Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first scorer props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first scorer bets for Christmas Day. Go here for NBA Championship odds.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first scorer props for Christmas Day.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First Scorer Props – Christmas Day
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics
Tipoff – 5:00 pm EST
TD Garden – Boston, MA
Broadcast – ABC
Both of these teams have seen some inconsistency when it comes to their center play and jump balls in general. Joel Embiid’s health has been on the fritz and Kristaps Porzingis has hardly been a beacon of health. However, it does look like both will be here for Christmas Day and being so, I favor the 76ers on the first score. Embiid has a 12.5% advantage over Porzingis when it comes to winning the tip. Additionally, the 76ers have been much better at converting their chances this year. They have a 13.7% advantage when it comes to first bucket success rate. That’s good enough for me to look to the visitors for a play here.
While this play leans a bit on the chalky side, you have to get down with Joel Embiid here. While the play log numbers from early game action this year shows some support for Tyrese Maxley, all of that changes when Embiid is in the game. In the last two games he appeared in, he not only took the first shot for the 76ers, but he took two of the first three in both. With that kind of volume, you have to assume they’ll go to him again early in this one.
First Scorer Bet for Christmas Day: Joel Embiid (+400)
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Golden State Warriors
Tipoff – 8:00 pm EST
Chase Center – San Francisco, CA
Broadcast – ABC
This game is a tough one to call on the first bucket because the teams are so tight when it comes to their success rate. The Warriors have a mild 5.1% advantage in the amount of times they’re scoring first. However, the first possession is a wild swing in the other direction. The Lakers are winning the tip 19.7% more times than the Warriors. That’s not a stat that can be overlooked. On the year, tip winners are getting 66.3% of the first buckets. With that stat in tow, let’s take someone on the Lakers in the evening game.
There are a lot of big names that people immediately gravitate towards when they look to this Lakers roster. However, those names rarely show up in the early game log. Instead, the down ballot options here wind up being tremendous values and there is one in particular I like for Christmas Day. Max Christie didn’t see a lot of early action in the last game Los Angeles played, but he did prior to that. He took the second shot the Lakers saw in each of the two games prior. With Golden State allowing 17.3 three-pointers per game over their last three games, I also like the chances of this early score coming from deep.
First Scorer Bet for Christmas Day: Max Christie (+1000)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first scorer bets for Christmas Day, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
