After years of constant drama, contract negotiations, and angry fans, the 12-team College Football Playoff is finally here. Sorry to South Carolina, Alabama, Ole Miss, and Miami, who barely missed out on this one. Let’s get into my College Football Playoff Underdog Pick’em selections for round one!
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College Football Playoff Underdog Pick’em Selections
10 Indiana (11-1) at 7 Notre Dame (11-1)
Jeremiyah Love Higher Than 18.5 Yards Longest Rush
This matchup among two Indiana schools is a true clash of styles. Say what you want about Indiana’s strength of schedule, but they have one of the best rush defenses in the nation. They rank 2nd in the country in opponent yards per rush attempt and 1st in opponent rushing yards per game.
On the other hand, the Fighting Irish (who have also played a weak schedule) love to ground and pound. They rank 11th in the country in rush yards per game and 2nd in rushing yards per attempt. In fact, the ground game makes up 53.3% of Notre Dame’s offensive attack –good for the 16th-highest rate in the country.
Something has to give here. Some will point to Indiana’s game against Ohio State, where the Buckeyes rushed for 115 yards, as a precursor to this one. I don’t entirely disagree, but this Notre Dame offensive line doesn’t quite stack up to Ohio State’s back in November.
That said, I will be backing the best player on the field, Jeremiyah Love. “Longest rush” is a bit tricky, but I believe he has this in the bag. Love has gone higher than this number in 8/12 games this season. TreVeyon Henderson was able to break out with a 39-yard rush in his meeting with Indiana.
Love gets it done here.
11 SMU (10-2) at 6 Penn State (10-2)
Drew Allar Higher than 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
No matter how I look at this one, I have a tough time seeing it as a close game, and I am no James Franklin/Penn State believer. SMU is simply outmatched in every facet of the game. They deserve to be in the playoff, but they don’t stack up to the top teams in this tournament.
A mediocre Clemson team was able to go up and down the field against this SMU defense –not a great sign when the Mustangs now play a team that was able to put 37 points on the number-one team in the country just two weeks ago. Cade Klunik passed for 262 yards and 4 TDS, and there’s no reason Drew Allaar can’t put up a similar stat line, especially at home.
12 Clemson (10-3) at 5 Texas (11-2)
Quinn Ewers Higher Than 0.5 Interceptions
As I said, I am not high on this Clemson squad. They are average at best and only made the playoff because of their victory in the ACC Championship game. Texas should handle business in this one quite easily, but I still think Quinn Ewers will find a way to throw one to the wrong team.
Since suffering his ankle injury, Ewers has not been the same quarterback, as fans and media figures alike have called for Arch Manning to start for the Longhorns. The quality of Ewers’ throws has decreased drastically, as they seem to float in the air, especially when his feet aren’t set.
Ewers has thrown three interceptions in his last two games, and I think more are coming.
9 Tennessee (10-2) at 8 Ohio State (10-2)
Will Howard Lower Than 12.5 Rushing Yards
Will Howard Higher Than 0.5 Interceptions
This Ohio State roster stacks up with any other roster in the country. The “20 million dollar team” is no joke. They have studs all over the field on both sides of the ball. That said, I don’t understand why Ryan Day landed on Will Howard as the team’s QB in 2024.
Howard always seems to make critical mistakes when the opportunity is greatest. Of course, the slide against Oregon comes to mind, but Howard threw five interceptions against Michigan, Indiana, Nebraska, and Penn State. I think he throws another one against the Vols here.
Tennessee’s best position group is their defensive line, who can get at Howard and either force him into bad decisions or sack him for negative rushing yards.
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