April might seem a long way off right now, especially for soccer fans seeing their teams starting off in the new Premier League 2024/25 season. Yet, for stats-based bettors, April is historically an interesting month for the Premier League. Why? Because it tends to be the month with the most goals scored on average.
There are a couple of reasons why this is the case. For instance, in April (the last full month of fixtures before the season comes to an end), struggling teams tend to be more attacking, throwing caution to the wind to avoid being relegated. Other theories suggest that player fatigue might play a role, whereas conversely, the fact teams have hit their stride might add to the average goal tallies (yes, we are aware that these are competing theories).
August, on average, tends to be the month for the lowest number of goals scored. Effectively, it’s for the opposite reasons highlighted above. So, why is this important? Well, understanding trends across a season – and across different seasons is important for bettors, particularly those using statistics for bet builders.
Stats are key to bet builders
The rise of this style of betting (known as same-game parlays in the US) has been remarkable, arguably supplanting all other markets for betting on individual games. Indeed, some sportsbooks will now have dedicated bet builder hubs online. On Premier League gamedays, you can see a surge of activity on social media, with tipsters providing advice on statistic-based bet builders.
Keeping up to date with statistics is important. In fact, the only way to use bet builders sagely is with statistics. Other markets are offered – a player to hit a post/crossbar, a team to get the first corner, etc. – but these are largely unquantifiable markets with random outcomes. Sticking to quantifiable stats is your key to success.
As mentioned, the goals scored totals form an integral part of bet builder strategies. By and large, the number of goals scored in the Premier League has been trending upwards. The average across the season for the last 13 years is somewhere around 1050 goals, whereas the last three seasons have produced 1,072, 1,084, and 1,085 respectively. That might not seem like a lot, but the small margins are key when adding legs like over/under 2.5 goals to your betslip.
We can also look at some of the months from last season to identify trends. As mentioned, April was the highest with an average of 3.52 goals per game – 190 goals across the month. May, too, was high, with 3.45 goals per game. August was the lowest, with just 3.10 per game. Interestingly, there were dips in January (3.25) and February (3.13). Is it suggestive of a slowdown after the hard Christmas and New Year schedule in the Premier League?
VAR has influenced statistical trends
Other trends are interesting, too. For example, some bet builders will offer legs on penalties awarded, missed, and/or scored. The rate of conversion for penalties was exceptionally high in 2023/24, reaching 90%, which was up from an exceptionally low 74.7% the previous season. Yet, overall, the number of penalties awarded has been trending down – 93 last season and 87 in 2022/23. In 2020/2, 125 penalties were awarded. One of the reasons is, of course, the changes to VAR rules, including handballs.
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Over the last three seasons, the average number of corners per game has increased from 11.4 (2021/22) to 11.6 (2022/23) to 11.8 (last season). Again, this is indicative of a trend of more attacking play. And, again, while the uptick looks slight, these fine margins are important to recognize for statistical bet builders on Premier League markets. Yellow cards have risen in a similar pattern to corners, averaging 3.46 per match in 2021/22, 3.53 in 2022/23, and 3.58 last season. Again, some of this may be attributed to tweaks in VAR rules or new rules governing dissent.
If you are using bet builders for the new season, it is important to be aware of the trends mentioned above. Yet, it is also important to anticipate that some of them can begin to trend the other way. VAR will once again have an impact as new changes come in for the 2023/24 season, as well as other factors, such as managerial changes. The essential tactic is to try to parse out where the bookmakers are offering value through stats-based legs. It’s not always easy, but it’s the best way to have success with bet builders.
