UFC Tampa: Covington vs Buckley – Predictions & Best Bets

UFC Tampa: Covington vs Buckley comes to us this week from the Sunshine State. The main event features a pair of welterweights looking to stake their claim for a top 5 opponent in the new year. The co-main sees fan favorite Cub Swanson looking to put on yet another of his signature performances when he faces Billy Quarantillo. We’ll hit those fights and dig through the rest of the card to give you our UFC Tampa best bets. Come check out these UFC Tampa picks for Saturday.

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UFC Tampa: Covington vs Buckley – Predictions & Best Bets

Joaquin Buckley – Wins via (T)KO (+140)

We know you want some action on that main event, but there is just too much juice on the Buckley moneyline now and we can’t feel compelled to trust Covington – especially on short notice and after that last performance. As a result, let’s get down with Buckley and his (T)KO stoppage line. Sure, Covington is known for being durable, but he hasn’t really faced a big power puncher in some time. Additionally, Buckley has shown some high level wrestling and a late ground and pound TKO doesn’t seem out of the question either.

Ramon Tavares ML (-110) vs. Davey Grant

Perhaps my favorite moneyline on this whole card is Tavares. He has shown superb boxing in his UFC and Contender Series fights. His hands have always been sharp and he knows how to put a pace on people. While Grant has always been good, he’s fallen in love with his hands a bit too much recently. While it has played up for him in a few fights, I’m not sure the 38-year old has what it takes to keep up in this one.

Michael Johnson – Wins via (T)KO (+120)

The gastank of Ottman Azaitar is well documented as one of the worst out there. He look completely gassed en route to getting TKOed in his last fight – and that one only lasted four minutes. Now he’ll step in there with Johnson, who may have his best days behind him. Despite that, Johnson has always been able to put that pace up for 15 minutes and has been particularly durable. As long as he gets Azaitar to work early, he should cruise to a stoppage in the second here.

Joel Alvarez – Wins Inside the Distance (-130)

Alvarez has 21 career wins. Alvares also happens to have 21 career stoppages. Do you see a pattern?

The guy just goes in and finishes fights and against guys who don’t get finished. Elves Brenner had never been taken out of there until Alvarez got to him in the next fight. This line is so close because people trust the durability of Drakkar Klose. However, it’s important to remember that even Beneil Dariush KOed him.

Adrian Yanez ML (+180) vs. Daniel Marcos

The public disrespect on Adrian Yanez is really insane to me. This opened at nearly even-money and has ballooned up to this point. I’m not sure why with just three fights in there for Marcos – one of which was an ugly split with Davey Grant. Meanwhile, Yanez is 7-2 in the UFC and has only lost to super high level competition. Additionally, he clearly has a power advantage in this one and should be able to be first in most striking exchanges.

Fernando Padilla – Wins via Sumbission (+700)

If you read this column often, you know I always end with a bang. Fernando Padilla is coming off a d’arce choke finish. That might not be surprising when you consider his grappling roots, but may be if you only look at his record. He faces Sean Woodson, who has been stopped by submission by Julian Erosa via d’arce choke. The long arms are your friend for that submission and Padilla has it – let’s roll the dice.

If you’d like even more UFC Tampa: Covington vs Buckley bets, be sure to check out the MMA Gambling Podcast. The guys are dropping weekly episodes to make you the smartest guy at the bar.