After a rare week off, the UFC is back in action this Saturday with UFC Fight Night: Burns vs Brady (aka UFC Vegas 97), emanating from the UFC Apex. But this isn’t your typical UFC Apex Fight Night – this fight card is actually good, with some meaningful fights on it. Here are your UFC Vegas 97 predictions and best bets.
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UFC Vegas 97 Predictions & Best Bets
Sean Brady (-185) vs Gilbert Burns
One of those aforementioned meaningful fights conveniently is slotted into the main event spot on Saturday, pitting top welterweights Sean Brady and Gilbert Burns. The 38-year-old Burns represents the old guard, and 31-year-old Brady the new wave.
I’m going with the younger man in Brady. While, even at this point in their careers, Burns is probably the better striker and grappler, he isn’t a better wrestler than Brady. I expect Brady to make this a grimy fight and ground out a win on the ground. Plus, it’s hard to back a 38-year-old coming off a knockout loss.
Natalia Silva (-295) vs Jessica Andrade
The co-main event is pretty much a carbon copy of the main, with an up-and-comer (Natalia Silva) going up against a veteran (probably) on their way down (Jessica Andrade). And, once again, I’m taking the youngster.
But I don’t like this line on Silva at all. While Silva is lightning quick, longer, and six years younger, former champ Andrade has proven to still be game, winning her last two fights. I think Silva can dart in and out and stay out of danger, but the -295 price on her is steep.
Steve Garcia (-180) vs Kyle Nelson
The number we’re getting on Steve Garcia I like a lot better, despite Kyle Nelson’s hot run. Garcia is as dangerous as they get at featherweight, with 13 knockouts among his 16 career victories.
Nelson gets hit way too much to last against a guy like Garcia, who not only hits like a truck but also outvolumes his opponents (he lands almost 2.5 times more strikes per minute than he gets hit with). But with his T/KO prop only at -114, it’s probably best to play it safe and just take him on the moneyline.
Vanessa Demopoulos (+250) vs Jacqueline Amorim
Let’s get you a big dog pick here. Even if she doesn’t win, Vanessa Demopoulos will certainly fight for our money. But, obviously since I’m picking her, I think she can upset Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu ace Jacqueline Amorim.
Demopoulos is hell on wheels in the cage and tough as nails (two turns of phrase, one sentence). While she isn’t better at BJJ than Amorim, she is more physically strong and a very good grappler and wrestler. Let’s roll the dice.
Trevor Peek via T/KO (+300) vs Yanal Ashmouz
We’ll end off with a prop bet. Let’s sprinkle a little money on Mr. Hammerfists himself, Trevor Peek, to finish Yanal Ashmouz with strikes in their main card lightweight fight on Saturday.
Of Peek’s nine pro wins, eight have come via knockout, so +300 is a very nice value play (considering he’s -125 on the moneyline). While Ashmouz has never been stopped in a professional fight, he also has never fought a wildman like Peek.
If you’d like even more UFC Vegas 97 picks, be sure to check out the MMA Gambling Podcast. The guys are dropping weekly episodes to make you the smartest guy at the bar.
