The 2024 College Football season is less than three weeks from kickoff. We’re entering uncharted waters for the 2024 season. This is the first year we get an expanded playoff, and with that, we get even more opportunities to build a season-long betting portfolio. But how can we bet on playoff scenarios that have never happened? Well, we’ll need to build a 2024 College Football Playoff prediction model.
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2024 College Football Playoff Prediction Model & Best Bets
What’s the methodology for our College Football Playoff Prediction Model?
First, let’s start with odds. Vegas knows. Vegas always knows. If the books list a team as a -650 favorite to make a 12-team playoff, they’re probably making a 12-team playoff. The good news is that there are several tools that can convert -650 to an 86.7% chance that an event will occur.
Next, we’ll need to know how many wins each team is predicted to get. In this case, Vegas also knows. If the books have a team at 8.5 wins with the under at plus odds that means the books are expecting nine wins. We’re using the books’ predictions for season win totals.
Next, how many wins does each team need to earn a playoff spot? Kelley Ford Ratings has worked out this number. We’ll compare the projected win total against the necessary wins total.
Finally, how many upsets or mulligans will a team get and still be able to get into the playoffs? Kelley Ford has Georgia getting three mulligans and still making the playoffs. However, the Florida Gators will need three upsets to be able to get a playoff spot.
For this aspect of the model, we’ll take the projected wins, add the mulligans and upsets needed, and then divide by the number of wins needed.
Then, we will take an average of the three percentages and use this to inform our model.
How did our College Football Playoff Prediction model perform?
Well, take a look for yourself.
The model has the Ohio State Buckeyes and Georgia Bulldogs as virtual locks. Can you imagine a scenario in which either of these teams misses the first 12-team college football playoff, even if they both fail to win their conference? So far, we’re tracking pretty well.
Next up, our model has LSU and Alabama getting in. This tracks with the Kelley Ford projections. The model is doing pretty well, and we’re four teams deep.
The next two teams are Ole Miss and Oregon. Both of these teams are also in the 2024 College Football Playoff in the Kelley Ford model. Nothing weird yet from our model.
Notre Dame and Florida State are next in our model. FSU is one of the top teams in the Kelley model, but Notre Dame is the first team out. We have our first variance from their model, but is there really a real world scenario in which a 10-win Fighting Irish team misses the CFP? It’s possible but not likely.
Penn State and Texas are next. Both are in the playoffs in the Kelley Ford model. We’re back on track!
Clemson rounds out our top 11. Okay, this is the first sign of weakness in our model. The Tigers will need to either win 10 games or the ACC Championship. If Florida State is one of the top teams in the playoff, they’re winning the ACC, and Clemson is projected to make it to nine wins by Kelley Ford, but 10 wins by the books.
Any obvious weaknesses in our College Football Playoff model
Sadly, yes. Our model doesn’t like the Big 12 nearly as much as the Kelley Ford model does. Utah comes in 15th and Kansas State is 19th in our model. We’ll need to further refine the model to add a conference championship component.
Other than that, the results appear to be reasonable for the most part.
Does our College Football Playoff model provide any best bets?
It sure does. Alabama and LSU are both at plus odds to make the 2024 College Football Playoff, and our model has both getting in safely. Look to load up on both.
Florida State is also listed at +140 odds to make the College Football Playoff. According to our approach and the Kelley Ford model, the Seminoles are a must-bet at plus odds. Florida State is one of the sharpest bets on the board.
Our model also doesn’t like Michigan as much as the Kelley Ford model. We’ve got a 10-win Notre Dame team pushing the eight-win Wolverines out of the college football playoff.
Do You Need Even More College Football Content?
If you’re gearing up for the 2024 college football season and want even more predictions and best bets, SGPN has you covered. The Sports Gambling Podcast has in-depth conference previews for every conference, even the PAC-2.
Also, The College Football Experience goes even deeper on every single FBS team with win total picks and college playoff best bets. Check out our previews, take our best bets, and let it ride!
