UFC Paris: Moicano vs St. Denis comes to us this week from Paris, France. Renato Moicano looks to pick up his biggest win yet. Meanwhile, Benoit St. Denis looks to get back to his winning ways on home soil. We hit that fight and dug through the rest of the card to give you our UFC Paris best bets. Come check out these UFC Paris picks for Saturday.
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UFC Paris: Moicano vs St. Denis – Predictions & Best Bets
Ivan Erslan ML (-110) vs. ion Cutelaba
Usually I’m a little hesitant to get behind light heavyweight prospects who haven’t proven themselve in the UFC yet. However, I do really like what I’ve seen from Erslan. He’s shown that he can go deep into fights and took the KSW champion to a decision. He swarms well with combinations and with as bad as Cutelaba has been as of late, I think this is a great spot for him.
Nora Cornolle ML (+175) vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti
This line confused me as I really expected Cornolle to come in as a favorite here. While Cavalcanti won the first fight, that was half a decade ago when Cornolle had never fought professionally yet. Now, all these years later, Cavalcanti has shown some issues that I think Cornolle can exploit. She fought just a month ago, which isn’t easy to rebound from. Plus, in that fight she was backed up for most of the fight. While she was able to stick and move, she only won a split. If she follows that gameplan against the Frenchwoman, I think Cornolle will be able to take at least two rounds.
Brendan Allen +3.5 (-115) vs Nassourdine Imavov
I think the value sits on the side of Allen right now on the moneyline (+180 currently). However, I just couldn’t get myself to that bet yet. As a result, I’m taking a look at his spread here. Imavov has just one finish in his last five fights. Additionally, the grappling of Allen should take a round for him in here somewhere. Worst case scenario I think Allen drops this one 29-28 across the board, which gives this tremendous value.
Oumar Sy vs Da Woon Jung – Over 1.5 Rounds (+120)
Sy has finished each of his last three fights in the first round, which is why this is juiced to the under. However, this will be his toughest test to date. Jung has a 77% takedown defense rate, which should slow the Frenchman’s ability to get the finish. Jung has also only been submitted once in the last nine years and it came late in the fight when he tired out. His gas should keep him in this one early as we sweat it out.
Ailin Perez – Over 4.5 Takedowns (-110)
We’re going to get down on some statistical props here as well. This fight is likely to go the distance and Perez has 18 takedowns in her last three fights. That’s six per fight and she’s only had one under this total. Additionally, Daria Zhelezniakova was taken down three times in her UFC debut, which shows the hole is there. I think Perez hits some, but also expect Zhelezniakova to get up enough to help this prop along.
Gabriel Miranda – Wins via Submission (+1200)
I always love to end these things with a bomb. Last time out, we took Gerald Meerschaert by submission at +510 and cashed that thing. I like another submission specialist to get the job done here. While Morgan Charriere has looked good lately and Miranda is just 1-1 in the UFC, we have to consider the strength of schedule. Miranda held his own early, up a weight class against Benoit Saint-Denis. Then he proceeded to submit Shane Young in no time at all. Although he hasn’t been submitted recently, Charriere has lost to plenty of grapplers in the past – enough to make this worth a sprinkle.
If you’d like even more UFC Paris: Moicano vs St. Denis bets, be sure to check out the MMA Gambling Podcast. The guys are dropping weekly episodes to make you the smartest guy at the bar.
