The Round of 12 is set! Four drivers have been eliminated, and playoff points have been reset for the second round of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. The Round of 12 starts at Kansas Speedway on Sunday, September 29th at 3:00 p.m. ET on USA Network. Let’s take a look at the NASCAR picks, odds, and playoff picture for Kansas Speedway.
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When NASCAR showed up to Kansas in the spring, we left with the closest finish in NASCAR history. Kyle Larson edged out Chris Buescher by .0001 in a finish that would end up keeping Buescher out of the playoffs. Kansas has delivered quite a few thrillers since the Next Gen car, and this week is stacked up to provide another great race.
With the wild card of Talladega looming as the second race of the Round of 12, followed by the Charlotte Roval to wrap up the round, Kansas is an important track for the 12 remaining playoff drivers. A win here locks you into the Round of 8, and like Joey Logano’s win last round takes the pressure off the next two races.
After the reset Kyle Larson sits atop the standings with a +39 cushion to the cut line, giving him almost a full mulligan in this round. Christopher Bell is +24, Tyler Reddick +20. William Byron +14, Ryan Blaney +11, Denny Hamlin +7, Chase Elliott +6, and Joey Logano +4 round out the eight drivers above the cut line heading into Kansas. Every driver below the cut line is within seven points of the line. Those drivers are Austin Cindric -4, Daniel Suarez -6, Alex Bowman -7 and Chase Briscoe -7.
NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Playoff Picture: Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway
Kyle Larson +400
Denny Hamlin +550
Tyler Reddick +850
Christopher Bell +1100
William Byron +1400
Ryan Blaney +1500
Chase Elliott +1600
Martin Truex Jr +1600
Chris Buescher +2000
Brad Keselowski +2000
Bubba Wallace +2000
Ty Gibbs +2500
Joey Logano +2500
Kyle Busch +2500
Ross Chastain +3000
Alex Bowman +4000
Chase Briscoe +4500
Daniel Suarez +6500
Noah Gragson +6500
Michael McDowell +11000
Justin Haley +11000
Josh Berry +11000
Carson Hocevar +11000
Austin Dillion +11000
Austin Cindric +13000
Todd Gilliland +15000
Erik Jones +15000
Ryan Preece +15000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +23000
Corey Lajoie +23000
John Hunter Nemechek +28000
Harrison Burton +40000
Zane Smith +40000
Jimmie Johnson +40000
JJ Yeley +50000
Daniel Hemric +50000
Ty Dillion +50000
Kaz Grala +50000
Chris Buescher Over Martin Truex Jr (+120)
I’m in full fade of Martin Truex Jr mode until we see something different from the driver of the 19 car. It makes me sad to see a legend of the sport going out this way, but things have been rough for the 2017 champion, and we’re here to make money. Over the last eight races, 20th is Truex’s best finish which came at Watkins Glen. Going back over the last 16 races, in 13 of those 16 it’s been 20th or worse for Truex. Eighth at Pocono, ninth at New Hampshire, and 15th at Iowa are the only finishes better than 20 he’s had. His history at Kansas Speedway is amazing, but whether he’s just checked out, or can’t catch a break I’m leaning on current form with him.
When it comes to comparisons with Buescher, Buescher has beaten Truex in eight of the last nine races, a Truex 35th compared to Buescher’s 36th at Atlanta is the only race where Truex got the better of Buescher. Expanding over the 16-race slump for Truex, Buescher has landed on the better side of the head-to-head on 14 occasions. The Atlanta race and Truex’s eighth to Buescher’s 11th at Pocono are the only ones Buescher has lost. Buescher also finished sixth at Michigan, the most recent comparable track we have, to Truex’s 24th. In the spring race here it was once again Buescher on the good side, as he finished second to Kyle Larson in the closest finish in NASCAR history.
Alex Bowman Top 10 (+160)
The books have gifted us some great top-10 bets as of late and this is this week’s offering. Alex Bowman has been money at Kansas Speedway. He’s on a streak of four top-10 finishes in a row at the track. Over the last 11 races at Kansas Speedway, Bowman has eight top 10s and twice finished 11th place. He’s either in the top 10 or within a spot of it each time they come to this track.
Since Kansas 2018 #2 minus spring 2021 where he had alternator problems, Alex Bowman has a 7.4 average finish and he’s had a result in the top 11 every race.
— Ryan (@ifantasyrace) September 24, 2024
NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Playoff Picture: Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway
Bubba Wallace Top 10 (+120)
Another top 10 to like a lot at Kansas Speedway is Bubba Wallace. The driver of the 23XI Toyota has been great at Kansas along with his teammates whether it’s been Kurt Busch or Tyler Reddick. All three drivers have scored wins in Kansas’s fall race, Wallace’s coming in the fall of 2022.
The spring wasn’t kind to Wallace when both he and his teammate just seemed off. Last fall he led three laps and finished second in stage one before a flat tire while running in third place ended his day. Before that, it was finishes of fourth, first, 10th, and 14th for Bubba. Without the pressure of the playoffs on him, Bubba can go into his favorite track and land a top 10. He’s well worth the outright bet at 20/1 as well.
Tyler Reddick to Win (+850)
Sticking in the 23XI camp, Tyler Reddick is way too good to pass up on a number like this. As mentioned earlier, Reddick won this race last fall, stealing the win from team co-owner Denny Hamlin on a late-race restart. While the team just missed it in the spring, Reddick was on his game at Michigan just a couple of weeks ago, capturing the win at the most recent comparable track we have to look at. Look for the regular season champion to be strong in the land of Oz on Sunday.
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