Welcome to Week 11! It’s another week that’ll kick off with a divisional showdown on Prime for Thursday Night Football. This time it’s an AFC East showdown. The 2-7 New York Jets will head to Foxborough, Massachusetts, to face the 8-2 New England Patriots. The Patriots are massive favorites, but we’ve seen an interesting trend of these divisional games being close on the short week. Can the Jets keep that trend up? Let’s dive into this Jets-Patriots Thursday Night Football picks, preview, and best bets.
The New York Jets are riding high off their second win of the season, this time over the Cleveland Browns. Justin Fields had just 54 passing yards, 42 of which came on a screen pass to Breece Hall. Yet, it was still enough to get the job done. Hall wore the Browns defense out on the ground, and the Jets’ special teams delivered, scoring twice on kick returns. Will Justin Fields be the starter this week? That’s top secret information in the Jets’ quest to just completely catch their opponents off guard, but probably. Garrett Wilson will also miss this game, and possibly a couple of weeks going forward. Another big blow to the Jets’ passing offense.
The New England Patriots have been one of the biggest surprises in 2025. At 8-2 they currently hold the third seed in the AFC playoffs based on tiebreakers, but have the same record as the current #1 seed Indianapolis Colts. They’ve received some flak about their schedule being weak, but answered the call last week against a tough Tampa Bay team in Tampa. Drake Maye has looked every part of an MVP candidate, and rookie TreVeyon Henderson had a breakout game with Rhamonde Stevenson injured. Henderson put up 147 yards on 14 carries against the Buccaneers.
Thursday Night Football Picks, Preview, and Best Bets: New York Jets at New England Patriots
Breece Hall Under 60.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
The New England Patriots have played in 10 games this season. One running back has crossed the 50-yard mark rushing against them this year. It was Sean Tucker for the Buccaneers last week, and he only got to 53 yards. Devon Achane, James Cook, and Bijan Robinson, all some of the biggest names when it comes to running backs in the NFL, weren’t able to crack 50 yards against this rush defense. On a short week behind a questionable Jets offensive line, there is no reason to think that’ll change on Thursday.
Patriots’ defense has NOT allowed an opposing running back more than 55 yards this season.
– Sixth in scoring defense (19.2 PPG)
– 12th in drop-back EPA
– fifth in third-down defense
– 79.2 Rushing Yards Allowed/Game, fewest in league
– 3.8 Yards Per Carry, second lowest pic.twitter.com/BRNGIjbhnF— Jamie Freya (@sportsmonetize) November 11, 2025
Drake Maye Over 239.5 Passing Yards (-115)
I wrote Maye up last week in my weekly NFL Prop Shop article for over 243.5 passing yards, which was an easy cash as he tossed for 270. They’ve dropped his number this week, because it’s a Thursday game, or maybe they don’t think he’ll need to throw much against the Jets? Either way, I think he’ll repeat it this week.
Since Week 2, Maye had eight straight games passing for over 200 yards, all while having a 100+ passer rating. Last week, he threw for over 200, but didn’t quite hit the passer rating mark. He’s crossed 240 yards in seven of the Patriots’ games this season, including five of the last six games. The exception in that six-game stretch was his record-setting 91.3% completion percentage game against the Titans, where he just didn’t need to keep throwing. Maye had multiple big-play receivers at his disposal; it’s hard to nail down which he’ll target any given week, but it doesn’t matter for this bet.
New England Patriots -12.5 (-110)
We’ve had a string of underdogs covering in divisional Thursday Night Football games, even when it seemed like they shouldn’t. But this isn’t any divisional game; it’s the New York Jets. It’s the Jets coming off a win and back-to-back wins at that, which is a great fade spot. It’s the Jets going into New England. All Drake Maye and company have to do is win by two touchdowns over this team? Sign me up. The Patriots are 7-3 against the spread in 2025, including blowout wins against bad teams like the Browns, Panthers, and Titans. The Patriots tend to start slow, so you may get a shorter live line, but they typically end games on strong runs. Give me Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel to get it done at home on a Thursday Night.
