The NFL season will be quickly approaching. It’s time to sit down and start building your NFL futures portfolio. While it’s great making against the spread bets, game-prop bets, and in-game bets, the futures market is always fun. With futures, you can turn a bet into a season-long sweat that will take you up to Week 18! Let’s take a look at some of the top NFL rookie futures that I’m betting.
The Top NFL Rookie Futures
Fernando Mendoza 2350.5 Passing Yards (Over -114/Under -114)
The first NFL rookie futures bet to look at is circling none other than the number one pick in the draft, Fernando Mendoza. Do we think he’ll start over 50% of the games? Or will Mendoza sit behind Kirk Cousins for the majority of the year? That’s what you’ll have to weigh when deciding on this one. Mendoza’s over/under passing yards is set at 2,350.5.
Personally, I give Kirk Cousins four games. Four games starting, the first quarter of the season, before the Raiders turn the ball over to their rookie quarterback. They won’t have much to lose, given that I don’t think they’ll be competing this year. That gives Mendoza 13 games in my predictions.
If he plays 13 games as I expect, he’ll only need to average 181 yards a game in order to exceed this. That’s 20 less than Geno Smith averaged per game last year. I’m taking a chance that the number one pick gets playing time sooner, rather than later. I’m taking over 2,350.5 passing yards at -114.
Carnell Tate 775.5 Receiving Yards (Over -114/Under -114)
The Titans are hoping that Cam Ward makes a big leap in his sophomore season this year. They provided some help in the draft by selecting wide receiver Carnell Tate. Tate’s receiving yards are sitting at an over/under of 775.5.
Last year, the leading receiver on the team was tight end Chig Okonkwo with 560. Elic Ayomanor added another 515. However, Tate is a far better wide receiver than either of them.
The biggest question is how targets will be distributed. This is a much different team than last year. Not only did they draft Carnell Tate, but they also brought in Wan’Dale Robinson. Tate will be competing with Robinson, Calvin Ridley, and Ayomanor still.
Okonkwo is gone, and his second-most targets have to go somewhere. Tate will do more with those. This will be a close one, but I’m taking the over 775.5 receiving yards and expecting Ward to take a big step forward in production.
Jordyn Tyson 800.5 Receiving Yards (Over -114/Under -114)
The next NFL rookie futures bet depends on another quarterback taking a step forward. That quarterback is Tyler Shough, who will be the Saints’ starter after taking over last year.
The Saints went out and got Jordyn Tyson in the draft to help Shough proceed. They also took wide receiver Bryce Lance later on. Other players who will compete to steal the targets and yardage from Tyson include veteran wide receiver Chris Olave and tight end Juwan Johnson.
Last year, the two leading receivers on the team were Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson. The second leading receiver was Rashid Shaheed, with 449 yards, and Devaughn Vele with 293.
With Olave, Johnson, and Vele all still there, and Lance likely to get targets as well, I just don’t see Tyson getting to this number. Is it possible that he will get 700 yards? Yes. Will he get over 800? I don’t think so. I’m riding the under on this one.
KC Concepcion 600.5 Receiving Yards (Over -114/Under -114)
The next NFL rookie futures bet to discuss is KC Concepcion of the Cleveland Browns. I’m trying to take my bias out of this. However, I don’t have much faith in the Cleveland Browns. Whether it’s Deshaun Watson or Shedeur Sanders taking snaps for them, I don’t expect them to be very competitive.
That means new rookies like Denzel Boston and KC Concepion may have a hard time racking up a decent amount of yards. His current over/under for receiving yards is 600.5 receiving yards.
Last year, through the quarterback turmoil, the leading receiver was tight end Harold Fannin Jr. with 731 yards. Behind him was Jerry Jeudy with 602 yards. Those two players are still both there. Isaiah Bond, who KC Concepcion is expected to outperform for a starting job, had 338 receiving yards. He’s also still on the team and will get snaps.
600.5 receiving yards just feels like a bit too much for this Browns team that is in an eternal rebuild. I’m taking the under at -114.
Jeremiyah Love 900.5 Rushing Yards (Over -114/Under -114)
This is the most intriguing NFL rookie futures bet. The Cardinals took Jeremiyah Love with their first pick. Many people thought the running back from Notre Dame was the best offensive player in the draft. He’ll immediately step into an Arizona team and take the starting spot.
However, is this team improved enough to help him get to 900.5 rushing yards, where his over/under is sitting? Last year, the Cardinals only had two running backs exceed 300 yards. Some of this was due to injuries. However, more of it was just a dysfunction of the team in general.
Now, they roll into the season with either Jacoby Brissett or Carson Beck as their starters. I’m concerned that with these two options at quarterback, the defensive box will be loaded with a plan to stop Love and make those quarterbacks beat them.
On top of that, even though the Cardinals invested in Love with their first pick, they still have Tyler Allgeier, whom they paid in the offseason. They also still have James Conner and Trey benson. I’m going to take under 900.5 rushing yards at -114 on a team that I expect to struggle this year.
