Two young franchise quarterbacks square off Sunday at Empower Field at Mile High Stadium in Denver. There’s a lot on the line in this matchup, Denver currently holds the final spot in the AFC playoffs and Indianapolis is the first team out. This is one of four games all with significant playoff implications that kicks off at 4:25 p.m. ET. It’ll air on CBS. Let’s jump in and take a look at this Colts-Broncos preview and predictions.
The Colts sit two games behind the Houston Texans in the AFC South and more importantly two games behind the Broncos in the Wild Card chase. A win over Denver this week would be huge, giving them the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Broncos if it came down to it. According to the NFL’s NextGen stats, a win gives the Colts a 55% chance at making the playoffs while a loss drops their chances to just 7%. The Colts are fresh and rested up coming off the late Week 14 bye.
The Broncos’ situation isn’t as dire, but with tough games against the Chargers, Bengals and Chiefs on the horizon a win against the Colts would be huge this week. The Dolphins and Bengals are lurking right behind the Colts if the Broncos slip up for that last spot in the AFC playoffs picture. Denver enters this game on a three-game win streak with wins over the Falcons, Raiders, and Browns in the last three weeks. A win puts them at an 89% chance to make the postseason, a loss drops them to 47%.
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos Preview and Predictions Video
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos Preview and Predictions
Bo Nix Over 16.5 Rushing Yards (-117)
This is a bet on whether Bo Nix decides to run this week or not. Because when Nix commits to running the ball, he almost always goes well over this number. Nix has six games this season he’s gone over this number, five times he’s had at least 35 yards.
The Colts have let up plenty of rush yards to rushing quarterbacks this season including Drake Maye in their last game who ran for 59 yards on them. Justin Fields, Josh Allen, and Malik Nabers all at least doubled this number. The Broncos need to show up and put away a tough team, look for Nix to scramble, and pick up at least 17 yards.
Denver Broncos -3.5 (-111)
No team has been better against the spread in 2024 than the Denver Broncos. They are 10-3 on the season, they’ve covered four games in a row and six of their last seven. They’ve been the favorite in six games, and are 6-0 ATS. Indianapolis is a solid 8-5 ATS on the season, but have struggled as of late going just 1-4 ATS in their last five games. I simply have more trust in Sean Payton and Bo Nix than I do in Shane Steichen and Anthony Richardson. Factor in the home-field advantage at Mile-High and it’s an easy Broncos for me.
