time to place your futures bets! The AFC has been dominated by a handful of the same teams for a couple of years now. The Chiefs continue to make the Super Bowl while the Bills and Ravens choke in the playoffs. Will history repeat itself? Let’s take a look at the AFC best bets for 2025!
2025 NFL AFC Best Bets
Division Winners
When it comes to best bets, the AFC seems too easy to me in division winners. Maybe I’m overly confident, however I think it’ll play out exactly as expected. There are three teams that are heavy favorites to win their division. They include the Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens.
The Chiefs have dominated their division for several years. The combination of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes has so far proven that they can’t be beat in this division, and I don’t see that changing this year. The Chargers and Broncos have made improvements, but I don’t see them overtaking the Chiefs yet. The Chiefs are -120 favorites, and it feels like a lock.
The Buffalo Bills have a clear path to winning their division. I’m not even sure who you’d consider their competition. The Dolphins don’t seem to be there yet, and Tua can’t be relied on. The Patriots have improved, but are still a young team under a new coaching staff and need some time. There’s a reason they’re -280 favorites.
In the AFC North, it’s been the Ravens division. The Bengals are a strong team. However, the Ravens have proven to be a better team. Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and a strong defense have led them to winning their division and should again. They’re currently -150 favorites.
The last AFC division is the AFC South. While there isn’t a minus-money favorite, the Texans are just slightly above even money at +110. With the Titans and Cam Ward starting a new regime, I don’t see them as a threat to the Texans. The Jaguars and Lawrence have been struggling the past couple of years, and I don’t think that’ll change. Who knows who will be starting at the quarterback position for the Colts.
The Texans feel like a lock, along with the Ravens, Chiefs, and Bills. If you parlay all these together, you could cash a +770 parlay. It may almost fall into the longshot, but it feels like an AFC best bet to me.
Win Totals
Looking at some of the AFC best bets, let’s turn our attention to some of my top win totals. We’ll start with the Denver Broncos. Bo Nix and company exceeded expectations last year in Bo’s rookie season debut. They won 10 games. However, I don’t think they’ll get to 10 this year as teams adjust to his play. Under 9.5 wins at -115 feels solid.
The Texans also won 10 games last season. They did this while the receiving corps faced several injuries, from Nico Collins to Tank Dell. They’ve added receivers, including Christian Kirk and two rookies out of Iowa State. The division contains the Colts, Jaguars, and Titans. When you play in a division with teams that are struggling like those teams, it should be easy to repeat your wins. Texans over 9.5 wins at +100 feels like a best bet.
The Raiders won four games last year. Since then, they’ve brought in new head coach Pete Carroll. He brought in his former quarterback, Geno Smith. They also made some defensive improvements and drafted Boise State standout Ashton Jeanty. Four wins to seven may seem like a tall task, but this Raiders team is feisty. I like them to go over 6.5 wins at -145.
I already mentioned the Patriots made a lot of changes and improvements this offseason. That includes bringing in head coach Mike Vrabel. However, it’s a tall task to go from four wins to nine. I think they’re being a little overvalued. Therefore, give me Patriots under 8.5 wins at +100.
Finally, let’s look at the Jets. They won five games last year in what seemed like a disaster of a year. I’m a Justin Fields believer. I think he’ll have this team playing better than they did last year. They have a really strong defense and playmakers like Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. Fields is also a playmaker. The Jets over 6.5 wins is a best bet and a lock.
AFC Best Prop Bets
For the AFC best bets, now let’s look at some options on Underdog Fantasy. Shedeur Sanders has a number of higher or lower 2.5 games started in the regular season. Higher seems like par for the course on a team that’s going to want to see what they have in their multitude of quarterbacks.
We all know Pete Carroll loves to run the ball, except for game-winning drives in the Super Bowl. I expect he’ll run the wheels off Ashton Jeanty in this very first year. His rushing touchdowns number is sitting at 8.5, and higher is a lock.
Lamar Jackson’s rushing ability hasn’t railed off much. As he gets older, they take fewer risks with him. However, he still runs the ball. His rushing yards are set at 749.5. He’s gone higher than this number in every season except for his first. That includes seasons where he’s only played 12 games. Smash the higher.
Joe Burrow and the Bengals had a disappointing year last year. The organization is a bit of a mess, with their top defensive player and top draft pick both holding out. Still, I think they will stay competitive this year. Joe Burrow, higher than 0.5 playoff games started, may be only .74x, but it makes a nice addition to any pick’em entry on Underdog Fantasy.
C.J. Stroud should also start a playoff game for the Texans, simply by winning their division. Higher is .81x, and I like adding it to my pick’em entry as well.
Finally, Justin Fields finds himself on a new team. In just 10 games played, seven started, he ran for five touchdowns. Fields’ rushing ability is his bread and butter. His number is only set at 5.5 this year, despite hitting five last year without a full season. Fields higher than 5.5 rushing touchdowns is a best bet in the AFC best bets.
If you want to get crazy, I mean, who doesn’t, you can put all these together in a pick’em entry for 20.97x your bet. That means $10 could get you $209.70.
Longshot Bets
You can’t have your NFL AFC best bets without throwing in a longshot bet. The longshot bet I like the most is a +2800 longshot picking the exact Super Bowl result. Some will call it a biased pick because I’m so big on the Bills this year. I’m not even a Bills fan. I just think the Bills are primed to make a deep run and get to the playoffs.
I also think the NFC is going to have a bit of a repeat from last year. The Eagles are a strong team. Yes, they lost some contributors on the defense. However, in the past couple of years, the individual contributors didn’t matter. The system works, and they continue to play at a high level.
Therefore, I think the Bills and the Eagles will face off in the 2026 Super Bowl. I also think the Bills finally get theirs, behind the MVP play of Josh Allen. The Buffalo Bills to beat the Philadelphia Eagles can be bet at +2800. Bet it now so you don’t regret missing out on it later on.