Surprise, surprise – Saturday’s UFC Fight Night in the UFA Apex is headlined by middleweights, as the UFC is wont to do. But wait – these two 185-pounders are actually good! Plus, the bantamweight co-main event is pretty, pretty, pretty good as well. Here are your UFC Vegas 99 Predictions & Best Bets so you can make Saturday night a profitable one.
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UFC Vegas 99 Predictions & Best Bets
Michel Pereira (+122) vs Anthony Hernandez
The aforementioned middleweights would be #13 ranked Anthony ‘Fluffy’ Hernandez and #14 ranked Michel ‘Demolidor’ Pereira. And I’m going with the dog – Pereira – to win what should be a very interesting matchup.
Pereira is a solid grappler with very good submission skills and takedown defense – all things that will be needed to fend off grappling specialist Hernandez. However, the key here is the striking – Pereira is much, much better than Hernandez on the feet. He’s also going to be bigger and stronger than the American. Pereira for plus money is the play.
Kyler Phillips (-440) vs Rob Font
Generally, you want to back the younger fighter in a matchup – the stats lay bare that that is the winning play. That is especially the case with lighter weight classes like bantamweight. So Kyler Phillips – eight years Rob Font’s junior – is my play here.
Plus, Font is slumping, dropping two straight and four of his last five (to be fair, all the losses were to elite talent). And Phillips isn’t just younger – he’s dangerous and dynamic on the feet and the mat.
Charles Johnson (-225) vs Sumudaerji
It took him a bit, but Charles ‘InnerG’ Johnson is rolling now in the UFC, winning three straight fights, including his last fight via TKO. Sumudaerji, meanwhile, has been submitted in back-to-back fights.
Johnson has four submission wins, so there’s a chance he will tap out his Tibetan opponent on Saturday. But I like the inside-the-distance prop play for him more – it pays out +225.
Jean Matsumoto (-218) vs Brad Katona
To the main event of the prelims we go, another bantamweight fight, this one between 15-0 Jean Matsumoto and two-time The Ultimate Fighter winner Brad Katona. And, like the bantamweight fight above, I’m going with the youth.
Matsumoto is eight years younger than Katona, and far more dangerous than his Canadian-Irish counterpart. Matsumoto finishes people with strikes and submissions, while Katona is basically a points fighter.
Elise Reed (-175) vs Jessica Penne
Jessica Penne is 41-years-old and Elise Reed is 31. Have you caught on to a pattern with my UFC Vegas 99 picks this week?! I’m a self-hating old guy, apparently.
Not only is Penne old – especially for a strawweight – but she’s also been out of action for over a year and hasn’t won a fight since 2021. Reed should be able to use her physicality to grind out a decision victory (Reed via decision +110 might be the better play than the moneyline).
If you’d like even more UFC Vegas 99 picks, be sure to check out the MMA Gambling Podcast. The guys are dropping five episodes a week to make you the smartest guy at the bar.
